Rookie Class Fantasy Range Of Outcomes
Last time, David gave you #4EYEDfans some insight as to the potential fantasy range of outcomes for the incoming rookies prior to the NFL Draft! This week, he finishes up this two-part series by revamping his assessment of the relevant rookie class now that they have found their homes in the NFL!
(Listed by Dynasty ADP according to FantasyPros)
QB’s
Joe Burrow – Burrow comes into the NFL as arguably the most-hyped QB since Andrew Luck. He has a decent physical makeup (6’3”/221) but really, with the kind of quarterback he is, his best tool is going to be the one between his ears. He may lack prototypical arm strength, but don’t let that trick you into thinking he can’t throw the deep-ball – his accuracy on throws to the third level this past year is perhaps his biggest selling point. He also wasn’t afraid to scramble in college (115+ rushing attempts each of the last two seasons), but his yards per-carry (3.1 & 3.2) doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for optimism that he’ll be able to do much as a runner in the NFL, other than move around in & out of the pocket. That’ll put a minor cap on his fantasy upside, perhaps “limiting” him to top-10 potential as opposed to top-5. His coaching staff needs to settle in (the jury’s still out on Zac Taylor as a HC) & his line needs some work, and that isn’t going to be fixed overnight, but Burrow’s loaded with receiving weapons in Cincinnati & should be able to put up legit yardage & TD totals right away.
Ceiling ~ Aaron Rodgers
Floor ~ Jared Goff
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ QB13-QB28
Tua Tagovailoa – Tua’s a very polarizing prospect who offers a bit more dual-threat upside than Burrow (4.7 YPC as a freshman, 3.3 YPC as a sophomore), but he also comes with a lot more question marks, all health-related. After having surgeries on both ankles & then again for a serious hip injury this past year, nobody knows – at least not yet – if he’s going to see the field in 2020 or if the Dolphins are going to opt to “redshirt” him as a rookie. If he’s able to hold up physically, the sky’s the limit. He’s accurate & mobile & he’s been consistently compared to Russell Wilson & even Steve Young. Trent Dilfer has even gone as far as to compare him to Dan Marino… If he’s medically cleared to play before the start of the regular season, he’s going to start shooting up fantasy draft boards.
Ceiling – Russell Wilson
Floor – Marcus Mariota
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ QB10-QB36
Justin Herbert – Herbert is just as polarizing as Tua, if not more so. He doesn’t come with the same health-related concerns, but he does come with more on-the-field inconsistencies. There are some who had Herbert ranked ahead of Tua as a prospect & then there were some who didn’t believe he was even worth a first-round pick. Those in his camp will point to prototypical size (6’6”/236) & a surprising amount of athleticism (4.68 40/35.5” vertical/4.46 shuttle), but there are also those concerned about his disappearing at times at Oregon, his tendency to lock onto his first read, & whether or not he’ll be able make the transition to an NFL-style offense. All of the physical tools are there, it’s just hard to say whether a coaching staff will be able to bring out the best in him or if he’s going to end up as the next “raw” QB to be overdrafted in Round 1. Only time will tell…
Ceiling – Josh Allen
Floor – Brock Osweiler
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ QB18-QB36
Jordan Love – Jordan Love is another polarizing prospect at QB… sensing a theme here? Supporters will hype his 2018 season (64.0% completion/32-6 TD-INT ratio) & supreme arm talent, while detractors will question why he struggled & turned the ball over so much last year (61.9% completion/20-17 TD-INT ratio). In addition to having arm talent that’s been compared to Patrick Mahomes, Love is also fairly athletic (4.74 40/35.5” vertical). The big question mark is whether or not his decision-making is going to be solid enough, which makes his landing spot in Green Bay about as ideal a spot as he could have asked. Not only will he get to sit for at least a year, but he’ll be able to practice & attend meetings with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time.
Ceiling – Carson Wentz
Floor – DeShone Kizer
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ QB28-QB36
Jalen Hurts – Hurts has perhaps the highest fantasy upside of any QB in this class due to his dual-threat capabilities. On top of his passing contributions, Hurts rushed for 800+ yards three times in college & double-digit rushing TD’s twice, including 20 rushing TD’s (!!) this past season at Oklahoma.
