I couldn’t wrap up my Running Backs with Hands series without discussing some sleepers. Snag some of these players late in drafts and reap the benefits.
Devin Singletary
Over the last three seasons, the Bills have ranked 4th, 6th, and 6th in rushing attempts. Last season they ran the ball on 47.5% of their plays. The Bills did draft, Zack Moss, to fill the Frank Gore role, but Frank Gore didn’t stop Singletary from owning a 69.3% snap share last year. Singletary had a larger snap share in 2019 than the following running backs: Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, and Saquon. We continue to let ourselves believe that a rookie who will get no preseason reps will just march in and steal touches. A hamstring injury limited Singletary early in the season. Over the second half of the season, he averaged 16.4 carries per game and 4.6 yards per attempt. He garnered 30 targets over the final eight weeks as well. 21 running backs had 50 or more evaded tackles last season. Only Alvin Kamara, Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler, and Devin Singletary had under 200 rushing attempts. That’s some elite company. By the way, only one of those four backs you can draft outside of the first two rounds!
Dare Ogunbowale
Dare Ogunbowale led the Buccaneers backfield in 2019, with 35 catches. Tom Brady has always loved to check down to his running backs. James White has 95 or more targets in each of the last two seasons with Brady. White caught 70 or more passes both years. According to PFF, Dare Ogunbowale had the third-highest average depth of target among running backs at 2.6. Dare Ogunbowale taking on the James White role might be a stretch, but its certainly not out of the realm of possibilities. Dare was on the field for 367 snaps compared to the 422 Ronald Jones received. He only carried the ball 11 times for 17 yards in 2019, so expect nothing on the ground. I “Dare” you to take the dart throw on Ogunbowale in 2020!
Boston Scott
Boston Scott had no more than 8 touches in a game until Week 14. He had one catch on the season before his breakout performance in Week 14. He caught 6,7,6, and 4 balls over the last four weeks of 2019. So what changed? Over that final stretch of the season, Greg Ward was Philidalphia’s top wide receiver. Yes, you heard that right! I actually mentioned Greg Ward in 2020. Injuries opened the door wide open over the final four weeks of the season for Boston Scott to average a whopping 17.63 FPPG in 0.5 point PPR formats. Miles Sanders is the top man in the Eagle’s backfield, but Doug Pederson has long been known for his RBBC approach. Doug Pederson began his coaching tenure with the Eagles in 2016. In those four seasons, only Miles Sanders and Darren Sproles have topped the 50 catch mark. No other Eagle’s running back has had more than 28 receptions in a season during Pederson’s run as head coach. Under Doug Pederson, the Eagles backfield has averaged 78.5 catches a season. Three running backs have double-digit reception totals in each of the last three seasons. Since 2016, the eagles top running back has averaged 165.50 attempts per year, while the number two back has averaged 118.25 attempts per year. The third running back in the pecking order has averaged 70 attempts per year. You can’t convince me there won’t be a committee in Phily this year. Scott showed he is a capable running back at the back end of the 2019 season. I think Boston Scott chips into Miles Sanders’ workload a little more than we are giving him credit for.
Duke Johnson Jr.
In his first season with Houston, Duke Johnson Jr. saw 83 carries, his most since his rookie year in 2015. The 410 rushing yards he racked up in 2019 was a career-best, unfortunately, that came with his lowest catch total (44) in his young career. To top it off, one of the best receiving backs in the league will be joining forces with Duke this season. Get rid of David Johnson and Bill O’Brien and we could be looking at a Top 15 running back. Kareem Hunt and Duke Johnson are the only two running backs to evade 20 or more tackles in 2019 who had less than 100 rushing attempts. According to Fantasy Data, Duke’s 7.2 Breakaway Rate was third among running backs. Johnson still saw a 49.0% snap share even with Carlos Hyde handling the bulk of the rushing attempts in 2019. David Johnson hasn’t proved he can stay on the field. Duke could be a sneaky play at the back end of your draft.
Nyheim Hines
Nyheim Hines got himself a new quarterback heading into the 2020 season that loves to dump the ball off. Last season Phillip Rivers and the Chargers led the NFL with 148 receptions from their backfield. Over the last three seasons, the Chargers backfield has averaged 116 total catches. In 2019, the Colts backfield combined for just 70 receptions. That number was down from 98 in 2018. Hines could see a huge boost just from the arrival of Phillip Rivers, but the team also selected Jonathan Taylor in this year’s draft. In 2019, Hines was 16th among running backs with 58 targets. He was one of just 20 running backs to catch more than 40 balls. His 320 receiving yards ranked 19th among running backs. Hines added 199 yards on the ground to propel him over 500 total yards on the year. His touches dropped from 148 in 2018 to 96 in 2019, but that did not stop him from accounting for 63% of the teams running back catches in 2019. He accounted for 64% of the backfield’s total catches in 2018.
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