Slot Machines Part II

Welcome back for part two of my Slot Machines series. This week, I’m going to discuss slot receivers with the most reliable hands and their fantasy outlook in 2020. In 2019, six players had at least 20 receptions from the slot without a drop. Let’s examine them more closely.

Larry Fitzgerald: 60 receptions without a drop

In 2019: 109, targets, 75 receptions, 804 yards, 4 TD

Current ADP: 178

Larry Legend is like fine wine, he seems to get better with age. No player had more snaps from the slot than Larry Fitzgerald and his 502 snaps. Fitz was once again one of NFL’s most productive slot receivers in 2019. From the slot in 2019, he ranked Top 10 in snaps, targets, receptions, and yards. Kyler Murray looks to take the next step in 2020, but the addition of Deandre Hopkins offers an intriguing twist to Fitzgerald’s value. While Hopkins will demand a large target share, he will also demand a large portion of the defense’s attention. I see Fitzgerald assuming the security blanket role and playing a vital role in what will be a very solid Arizona offense in 2020.

Allen Robinson II: 47 receptions without a drop

In 2019: 154 targets, 98 receptions, 1147 yards, 7 TD

Current ADP: 39

Allen Robinson II aka The Target Monster! In 0.5 PPR, Robinson finished as WR11 in 2019. I didn’t know it was possible for me to like Allen Robinson more than I already did heading into 2020, but Chicago went out and got themselves Nick Foles! The Bears and Rams were the only teams in football to have a duo both go over 500 receiving yards from the slot. Allen Robinson II is a WR1 in my book heading into 2020 and an absolute steal at his current ADP.

Robert Woods: 40 receptions without a drop

In: 2019: 139 targets, 90 receptions, 1134 yards, 2 TD

Current ADP: 59

Yes, teammate Cooper Kupp will most likely lead the league in receptions from the slot. But how often the Rams utilize Woods from the slot is a thing to note. 537 of Robert Woods 1134 yards in 2019 came via the slot. In one of the more pass friendly offenses in the NFL, expect 85 receptions and 1000 yards as a safe floor for Robert Woods in 2020.

Christian Kirk: 34 receptions without a drop

In 2019: 107 targets, 68 receptions, 709 yards, 3 TD

Current ADP: 108

Christian Kirk’s 212 snaps from the slot were the 29th most in 2019. The talk around town is that Kirk will receive more reps from the slot in 2020. While that sounds like an absolute boost to his 2020 value, Christian Kirk’s 41 slot snaps from weeks 9-17 are very concerning. Not only did 89 players run more slot snaps than Kirk over that span, but even teammate Pharaoh Cooper had more than double Kirk’s slot snaps. As long as Fitz is around I’m wary of giving Kirk my blessing as a worthy FLEX option in 2020.

Emanuel Sanders: 29 receptions without a drop

In 2019: 97 targets, 66 receptions, 869 yards, 5 TD

Current ADP: 91

I can not recall the last time I thought the Saints WR2 could be a productive fantasy player. My money is on Manny Sanders changing my mind this upcoming season. Saints wide receivers not named Michael Thomas did little from the slot in 2019. Sanders did some damage from the slot in 2019 with 29 receptions, 312 yards, and a touchdown. Now teamed up with a HOF quarterback, I expect some big games from Emanuel Sanders though Michael Thomas’ strangle on the target share will never go away. Ted Ginn Jr., Tre’Quan Smith, Jared Cook, and Josh Hill combined for 19 touchdowns in 2019! Sanders should take his fair share of trips to the end zone in 2020.

Mike Evans: 21 receptions without a drop

In 2019: 118 targets, 67 receptions, 1157 yards, 8 TD

Current ADP: 23

While Mike Evans isn’t known as a slot receiver, I am glad he popped up on the slot’s “All Hands Team” so I could discuss him. Tampa Bay now has Tom Brady under center which made me ponder Tom’s favorite targets over the past few seasons. The first person who came to mind was Gronk, who is now on the Bucs roster. The other two names were James White and Julian Edelman. Brady loves the slot as we have seen with Edelman and Welker over the years. While Evans will see a few snaps from the slot, Chris Godwin was targeted 68 times in the slot compared to Mike Evans 25 targets in 2019. There are lots of mouths to feed in the Tampa Bay offense and I think Godwin was the bigger winner in the Tom Brady move. I find myself staying away from Mike Evans in current drafts.

IDP- Marlon Humphrey 

While cornerback may not be the safest position when it comes to fantasy football, Marlon Humphrey was a name that stood out to me during my research on the slot. Humphrey is a young player trusted with the duty of slot coverage in a very stout Baltimore defense. Amongst cornerbacks in 2019, Humprey ranked Top 15 in solo tackles, interceptions, and targets. Marlon Humphrey makes plays. In 2019 he deflected 10 passes, had 3 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries, and 2 touchdowns.

Final Takes-

• While Christian Kirk has a bright future, he is currently the third best fantasy option on his own team. Fitz is sticking around for one more year as well and looks to play a security blanket role in the slot for Kyler Murray. Give me Fitz about 70 picks later over Christian Kirk. Fitzgerald and his age do not have the same ceiling Kirk does, but Fitz has a relatively safe floor.
• Allen Robinson is elite. Allen Robinson is a WR1. Draft Allen Robinson.
• In the Rams pass-happy offense, 85 catches for 1000 yards should be considered the floor for Robert Woods.
• Finally, a Saints WR2 finally becomes a viable fantasy option in 2020.
• I am shying away from Mike Evans so far in drafts. Wide receiver is tremendously deep heading into 2020 and with an ADP of 23, I would rather not roll the dice so early on him.