The Fantasy Football Laboratory: Week 10 (2024)
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith has a clear path to being a top 10 tight end in fantasy football in the second half of the season.
Without further ado, let’s head into the lab!
Case Study: Jonnu Smith is a Top-10 Fantasy Football Tight End Moving Forward
For the entire 2024 season, Smith is the PPR TE17 and he’s the PPR TE19 in fantasy points per game. However, the first half of the season has almost been a tale of two seasons for Smith, as his role and presence has grown in recent weeks. See for yourself:
- Weeks 1-4 (4 games): 2.3 receptions, 3.3 targets, and 19.5 yards per game
- Weeks 5-9 (4 games): 5.3 receptions, 6.8 targets, 56 yards per game
Over the last four weeks, he’s the third on the team in routes run, second in percentage of team’s air yards, second in first read rate, and first in target share, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite. During this four-game run, his 0.57 fantasy points per route run is a healthy number, and in fact, it’s higher than Brock Bowers (0.50) and Trey McBride (0.45) for the entire season! With Jaylen Waddle’s lack of presence in the offense, Smith is effectively the third option in the passing attack, and he has at least six targets in four straight games. Miami loves to throw the football, and they’ll continue to do so, meaning Smith has a safe role.
Oh, over the last five weeks of the season, Smith is the PPR TE10 in fantasy points per game, so the blueprint is there for Smith to continue to ascend the ranks at his position.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Hunter Henry has averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game in the three games where Drake Maye started and played the majority of the game. That would be second-best among all tight ends, trailing only George Kittle.
- Over the last three weeks, Jakobi Meyers has a 39.5 percent first read rate, and it was an astronomical 47.8 percent in Week 9 alone.
- In Joe Flacco’s first start in a few weeks, Josh Downs was his preferred guy, as Downs posted a 41.2 percent first read rate, and 33.3 percent target share.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 10
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
Expect a big day from Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 10. This pains me as a Houston Texans fan, but in the lab, we put the fandom aside and trust the numbers. Jalen Pitre had a solid start to the year, but the train has come off the track in recent weeks. Over the last four weeks, Pitre has allowed the second-most yards in slot coverage in the National Football League, per Pro Football Focus, not to mention over 17 yards per reception, three receiving scores, and a 133.0 passer rating when targeted. I like Brown to tally 80+ yards and a touchdown on Sunday Night Football (hopefully in a losing effort). Okay, we can’t fully set aside the fandom!