Week 3 of the fantasy football season was sure entertaining! I’m not sure what could possibly go wrong to make sure week 4 isn’t as exciting.
Oh, that’s right…COVID.
As you all have heard by now players and team personnel on the Titans tested positive for the virus putting their availabilities, their previous week’s opponents availabilities, and both of THOSE team’s upcoming opponent’s availability for week 4 in question.
These are the times we live in, I’m afraid. We all knew that this could happen, but I guarantee that NOT ONE fantasy football manager is fully prepared to deal with these circumstances we face. We’re all learning as we go and go we must!
Speaking of going forward you probably should be checking which options are available on the waiver wire before heading into week 4 given the nature of what this outbreak could have on your lineups. If only there was a website that offered that.
OH WAIT…WE DO!
Read our fantasy recommendations on offense and defense posted earlier this week. If the players mentioned are still available, consider picking them up. You never know when they would come in handy, especially this week given the fact that 4 teams might have their players unavailable.
As with every week’s 4-EYED STARTS & SITS, all stats & references will be provided by the wonderful resources over at the following websites:
• FantasyData.com
• PFF.com
• ProFootballReference.com
• PlayerProfiler.com
NOW let’s get down to business, folks!
Here are your 4-EYED Starts & Sits For Week 4!
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow vs. Jaguars: START
Joe Burrow making the defenders look silly 🔥
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/kvAm9XcRLL
— ESPN (@espn) September 27, 2020
2nd in the league in passing attempts (141) among quarterbacks, 9th in passing yards, and tied for QB 13 in TDs scored with 5 rookie Joe Burrow has been playing pretty much as well as one could have predicted given the poor defensive matchups they’ve faced this season. That being said with the running game being ineffective for the Bengals it looks like Burrow and his passing volume are here to stay which is especially helpful this week when then Bengals face the Jaguars. The Jaguars, who rank 17 in pass coverage, 7th in run defense, and 23rd in pass-rushing are a quarterback’s dream defensive matchup. Given the news of the COVID-19 outbreak in the league this past weekend, if your QB happens to miss this week’s slate of action, Burrow is a fantastic fill in!
Other Starts: Matt Ryan & Jared Goff
Derek Carr vs Bills: SIT
Despite the Bills giving up 321 passing yards to the Rams last week, the Bills defense still ranks in the top 10, overall, as well ranking in the top 10 in coverage and pass-rushing, according to PFF. The Rams are considered a high-powered offense for a reason given their prowess in the passing and receiving game. On the other hand, Derek Carr and the Raiders, on the season, are just averaging 261 yards passing on a team that has a fairly balanced run to pass ratio of 52.5 to 47.5. Clearly, if you’ve watched any Raider’s games this season, you’ll have noticed that this team is about two positions when it comes to their offense both in real football and fantasy football: The Running Back & the Tight End.
Notice how QB was missing?!
Fade Carr against this tough defensive matchup this week.
Other Sits: Carson Wentz & Daniel Jones
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon vs. Jets: START
It’s the Jets. The Jets rank 25th in the league as an overall defensive unit. While their run defense DOES rank 13th overall, over the past two weeks they have allowed on average 151.5 rushing yards to opposing teams, and with no Philip Lindsey in the way to steal touches look for Gordon to feast on Thursday Night Football.
Other Starts: Devin Singletary & Darrell Henderson
Joe Mixon vs. Jaguars: SIT
As I mentioned earlier the Jaguars rank 7th in run defense and given his feeble 3.2 yards per carry Mixon is likely to be a fantasy disappointment again this week. For whatever reason, the Bengals want to keep running him in every direction along the offensive line that he’s inefficient at, yet they only run him in the direction he has the MOST success at ( that is along the outside right end) 27% of the time.
A head-scratcher of a situation, indeed.
Other Sits: Jeff Wilson & Malcolm Brown
Wide Receivers
James Washington vs. Titans*: START
No denying @JamesWashington from getting into the end zone‼️
📺 #PITvsNYG on ESPN pic.twitter.com/cNxzqHZKXN
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) September 15, 2020
This recommendation is obviously warranted if the Steelers and Titans DO end up playing in Week 4 given the COVID-19 scare earlier in the week. With Diontae Johnson in the concussion protocol, James Washington is the next man up in this receiving corps behind JuJu Smith-Schuster. In fact, Washington led the team in targets after Johnson’s departure on Sunday. Assuming he lines up at LWR he would face Malcolm Butler in coverage who has allowed, on the season, a 62% catch percentage making him an excellent FLEX option this week.
Other Starts: Allen Robinson & Darius Slayton
Terry McLaurin vs. Ravens: SIT
In theory Terry “F1” should have a great matchup with this week against the Ravens given the fact he would more than likely be covered by Jimmy Smith who has allowed a catch percentage of 75%. However, cornerback Marlon Humphrey has lined up at right cornerback 35% of the time on the season as well as in the slot. While normally a slot coverage guy, the Ravens might use Humprey as a shadow on “F1” severely limiting his upside this week. The fact that Dwyane Haskins stares down his receivers every second of every play isn’t good for McLaurin’s outlook as well!
