Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
I’m no doctor nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames. Still, every Thursday (in Week 1’s case, Friday), make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of the experiments I’ve done, hypotheses I’ve tested, and a particular play or bet I’ve cooked up for the week ahead! This week, you’ll find a brief case study on a young wide receiver out west, some notable observations around the league, and a wide receiver on the East Coast who should enjoy his new quarterback!
Without further ado, let’s head into the lab!
Case Study
Ryan Grubb is making the jump from college, and there’s a lot of hype behind the Seattle offense, particularly with a couple of names, a la Kenneth Walker and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Let’s not bury the lede, I’m buying the hype on both guys, but let’s focus in on the sophomore wideout. In his rookie season, the former Ohio State standout caught 63 of 93 targets for 628 yards and four touchdowns, coming in as the WR48 in 2023.
Smith-Njigba can win at many different levels of the field, and Grubb (and Seattle) would benefit from using him more downfield. Last season, he posted a 6.4 average depth of target (aDOT) and 1.32 yards per route run. In the preseason, we got our first glimpse of Smith-Njgiba in this offense, and the underlying numbers were spectacular.
10.3 aDOT and 2.37 yards per route run
Let’s put that into some context compared to some other receivers in the 2023 season:
- CeeDee Lamb: 10.1 aDOT, 2.78 yards per route run
- Jayden Reed: 10.3 aDOT, 2.05 yards per route run
- Jaylen Waddle: 10.4 aDOT, 2.63 yards per route run
It’s hard to garner much from the preseason, but Smith-Njigba getting downfield could feed families for fantasy football in 2024.
Notable Observations
- Chase Brown is the listed kick returner for the Cincinnati Bengals, while Zack Moss is the RB1. Don’t fret. Other players who returned a kick in the preseason for Cincy also made the roster, and I still truly believe that Brown is the RB to own for the Bengals in 2024.
- When you view the Houston Texans depth chart, Dameon Pierce is still the listed backup to Dameon Pierce, while preseason standout Cam Akers is the RB4 per the listed depth chart.
- Kyren Williams was mentioned to be the punt returner for the Rams, and everyone freaked out. However, Blake Corum was the listed kick returner on the depth chart. If the appropriate reaction to Williams was given to Corum, who is actually the running back in Los Angeles? Don’t be surprised if those two are very selective in their returning duties, and in regards to Kyren, he’s the lead dog in the backfield, don’t sweat that.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 1
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the next week to help you as you head into the week ahead. Well, in this instance, we are looking at Week 1, and I’m here to provide a phrase that you will hear often this weekend:
“Jayden Daniels to Terry McLaurin”
Tampa Bay was generous to wide receivers last season and they didn’t really do much to improve their starting trio of cornerbacks. McLaurin has four straight 1,000+ yard seasons, and at least 900 in every season of his professional career, and now, he has the best young quarterback he’s ever had! McLaurin was too cheap on draft day, and his big time production will begin right away in Week 1 against the Bucs, something to the tune of 17+ fantasy points in PPR formats.