His raw speed (4.59 40) is on par with some of the best scramblers in recent memory, including Josh Allen (4.75), Deshaun Watson (4.66), Cam Newton (4.59), Russell Wilson (4.55), & Colin Kaepernick (4.53). When you consider that all of the current top-6 fantasy QB’s (Mahomes, Lamar, Russ, Deshaun, Kyler, & Dak) are at least decent scramblers, it gives Hurts – who is a more-than-decent scrambler – the best chance of any QB in this class to emerge as a true difference-maker in fantasy. He’s going to have to sit for a few years behind Carson Wentz, but when Hurts’ time comes, look out!
Ceiling – Cam Newton
Floor – Tim Tebow
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ QB18-QB36
Jacob Eason – “Arm” & “Talent” are the two words you’re going to hear most associated with Eason. He’s raw at 6’6”/231, with a career 59% completion percentage, but he can cannon-arm the ball to any spot on the field. Having started at Georgia & then being forced to transfer to Washington, he’s also shown the ability to get through adversity. He might not be pro-ready, but he’s a piece of clay that the Colts can try & mold into a future starter.
Ceiling – Ben Roethlisberger
Floor – Zach Mettenberger
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ QB33-QB38
Jacob Fromm – Fromm is essentially the polar opposite of Eason. While he’s not technically small (6’2”/217), he lacks prototypical size & nobody is raving about his arm talent. On the other end of the spectrum, he can be trusted early on as a “game manager” & is more “pro-ready” due to his experience in Georgia’s offensive system. He could eventually be given a chance as a starter, but there’s also a strong chance that he’s never viewed as anything more than a career backup.
Ceiling – Kirk Cousins
Floor – Trevor Siemien
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ QB28-QB38
RB’s
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – “CEH” is a 5’7” former walk-on who was barely used early on at LSU, but was given a chance as the workhorse back this past year. He responded with 1,414 rushing yards, 6.6 YPC, 16 rushing TD’s, & 55 receptions for another 453 yards. Not bad at all. He’s no home-run hitter (4.60 40), but when you flip on the tape, you see an absolute bowling ball of a man with a very low center of gravity. Not only is he powerful in the run game, but he’s got the quicks to be a legit factor in the receiving game too. Oh, and he’s got a killer spin move too (just flip on the tape against Alabama). There’s really no reason for him to ever come off the field, whether in the red-zone or third down. CEH can do it all. His combination of versatility & a perfect landing spot in KC means that he’s going to be valued by many as a top-10 fantasy RB from Day 1.
Ceiling – Maurice Jones-Drew
Floor – Royce Freeman
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB1-RB24
Jonathan Taylor – Taylor comes into the NFL following 3 straight 2,000-yard seasons at Wisconsin paired with elite speed & agility scores at the combine (4.39 40/4.24 shuttle – numbers as good as or better than both Ezekiel Elliot & Saquon Barkley’s). At Taylor’s ceiling – he’s a potential rushing champion. At his floor – he’s a potential committee back who’ll contribute little to nothing in the passing game. He lands in a great spot to become the former & not the latter. The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the game (ranked 3rd by PFF in 2019) led by what many are already calling a “Hall-of-Fame” guard – 24-year-old Quenton Nelson. There are a few pieces in the passing game (& Michael Pittman could be a stud), but T.Y. Hilton will be 31 this year & Parris Campbell is still unproven, so the Colts still project to be a run-first team both today & tomorrow. Philip Rivers is also 38, so the Colts are going to want to protect him. Once he retires, they’re going to want to ease-in whoever his successor is, so don’t be surprised if the team gives Taylor 300+ carries immediately to begin his career & never looks back. If he can add just a little bit in the receiving game, the sky is the limit.
Ceiling: Ezekiel Elliot
Floor: Latavius Murray
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB1-RB24
D’Andre Swift – Swift is the latest Georgia runningback to come into the pros with significant hype, following in the footsteps of Todd Gurley, Sony Michel, & Nick Chubb. With the school’s track record (even though the jury’s still out on Michel), we should expect Swift to at least have a relatively high floor. He doesn’t possess the power of the other three Georgia backs, but he’s the most complete of the bunch & profiles as a true 3-down back. He’s as shifty as he is fast & after averaging over 6.0 yards per-carry in all three seasons at Georgia & having run a 4.48 40, we can expect him to continue to rip off chunk gains at the next level. Once you factor in his receiving potential, his fantasy upside is as high as – if not higher than – Jonathan Taylor’s. But due to his smaller stature, he’s also a lot more likely to be trapped in a committee & it appears he’ll start his career that way in Detroit, with Kerryon Johnson likely cutting into his rushing volume.
