Following an explosive end to 2019, fantasy hopes were high for Arizona Cardinals running back Kenyan Drake coming into this year. But after the first three weeks, Drake owners may be a little disappointed given his fantasy output and the draft cost needed to acquire him. So should we be worried?
After being traded to the Cardinals, Drake ended 2019 with a bang, particularly in the fantasy playoffs. In weeks 15 and 16, he amassed just over 300 rushing yards and five touchdowns from 46 carries, with an additional 27 yards through the air. This type of usage propelled him up draft boards come the 2020 preseason, with the hope that while the offense as a whole would improve, Drake’s fantasy production would similarly see sustained levels of success.
However, so far in 2020 Drake has seen a total of 54 carries for 219 yards, as well as five receptions for 20 yards. In the first three games he has only found the end zone once, back in week 1 against the 49ers, and currently ranks as the RB24 in half-PPR scoring according to FantasyData.
The concern
The main concern behind Drake’s figures so far this year is the lack of receiving work. After moving to the Cardinals last year, Drake saw at least four targets in six of his eight games, finishing with 28 receptions. However, through the first three weeks of this year, he has seen just five targets in total, equating to a lowly 4.8% target share.
In contrast, off-season acquisition DeAndre Hopkins has been a target monster, seeing a staggering 35.6% of the team’s targets and now leads the league in both receptions and yards. Hopkins’ usage in its current state most certainly caps Drake’s upside, and going forward we may have to limit our expectations.
The hope
There are, however, plenty of reasons to be hopeful that better days are ahead for Drake during the rest of the season. First and foremost, Drake has a guaranteed workload as long as he is healthy. Chase Edmonds has seen just 12 carries on the year, while Drake has had 54 – the fifth-most rushing attempts in the league. So even if the targets don’t return to a point we’d like, there is more than enough opportunity for success on the ground.
The most obvious reason for optimism is the schedule, as over the next two weeks the Cardinals play the Panthers and then the Jets in week 5. Both teams rank in the top 6 of fantasy points allowed to the running back, according to FantasyData. Carolina has allowed seven rushing touchdowns so far this year, the most in the league, letting the likes of Josh Jacobs and Austin Ekeler take advantage for week-winning performances.
The lack of touchdowns has been a large part of the slow start this year, and while Kyler Murray may steal some red zone rushing attempts, Drake should be in-line for a couple of stellar weeks.
Conclusion…
So if you have Kenyan Drake, sit tight. The next two weeks should provide more than enough opportunity for fantasy success in positive game scripts against porous defenses. All in all, we shouldn’t be too worried just yet, given the amount of work he is still getting in this improving offense and appears to be a great buy-low target at the moment from any disgruntled owners.