Running Backs with Hands
Receiving running backs are game-changers in the fantasy football world. Just like looking at slot wide receivers and their matchups which I previously wrote a series of articles on, these are player matchup options you can exploit each season. Head coaches pay attention to their opponent’s weaknesses. As a fantasy player, understanding the best way to attack defenses based on a team’s weaknesses can give you a huge advantage with any start/sit questions you may have.
To give you some perspective about how a receiving running back can impact your fantasy team it is important to understand which teams are vulnerable to the position. For example, receiving running backs basically put up Austin Ekeler-like production against the Kansas City Chiefs over the course of 2019. The Chiefs allowed 100 receptions to running backs for 951 yards last season. Another example is how no team allowed more than the 109 receptions to running backs than the Colts in 2019. Does information like this give Melvin Gordon more upside since he faces the Chiefs twice a year? Or what about his counterpart Philip Lindsey? How about David Johnson in the AFC South?
Taking things a step further four running backs garnered over 100 targets in 2019: Christian McCaffrey (135), Austin Ekeler (104), Tarik Cohen (102), and Leonard Fournette (100). Only these running backs plus Alvin Kamara had over 75 receptions last year.
Knowing the production value of these players and where they match up nicely are things you should consider when drafting running backs this season. Therefore, let me start my Running Backs with Hands series off with a bang and break down the backs with the most receptions in 2019 and discuss who has the best chances of repeating their successes in the receiving game in 2020!
Christian McCaffrey- 116 receptions
With the number one pick in drafts, the only player who will receive the workload of an RB1 and WR1 should be selected. In half-point PPR scoring, CMC outscored the highest-scoring non-quarterback by 113.1 points. He is the only player in football who has the potential to lead their team in carries and targets. CMC was third in football with 1,387 rushing yards and his 1,005 receiving yards ranked 28th in the league.
Carolina does have a new quarterback in town and I love it for McCaffrey’s value in 2020. Teddy Bridgewater won’t win you games by taking shots down the field, but he will protect the ball and keep the Carolina offense on the field. Bridgewater averaged just 7.1 yards per attempt a year ago in New Orleans. This bodes well for McCaffrey owners. Expect to see plenty of dump-offs and check downs to McCaffrey all season long.
Austin Ekeler- 92 receptions
Through the first four games of 2019, Austin Ekeler averaged 23.75 fantasy points in half-point PPR leagues. With my second pick in drafts, Ekeler is my target every time. I really think he should be going in the first round if that gives you any hint on the bargain you’d be getting drafting Ekeler in round two. Even with Melvin Gordon wearing a Chargers uniform, Ekeler still was able to finish the season as RB6. That is thanks in large part to his 92 receptions and 993 receiving yards in 2019. Phillip Rivers loved to dump the ball off, but Tyrod Taylor should do much of the same. Rivers was third in football with 20 interceptions last season. So while Tyrod Taylor may not be Phillip Rivers, Rivers wasn’t all that great in 2019 anyhow. A full season without Melvin Gordon could lead to a 1,000-yard receiving season.
Alvin Kamara- 81 receptions
Alvin Kamara was RB12 in half-point PPR leagues last year, but in 2017 and 2018 he finished as a top-four running back. He hasn’t seen over 200 rushing attempts yet in his career but has exactly 81 receptions every year since entering the league in 2017. He has averaged 100.67 targets per season in his career. Touchdowns are always hard to bank on, but AK did have 13 in 2017 and 18 touchdowns in 2018. Last year that number bottomed out at six. His RB12 finish last year should be considered his floor. I have Alvin Kamara in my top five running backs for 2020.
Tarik Cohen- 79 receptions
If you are playing in a PPR league, you are doing yourself a disservice by not drafting Tarik Cohen. “The Human Joystick” has the ability to affect the receiving game from the running back position at an elite level. In back to back seasons, Cohen has over 70 receptions and 90 targets. In half-point PPR, Cohen finished as RB13 in 2018. Last year he finished the season off as RB37, which I view as his absolute floor for 2020. His touchdown production and yardage dropped significantly in 2019. His career average of 4.0 yards per carry dropped to a career-low of 3.3 in 2019. In 2018 he produced 725 receiving yards on 71 catches. That number sank to 456 yards on eight more catches in 2019. His eight total touchdowns in 2018 dropped to just three in 2019. I’m expecting a bounce-back season from Cohen and for him to mightily outproduce his current ADP of 105.
Leonard Fournette- 76 receptions
I’m staying away from Leonard Fournette in 2020. Does anyone think he will play a full season? With that being said, Jay Gruden is taking over as offensive coordinator for the Jags this year. No player has ever rushed for over 1,100 yards under Gruden. Fournette barely eclipsed that last season with 1,152 rushing yards. Gardner Minshew averaged 7.2 pass attempts to running backs in 2019, but the addition of Chris Thompson is a major hit to his draft stock. In five games with Gruden in 2019, Thompson had 35 targets. I find it impossible for Fournette to repeat his 76 catches and 100 targets from a year ago. He has finished as a top 10 running back in two of the last three years, but in 2018 he only played in eight games. I do think Fournette will take a huge hit in the number of targets he will see this season, but I also think he gets into the endzone more than the three times he celebrated in 15 games last year. In fact, in just eight games in 2018, he had six touchdowns. In his rookie season, he had 10 touchdowns in 13 games, but like I said earlier touchdowns are never safe to bank on.