Yes, my friends, we have arrived at the first START/SIT article of the season, here at Fantasy In Frames.
I promise each week to give you my very best analysis based on empirical evidence supplied by the many research outlets available to us here at Fantasy In Frames such as:
- FantasyData.com
- PFF.com
- ProFootballReference.com
- PlayerProfiler.com
- NFL NextGenStats
However, numbers are empty without interpretation. Here my goal is to take all the complex stats these resources provide and simplify things so you’re not spinning your wheels trying to figure out what every acronym stands for. I’d rather you give you what you need to know and have you go on your way doing whatever else it is….that you….ya know…do.
So without further adieu let’s get things started.
Here are your 4-EYED Starts & Sits For Week 2!
Quarterback
Philip Rivers vs. Vikings: START
Going up against a Vikings team that ranks 32nd in pass rush and 24th in pass coverage certainly bodes well for Rivers’ performance potential on Sunday. Coming off a 16.8 fantasy point performance against the Jaguars where Rivers threw the ball 46 times (tied for 2nd among QBs in Week 1) the Colts offense, as a whole, should be in store for a huge offensive performance against this Vikings team. Rivers had a lot going for him in Week 1. When facing the 20th ranked pass-rushing until, when under pressure, Rivers was 2nd in the NFL in completion percentage. This week he faces the WORST team in the NFL when it comes to pass-rushing effectiveness. Start Rivers with confidence this week.
Cam Newton vs. Seahawks: SIT
I know Cam looked like Superman last week. THAT my friends is his problem heading into his showdown with the Seahawks on Sunday. Statistically, Newton was the RB1 on his own team rushing for 75 yards and even earned more yards after contact than all the other running backs for New England with 2.60 yards after contact per attempt. Most importantly he got you 25.7 fantasy points (FanDuel scoring) which made him the QB6 in fantasy scoring. This….all awesome stuff. Truly awesome.
However, the Seahawks rank 2nd in run defense. So….that by itself puts a damper on his “cheat code” potential. But, Jorge, what about him utilizing his passing game weapons? Can’t he make up for the lack of rushing with high passing volume?! Matt Ryan in Week 1 had to throw the ball a league-leading 54 times on Sunday to make himself a viable QB1 on the week. And that was with ELITE receiving weapons. All Newton has is Julian Edelman and James White in the receiving game. Sorry folks, that won’t be enough to help him this week.
Kirk Cousins vs. Indianapolis: START
The same argument I made for Philip Rivers earlier can easily be translated to Kirk Cousins. Both quarterbacks are facing poor pass-rushing units (Indy is ranked 24th), both were Top 10 in adjusted completion % when under pressure, are facing poor coverage units, and, most importantly, both have ELITE skill position players that can easily make these QBs have statistically strong fantasy performances in Week 2. Trust me, you’ll like that!
Running Backs
Peyton Barber vs Arizona: START
I bet you didn’t see this one coming. When in scoring position (within the 5-yard line) Barber was the RB1 in rushing attempts with 6 and scored 12.6 out of his 14.9 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) in that area. His utility % (meaning the percentage of the number of times a player attempted a running play and was TARGETED in the passing game) was 58.6% in Week 1. The next highest running back in Washington was J.D. McKissic with a utility% of 25.8%. Only Barber and McKissic played in 25 snaps or more on Sunday’s matchup versus Philly, but it was Barber who led the way in rushing attempts on the day with 17, which btw was 10th most in the NFL among running backs.
Now I know what you’re thinking, he had 17 carries and only got 29 yards rushing. That sucks. But what does NOT suck is the amount of volume he was given, and as we all know volume is king in fantasy football. This week he’ll face a Cardinals team which ranks 29th run defense yet 5th in coverage. Based on those rankings what do YOU think the point of emphasis of the Washington Football Team’s offense is going to be? You guessed it, the running game. Fire up Barber in your FLEX spot this week
Melvin Gordon vs. Pittsburgh: SIT
Did you…did you see what the 7th ranked run defense did to Saquon Barkley on Monday night?! The held him to SIX YARDS RUSHING. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, SIX! Despite the amount of rushing volume he will likely receive, especially if fellow running back Philip Lindsey is forced to miss any amount of time due to injury, Gordon is still running behind only the 25th best run-blocking unit in the NFL. And despite his impressive 5.2 yards per carry stat from Monday night all of that won’t mean a thing if he doesn’t have running lanes to run through or time to get to those running lanes. FADE Melvin this week.
Malcolm Brown vs. Philadelphia: START
On Sunday night versus Dallas, Brown was the recipient of tons of volume in the running game for Los Angeles. He led the way with 18 rushing attempts (which made him the RB9 in that metric) for 79 yards, 2 TDs, and 24.5 fantasy points (0.5 PPR). He, also, operated as the team’s goal line running back converting on his two attempts culminating in his two TDs. This week Brown faces an Eagles defensive unit which allowed Peyton Barber to become a fantasy viable option.
Let that sink in.
Without any all-pro running back waiting in the wings to unseat him THIS season (no Cam Akers doesn’t count…yet) look for Brown to provide RB1 value again this week.
David Johnson vs. Baltimore: START
Look, I get it. Baltimore is tough, dude. However, when it comes to their rush defense they aren’t THAT tough. They did just allow a combined 132 rushing yards to Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. With the Texans having the number one run-blocking unit in the NFL combined with a swiss army running back that can run and catch out of the backfield, a running back who scored 18.4 fantasy points for you in Week 1, with no running back timeshare to worry about, and you have the recipe for fantasy success against a tough matchup on Sunday. Start DJ with as much confidence as you’re willing to offer…and then some.
Receivers
T.Y. Hilton, Adam Thielen, & Marquise Brown: START
Facing defensive pass coverage units ranked 24th, 29th, and 30th, respectively, all three of these receivers are in for monster days this week!
Michael Gallup vs. Atlanta: START
Facing a Falcons team that allowed a pair of 1A/1B wide receivers from the Seahawks post over 90 yards receiving each and double-digit fantasy points it goes without saying that Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup have the potential to at least match that mark and then some. What makes Gallup the more attractive of the two is his continued large average depth of target or aDOT. We saw what DK Metcalf was able to do as a deep threat last week (17.5 fantasy points in 0.5 PPR). Just imagine what the Cowboys and Michael Gallup are willing to do to make sure Gallup gets that homerun TD catch that he was cheated out of on Sunday night. It’s going to happen folks which is why you’re starting him this week!
D.K. Metcalf vs. New England: SIT
Facing a Patriots team ranked 1st in defensive coverage and lining up against J.C. Jackson, who was actually graded by PFF as the number 1 cornerback in New England this past week, things don’t exactly seem prosperous for Metcalf. When targeted Jackson has only allowed a 22.0 NFL passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Look for this to be a run-heavy slugfest rather than a high-flying shootout on Sunday Night Football this week. All of which means fade Metcalf in Week 2.
IDP PLAY OF THE WEEK
Marcus Maye vs. San Francisco
Remember how I said volume is king in fantasy football earlier? Well, that applies to both sides of the ball. On Sunday, Maye played 87 defensive snaps, was graded by PFF as the #5 safety overall, the #1 overall run defense ranked safety, and, using FantasyPros scoring, scored a defensive back leading 31.8 fantasy points.
Wait, so how does volume play a role in all of this?! Easy, the Jets suck and that defense is going to be on the football field A LOT this week against the defending NFC Champions which like to run the ball early and often.