Ceiling: Alvin Kamara
Floor: Duke Johnson
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB5-RB28
J.K. Dobbins – Dobbins has a very similar profile to Swift. He’s short, thick, & quick, and he’s coming off a highly productive career at a highly-competitive college, becoming the only player to ever rush for 2,000 yards in a single season at Ohio State. Dobbins might not have the long-speed that Swift has, but he’s a more powerful back who’s willing to lower his shoulder & run through defenders… when he’s not juking them out of their shoes. His landing spot with the Ravens is about as good as anyone could have asked for. If Mark Ingram (1,018 yards) & Gus Edwards (711 yards) can both rush for 5.0+ YPC for the Ravens while benefitting from zone-read options, what can Dobby do? Ingram is a sturdy vet but talent wins out & it won’t likely be long before Dobbins overtakes him. That means Dobbins has a real chance to top 1,000 yards as a rookie, even in a crowded room.
Ceiling – DeAngelo Williams
Floor – Derrius Guice
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB10-RB32
Cam Akers – Akers steps into the vacancy that was created by Todd Gurley’s departure. He doesn’t possess the same raw power as Gurley, but he’s more versatile & should have a larger role in the passing game. Physically, he’s essentially a carbon copy of D’Andre Swift, except one click bigger.
Swift (5’8”/212/4.48 40/35.5” vertical/121” broad jump)
Akers (5’10”/217/4.47 40/35.5” vertical/122” broad jump)
Swift was getting more love than Akers as a prospect based on his 2019 production (1,218 yards & 6.2 YPC to Akers 1,144 & 5.0 YPC) but anyone who watched Florida State’s games will be sure to tell you just how bad Akers’ offensive line was (ranked 129th out of 130 by PFF). Now, the Rams offensive line might not be a whole lot better than FSU’s, but it’s a high-scoring offense regardless, which means Akers is going to have a chance to make a major dent in Year 1. Malcolm Brown & Darrell Henderson are still going to be involved, but if Akers can do enough in the receiving game, it shouldn’t matter too much if they steal a few of his projected carries.
Ceiling – Dalvin Cook
Floor – Duke Johnson
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB5-RB32
Ke’Shawn Vaughn – Vaughn is shooting up draft boards after landing in Tampa Bay. He’s solid & tough – albeit unspectacular – on film, but there are concerns about his overall athleticism & leg drive. There have been 79 top-35 RB’s over the past 4 years & only 6 (!!) of them jumped worse than both of Vaughn’s 32” vertical & 117” broad jump (Matt Jones, Jeremy Hill, Alex Collins, James White, James Conner, & Dalvin Cook). Maybe he’s the next Dalvin, if not, it’d appear that the other guys are his ceiling, at least from this angle. It’s only one way of looking at things, but there are certain athletic barometers where he just doesn’t really match-up to what other successful fantasy backs have looked like. Regardless of the murkiness regarding his long-term status, Peyton Barber’s departure vacates 170 touches & Coach Bruce Arians doesn’t seem too inclined to give them to Ronald Jones, so we should expect Vaughn to be force-fed the ball & see a substantial workload immediately in 2020.
Ceiling – Philip Lindsay
Floor – Paul Perkins
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB18-RB42
Zack Moss – Landing in one of the league’s run-heaviest offenses is always a good thing for tackle-breaking RB’s like Moss. There’s a cap on his 2020 upside with Devin Singletary still in town, but Moss should immediately soak up all of Frank Gore’s 179 vacated touches, and perhaps then some. The jury is still out on Moss as a talent & the two camps are pretty distinctly split on how they view him as a prospect. Supporters have fallen in love with his tackle-breaking ability & elusiveness (third-highest single-season broken tackle rate of any runningback charted by PFF) & will point to that as evidence that his skills will translate to the next level, while detractors will point to his low-level of competition, below-average speed (4.65 40), and mostly average vertical (33”) & shuttle time (4.37) as evidence that he won’t make the cut against tougher NFL competition.
