Slot Machines Part I
Exploiting matchups can be a massive asset to your fantasy football toolbag. 2019 gave us prime examples as we saw tight ends finding fantasy success against the Cardinals all season long as well as wide receivers being relatively matchup-proof going up against an injury-riddled Eagles secondary. For me, when bye weeks start to hit, and I need to look elsewhere to fill lineup holes, I always find myself monitoring the weekly slot matchups trying to find an advantage over my fellow league mates.
Over the next few weeks, I will be breaking down some slot receivers to watch out for in 2020, as well as one guy a week lined up across from them for a little IDP twist.
Why exploit the slot in fantasy?
NFL coaches are exploiting opposing defenses via the slot all the time, so, therefore, that’s what we as fantasy football players should be doing as well. Just as you would research a running back’s snap count or looking up wide receivers with the most air yards from the previous week, creating a weekly slot wide receiver performance report should be a priority during your weekly analytic process. Determining which players are receiving the most targets/snaps from the slot, as well as defenses who struggle against opposing slot receivers, will give you a huge advantage over your league mates.
Julian Edelman
In 2019: 147 targets, 100 receptions, 1117 yards, 6 TD
Julian Edelman accrued 101 targets from the slot over the course of the 2019 season, leading the league. Cooper Kupp was the only other player to see 90 plus targets from the slot. Edelman turned those slot targets into 69 catches for 739 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has attained the reputation as one of NFL’s most reliable slot wide receivers, but that looks to change in 2020 to no fault of his own. Unfortunately for Edelman, Tom Brady made his way down to Tampa Bay to team up with Bruce Arians and WWE superstar, Rob Gronkowski. Heading into last season, a run-first approach was all the talk around Patriot’s camp. Now with a second-year quarterback under center, I expect to see a healthy dose of Sony Michel and the Patriots’ running game on offense to help alleviate the pressure on the passing game. Nobody will be stealing Edelman’s reps, but don’t expect the output we’ve seen from him in previous seasons.
Current ADP: 92
Bold Take: Julian Edelman does not top 90 catches in 2020
Jamison Crowder
In 2019: 122 Targets, 78 receptions, 833 yards, 6 TD
What is with all this hype around Denzel Mims?! Has no one learned from drafting Robby Anderson over Jamison Crowder last season? Few quarterbacks utilize the slot as much as Sam Darnold. Remember in week 1 last season when Crowder went off for 14 catches and 99 yards?! Crowder had 5 plus catches in 7 games last season and his 58 receptions from the slot trailed only Edelman, Kupp, and Fitzgerald. Rarely do you see a quarterback miss weeks with mono, therefore Crowder’s 78 receptions, 833 yards, and 6 touchdowns should be considered a safe floor in terms of fantasy performance for this upcoming season.
Current ADP: 124
Bold Take: Crowder gives us a 90 catch, 1,000 yard season
Anthony Miller
In 2019: 85 Targets, 52 receptions, 656 yards, 2 TD
Dede Westbrook was on every analyst’s sleeper list in 2019 thanks to Nick Foles arriving in Jacksonville. Nick Foles is a huge upgrade at the quarterback position for the Chicago Bears. From week 8 on, Anthony Miller ranked Top 5 in targets, receptions, and yards from the slot. No matter the quarterback under center, the slot situation in Chicago is one to watch. Last season Miller led the Bears with 363 snaps from the slot, with Allen Robinson garnering 259 snaps from the slot. Anthony Miller came on hot to end the season, so what changed? Weeks 1-8 the Bears had their top two slot options run a total of 246 snaps from the slot. Weeks 9-17 that number jumped to 376. I’m currently licking at the chops over Anthony Miller’s current value.
Current ADP: 166
Bold Take: Anthony Miller finishes as a top 25 WR in 0.5 PPR scoring in 2020
Mecole Hardman
In 2019: 56 targets, 26 receptions, 538 yards, 6 TD
Mecole Hardman’s 143 snaps from the slot ranked 52nd in the NFL, but that did not stop him from tying the league lead for touchdowns from the slot with 6! Hardman is going later in drafts and who doesn’t want a piece of the Kansas City offense? Glancing over Hardman’s 2019 schedule, they played the Colts, Packers, and Ravens who all struggled in slot coverage. Hardman scored in two of the three games but did his damage in all three games from the slot.
Though I think Hardman could be a nightmare from the slot for opposing defenses, he’s still an injury away from being anything more than a streamer. Weeks 1-5 when Tyreek Hill missed games because of injury, Hardman saw 76 targets from the slot. Weeks 6-17, he only saw 67 targets from the slot. Regardless, Mecole Hardman can be a solid upside play, especially against defenses who struggle in slot coverage. In back to back seasons, a Chiefs WR sits atop the leaderboard for most touchdowns from the slot. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tyreek Hill goes down to an injury that Hardman can still carry on that tradition and then some making that three years and counting after this season.
Current ADP: 111
Bold Take: Talent trumps and Hardman finds enough playing time to finish as a Top 30 WR
IDP- Logan Ryan
Opportunity is key! In order to make a play on the ball, you must be on the field! Logan Ryan led NFL cornerbacks with 114 targets, 80 receptions allowed, and 83 solo tackles. No other corner saw more than the 96 targets Logan Ryan accumulated while in slot coverage. His 563 coverage snaps from the slot were 123 more than the next closest cornerback. Logan Ryan ranked Top 10 in both Passes Defended (11) and Interceptions (4) in 2019. His 13.3 Fantasy Points Per Game were tops in the league amongst cornerbacks.
For more on IDP Cornerbacks please refer to our “Analyzing the Defensive Back Position” article in order to learn more about the tips for picking the best ones come draft time by clicking here.
Final Takes
- Julian Edelman is going just about where I am willing to pay in terms of ADP. With Brady leaving, I think his upside is limited but he has shown us a solid floor over the last few seasons.
- Jamison Crowder is one of the most undervalued in current drafts. A full season paired up with Sam Darnold could result in a 90 catch season!
- Right now you can snag Anthony Miller with one of the last picks in your draft! Do it with the utmost confidence!
- Mecole Hardman has unreal upside, but his tag is a little high for me. Give me Anthony Miller and Jamison Crowder a round or two later.
- Few defensive players see the opportunity to make plays that Logan Ryan did in 2019. Look for him to tear it up once again in 2020…once he finds a team.
Research the slot! Especially in cases where you find your self stressing over a weekly streamer, exploiting a slot matchup could be the difference between winning or losing.
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