Other Sits: Allen Lazard (if Davante Adams plays) & A.J. Green
Tight Ends
Noah Fant vs. Jets: START
With being second on the team in targets and first on the team in fantasy points per game scored, Noah Fant should be a lock each week in your lineups. Against the Jets, who are allowing the 9th most fantasy points to the position, look for volume and opportunity to be, again, on Fant’s side in what should be a relatively low scoring affair.
Other Starts: Jimmy Graham & Zach Ertz
Mike Gesicki vs. Seahawks: SIT
Despite leading the team in receiving targets on the season with 19, Mike Gesicki will go up against a Seahawks team which has given up the 4th fewest fantasy points to the position all season. The fact Gesicki has one of the lowest YAC/REC among all tight ends (TE24) shows he is nothing more than a glorified red zone target. His 23 point outing in week 2 is looking like the outlier on the season. Don’t trust him.
Other Sits: Eric Ebron & Hayden Hurst
Defensive Linemen
Aldon Smith vs. Browns: START
Aldon Smith has more sacks than any other NFL player.
This can be stated for the first time since after Week 14 of the 2012 season. The Cowboys edge defender recorded three sacks Sunday vs. Seahawks, pushing his 2020 total to four in three games. pic.twitter.com/ulDQ0Skhdp
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) September 28, 2020
The #1 defensive lineman in FantasyPros IDP scoring, Aldon Smith looked more like he did in week 1 this past week with 23.5 fantasy points on 4 tackles and 3 sacks on the day. Rumblings out of the Cowboys locker room after their week 2 comeback victory were that the team was making Smith take on too many roles as both a defensive end and a linebacker. Recommitting him to only being a pass-rusher paid dividends on Sunday, and with the other all-pro defensive lineman drawing attention from Cleveland’s 3rd ranked offensive line this coming week, Smith should be a solid play again!
Other Starts: Carl Lawson & Chase Winovitch
Robert Quinn vs. Colts: SIT
Despite his 9.5 fantasy point production in week 2, Quinn had another donut of a performance in week 3. For whatever reason pairing Quinn up with Khalil Mack this season hasn’t helped either of their fantasy performances as was expected when Quinn arrived from Dallas after putting up solid numbers alongside fellow pass-rusher Demarcus Lawrence. The Colts have a pass to run ratio of 54.4-45.6, so you would think this would be an excellent matchup for Quinn and Mack to turn up the pressure along their opponent’s offensive line. However, the Colts rank 10th in pass-blocking in the NFL, so any chances of Quinn having a bounce-back week are pretty much shot. If you haven’t already, you can drop Quinn from your rosters ASAP.
Other Sits: Jonathan Allen & Cameron Jordan
Defensive Backs
Jeremy Chinn vs. Cardinals: START
Jeremy Chinn blows up the bubble screen pic.twitter.com/hYOwMbnGCp
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) September 27, 2020
The rookie strong safety out of Southern Illinois is tied with veteran free safety Tre Boston in snap percentage with 99.5% and is getting better and better each week. In weeks 1 and 3 he lined up at strong safety while in week 2 he was lined up at middle linebacker. This guy embodies the swiss army knife role that more strong safeties are playing these days, playing more against the run versus playing in coverage. In fact, he’s played the “moneybacker” role 32% of the time this season. All of this means plenty of opportunity for high tackle volume. Facing a Cardinal’s team which ranks 30th in run blocking, look for Chinn to light it up again this week!
Other Starts: Jordan Poyer & Chuck Clark
Justin Simmons vs. Jets: SIT
Shifting more towards playing free safety than strong safety this season, Simmons as earned a grade on the season at free safety of 65.2 the past two weeks…which is not good. Clearly, his skill-set suits playing that strong safety role that primarily focuses on tackling offensive players the farther downfield they get rather than playing a more coverage based role on the defense. As someone who doesn’t normally crowd the line of scrimmage looking to tackle running backs coming out of the backfield, a lot of his production is passing-dependent. The Jets have no passing attack and they have no rushing attack. Expect a down week from Simmons this week!
Linebackers
Jon Bostic vs. Ravens: START
The Ravens run the ball. Jon Bostic stop the run. He stops the run VERY well. LB20 on the season in total tackles (24; 15 solo & 9 assisted), Bostic leads the linebacking corps of the “The Football Team” in total snaps played. He, also, leads all team linebackers in sacks, QB hits, and tackles for a loss. He is “Mr. Do It All” for Washington and should be started every week.
Other Starts: Demario Davis & Jerome Baker
Anthony Hitchens vs. Patriots: SIT
PFF has Hitchens’ ranked as the 9th worst linebacker in all of football.
I mean….do I have to say more?!
Other Sits: Nathan Gerry & Myles Jack
Good luck this week, #4EYEDfans!