Ceiling – Kareem Hunt
Floor – Benny Snell
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB12-RB36
A.J. Dillon – Dillon is an absolute behemoth of a man (6’0”/247) who produced heavily at B.C. & shocked a lot of people with his explosive combine results (4.53 40/23 bench reps/41” vertical/131” broad jump). He’s not likely to play on 3rd down at the next level, but he’s the best bet of the group (behind Jonathan Taylor) to emerge as a Derrick Henry-type early-down hammer. Landing in an offense coached by Matt Lafleur (who coached Henry as an OC in Tennessee in 2018) is only going to further fuel that narrative.
Ceiling – Derrick Henry
Floor – Ron Dayne
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB28-RB50
Antonio Gibson – Antonio Gibson is the latest Memphis scat back to come into the NFL with considerable hype, following in the footsteps of Tony Pollard & Darrell Henderson. Being a versatile RB/WR tweener & having landed on a Ron Rivera-led team, he’s already drawing comparisons as a “poor man’s” Christian McCaffery. Most of the attention that’s been given to Gibson is a result of his highly-impressive combine, but it’s risky projecting anyone with just 77 college touches to become an impact RB in the NFL – especially one who spent the majority of their snaps as a slot WR. Still, with Gibson’s physical skillset (6’0”/228/4.39 40/16 bench reps/35” vertical) & incredible efficiency (19.0 yards per-catch/11.2 yards per-carry) on his limited touches, the sky really is the limit.
Ceiling – David Johnson
Floor – Cordarelle Patterson
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB12-RB40
Anthony McFarland – I’m calling Anthony McFarland “Not Booger.” I think it’s a great nickname. If you don’t like it Anthony, well sorry! Not Booger’s college statistics are inconsistent, but the selling point for him is that he showed up in a few big games (like against Ohio State in 2018, when he ran 21 times for 298 yards & 2 TD’s). He’s undersized (5’8”/208) & there are legit concerns about his lower-body explosiveness (out of the 79 top-35 fantasy RB’s from the past 4 years, only 3 competed in a Combine/Pro Day & had both worse than Not Booger’s 29.5″ vert & 116″ broad). McFarland does have that extra gear (4.44 40) to use if he’s able to find space, but he’s never likely to be more than a complementary back. His greatest value is landing in a Pittsburgh backfield behind James Conner, who’s struggled to stay on the field.
Ceiling – Ahmad Bradshaw
Floor – Jacquizz Rodgers
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB33-RB60
Darrynton Evans – Evans is another scatback (5’10”/203) with considerable burst. Coming from a small school (Appalachian State), he’s got a lot to prove. He aced his first test at the combine (4.41 40/20 bench reps/37” vertical), proving he’s got the juice to be an effective committee back at the next level. He does unfortunately go down on first contact often & doesn’t have a whole lot of power to his game, but that should actually pair perfectly in Tennessee with a power-back like Derrick Henry. Don’t expect Evans to see much rushing volume, but he could slide right into Dion Lewis’ vacated role as the 3rd down guy.
Ceiling – Matt Breida
Floor – Daniel Lasco
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB28-RB60
Joshua Kelley – Kelley was a productive runner at UCLA & showed a decent amount of speed & quickness (4.49 40/4.28 shuttle) at the combine. He lands in an LA offense that is in need of a replacement for Melvin Gordon. Justin Jackson should start the season as the No. 2 behind Austin Ekeler, but Jackson’s more of a scatback than an inside-the-tackles runner, so there’s a chance that Kelley could take over as the short-yardage & goal-line back immediately as a rookie, even if he isn’t able to surpass Jackson for the No. 2 role.
Ceiling – Jonathan Stewart
Floor – Benny Snell
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB36-RB60
Eno Benjamin – Eno’s quicker (4.25 shuttle) than he is fast (4.57 40). He’s undersized but runs with a lot of heart, fighting through tackles & making defenders miss. He’s got a lot of moves as a runner, but sometimes he can get a little too fancy. He’s got to beat out Chase Edmonds for the back-up job in Arizona, but he carries significant upside as a dual-threat playmaker in an offense that has generated a lot of RB production recently.
Ceiling – Gio Bernard
Floor – Boston Scott
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB36-RB60
Lamical Perine – Lamical – the cousin of former Redskins RB Samaje – is the latest Perine to make his way onto the big stage. He’s one of the most versatile backs in the class even though he fails to really stand out in any particular category. He doesn’t possess home-run speed, but he’s a grinder between the tackles, can make defenders miss in space, & is also a weapon in the receiving game, as well as a solid pass blocker. The Jets signing Frank Gore for 2020 definitely puts a major dent into Perine’s redraft value, but with Le’Veon Bell possibly becoming a cap casualty as soon as next year, Perine’s still got a chance to eventually become the guy in NY.
Ceiling – Mark Ingram
Floor – Bryce Brown
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB32-RB60
DeeJay Dallas – Dallas is a converted WR who split time with other backs while at “The U.” He’s small, compact, & has great contact-balance. He doesn’t go down easily & he’s always fighting for extra yardage. Landing in Seattle is a perfect fit for him. The Seahawks have been looking for a 3rd down back (they tried with Prosise & McKissic) & have been getting by with Chris Carson handling the role. With Carson & Rashaad Penny’s injury troubles – not to mention Carson’s fumbling issues – don’t be surprised if Dallas takes over as the 3rd down back quickly & doesn’t ever give the role up.
Ceiling – Ray Rice
Floor – Brandon Bolden
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB16-RB60
Lynn Bowden – Bowden was a college-receiver-turned-quarterback who the Raiders now plan to shift to RB, which inherently makes him quite a polarizing prospect. He’s going to draw a lot of comparisons to Randall Cobb, who was also used all over the field during his time at Kentucky. Still, most college quarterbacks aren’t able to successfully make that shift to WR/RB as a pro, but supporters will point to Bowden having started as a WR at Kentucky & only having been shifted to QB out of necessity as justification that he’ll be different. Bowden could’ve silenced some doubters by posting decent speed scores at the combine, but he didn’t participate, and that won’t do him any favors in the minds of doubters. His greatest asset is his versatility & it won’t be surprising to see the Raiders put together a wildcat-type package for him immediately from the get-go.
Ceiling – Antwaan Randle-El
Floor – Greg Ward
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ RB28-RB60
WR’s
CeeDee Lamb – The Lamb/Jeudy debate of 2020 reminds us a lot of the Julio/A.J. Green debate of 2011. If someone’s got to be “Julio” here, I’m betting on the other dude we know on a first-name basis. “CeeDee” is a true Alpha who can do everything. He’s got prototypical size (6’2”/200), sticky hands, & he’s lightning-quick. He can separate, toe-tap, high-point jump-balls, & he’s a beast after the catch. I’m not even going to give him a ceiling comp because he has a chance to be the first of his kind. There are definitely some concerns about his ability to make an instant-impact in a Dallas offense that also has Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, & Ezekiel Elliot, but those concerns are probably overblown. Dak Prescott passed for over 4,900 yards last year & now Jason Witten & Randall Cobb are gone. You could project 1,100 yards apiece for Cooper, Lamb, & Gallup, and you’d still have over 1,600 passing yards left to split up between Zeke, Blake Jarwin, Tony Pollard, & whoever else manages to find their way onto the field for a few snaps per-game. Don’t be surprised if CeeDee emerges as a viable weekly fantasy starter, even as a rookie.
Ceiling – CeeDee Lamb
Floor – Sammy Watkins
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR8-WR36
Jerry Jeudy – Jeudy is another Alpha at the position who can do just about anything you ask. His first cut is as sharp as anyone’s, he can play at all three levels, he’s not afraid to get dirty after the catch, & he almost always makes the first guy miss. He’s not quite the same jump-ball threat that Lamb is, but he’s been lauded as one of the best route-runners in recent memory coming out of college. Like Lamb, it might have been better if he’d landed somewhere where he could have been the clear top-option, but don’t be surprised when his talent wins out.
Ceiling – Odell Beckham
Floor – Robert Woods
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR16-WR36
Justin Jefferson – Jefferson’s the 3rd wideout off the board according to dynasty ADP. He’s another guy who checks all of the boxes & can do essentially anything you ask him to do. He had a fantastic year this past year (111/1540/18), but a lot of people attributed it to playing alongside Joe Burrow & didn’t expect Jefferson to particularly stand out at the combine. Boy, were they wrong – especially about that second part. Jefferson continued to put on a show at the combine just like he had all season long, recording a 4.43 40, 37.5” vertical, & 126” broad jump – all numbers better than CeeDee & Jeudy. He immediately slides in as the Vikings WR2 & it should only take a year or two before he completely overtakes the aging Adam Theilen as Kirk Cousins’ top target.
Ceiling – Stefon Diggs
Floor – Sterling Shepard
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR16-WR36
Jalen Reagor – Reagor had a pretty impressive combine for someone who was expected to run even faster. If a 4.47 40, 17 bench reps, 42” (!) vertical, 138” broad jump (!!), & 4.46 20-yard shuttle (his one average result) constitute a “disappointing” combine, then I’d hate to catch Reagor on a good day. He was hampered by poor quarterback play at TCU, but he’s got as much pure athletic ability as anyone in this class (minus maybe Henry Ruggs). He’s going to add an explosive element that the Eagles have been lacking & he could end up receiving touches in all three aspects of the game (run, pass, & return).
Ceiling – Tyreek Hill
Floor – Curtis Samuel
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR8-WR36
Henry Ruggs – Ruggs brings the X-Factor that every NFL team is looking for – pure unadulterated SPEED. We’ve seen players built on speed fail before (it’s hard not to mention Darrius Heyward-Bey when having this conversation) but it’s also hard not to become enamored with these types of speed-freaks in a league that continues to reduce contact. Everybody sees Tyreek Hill in KC & wants one of their own. Ruggs can be a weapon on slants & screens, but you’re probably also going to see him run a lot of deep-routes throughout his career simply as a decoy. The fantasy impact might not quite equal the NFL impact & could make Ruggs a bit more boom-or-bust as a fantasy asset.
Ceiling – Brandin Cooks
Floor – John Ross
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR18-WR48
Denzel Mims – Mims went from an after-thought in this year’s class to a highly regarded prospect after blowing up the combine. He had a decent career at Baylor (two 1,000-yard seasons & 8+ TD’s in three straight seasons) & has a solid pair of mitts, but it’s the raw athletic numbers (4.38 40/16 bench reps/38.5” vertical/131” broad jump) that stand out. His quickness (4.43 shuttle) leaves a bit to be desired & he’s probably going to have to rely on being a jump-ball artist at the next level, but the barren depth chart in NY gives him a legit chance to become Sam Darnold’s top target from Day 1.
Ceiling – Dez Bryant
Floor – Kevin White
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR24-WR48
Tee Higgins – Higgins doesn’t possess the raw athleticism or versatility of some of the other WR’s in this class (he didn’t run at the Combine & his Pro Day results left a bit to be desired), but at 6’4”/216 pounds, he towers above most defensive backs. His biggest advantage is his size & boy does he know how to use it. Just throw it up & Higgins will go up and get it. With A.J. Green’s inability to stay on the field the past few years, we could be looking at a situation where Higgins becomes Joe Burrow’s favorite target immediately as a rookie.
Ceiling – DeAndre Hopkins
Floor – Mike Williams
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR24-WR48
Michael Pittman Jr. – Michael Pittman Jr. would probably be a first-round pick if he were in just about any other draft class. He checks all of the boxes. NFL bloodline? His father played 11 years in the NFL. Sure hands? He’s dropped only five passes on 176 catchable targets in his career. He can high-point the ball as well as anyone in this class & he’s a load (6’4”/223) after the catch who’s always fighting for extra yardage. Not to mention, he showed up at the combine & posted surprising scores in just about every drill. His 40-yard dash (4.53) was nearly as fast as CeeDee Lamb’s (4.50) & his 20-yard shuttle time (4.14) was the second-fastest time among all WR’s & one of just two WR’s under 4.20. With a wide-open depth chart behind T.Y. Hilton, Pittman could come out of the gate with a bang!
Ceiling – Mike Evans
Floor – Corey Davis
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR16-WR48
Laviska Shenault Jr. – “Viska” – like Jalen Reagor – had a huge 2018 season only to take a statistical step backwards in 2019 (86/1011/6 – 56/764/4). He’s an absolute tank (6’1”/227) who can play in all three facets of the game (run, pass, return). He’s had an extensive injury history & we’ve seen “position-less” players struggle to make the transition to the NFL before, which means there’s definitely a risk factor here. But, if Shenault can stay healthy, he’s got the physical tools to be an explosive chess-piece for the Jaguars for years to come.
Ceiling – Sammy Watkins
Floor – Cordarelle Patterson
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR28-WR60
Brandon Aiyuk – A JUCO transfer who really took off for ASU this past year after the departure of N’Keal Harry, Aiyuk fits the mold of a true No. 1 WR. He’s big (6’0”/205), fast (4.50 40), can win jump-ball contests (40” vertical), & is a terror after the catch (10.5 yards AFTER the catch in 2019), not to mention, he’s a game-changer in the return game (31.9 yards per kickoff return & 16.1 yards on punt returns). San Fran already had one YAC BEAST in Deebo Samuel & now they’ve added another.
Ceiling – Chris Godwin
Floor – Quincy Enunwa
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR24-WR48
Bryan Edwards – People who put a lot of stock into a college players’ breakout age have to be particularly enamored with Edwards having broken out in the SEC at the ripe ol’ age of 17. He might be “just” a jump-baller, but man can this dude jump-ball. He’s got a penchant for “wow” plays & his highlight tape is as fun to watch as anyone’s. Flip on the film & you’ll see a guy who consistently pulls down one-handers & jump-balls in double coverage. He doesn’t look particularly fast or lightning-quick & his lack of combine participation did nothing to quell those worries, but he’s a fighter after the catch & South Carolina wasn’t afraid to get him involved on reverses & in the return game. Bottom line – Edwards is a man’s man.
Ceiling – Dez Bryant
Floor – Michael Floyd
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR18-WR60
K.J. Hamler – Hamler is the ideal slot receiver in today’s NFL. He’s drawn a lot of comparisons to Mecole Hardman – small (5’9”/178), but lighting fast & able to create a ton of separation. Hamler didn’t run at the combine & his pro day was canceled due to the coronavirus, but fortunately, we have GPS tracking technology to give us an idea of his true speed. His fastest play in the past two years at Penn State was tracked at 21.76 MPH & would have ranked tied for the 8th-fastest play in the NFL last year, according to Next Gen Stats. So ya, he’s fast fast. Unfortunately, he lands in an extremely crowded Denver offense. That’s good news for Drew Lock, not so much for all of the hungry mouths looking to be fed. Hamler’s probably an injury to a teammate away from seeing enough volume to be fantasy-viable as a rookie, but we should expect a player as talented as him to make a handful of splash-plays & settle in as a boom-or-bust streamer in 2020, with upside for more.
Ceiling – Tyreek Hill
Floor – Tavon Austin
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR28-WR60
Chase Claypool – Even though Chase Claypool spoiled our dreams by not landing somewhere he’d be made TE-eligible, at least he landed in a place with a WR track record as good as Pittsburgh’s. At 6’4”/238 with 4.42 speed & a 40.5” vertical, Claypool naturally draws comparisons to Calvin Johnson (6’5”/237/4.35 40). Is Chase the next Calvin? That would almost certifiably be a hard “NO,” but the sky really is the limit for him athletically, so we shouldn’t put a cap on his upside. He could be just another size/speed freak who doesn’t pan out, or he could be this year’s D.K. Metcalf – a rare athlete who is overlooked due to a lack of college production & ends up being a steal in Round 2.
Ceiling – D.K. Metcalf
Floor – Jonathan Baldwin
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR24-WR60
Devin Duvernay – Duvernay profiles similarly to K.J. Hamler as a small but lightning fast (4.39 40/4.20 shuttle) slot WR. The only real difference is that he’s a bit thicker than Hamler (5’10”/200) & should be used more in the running game on handoffs & reverses, similarly to the way the 49ers use Deebo Samuel. Duvernay’s size is likely going to prevent him from playing a role on the outside or in the red-zone, but he could easily become one of the game’s better slot “gadgets” in time.
Ceiling – Golden Tate
Floor – Tavon Austin
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR32-WR60
Van Jefferson – I had to go back and take another look at Jefferson’s tape after he was taken in the 2nd round by the Rams. To say I slandered him in our pre-draft analysis piece would be putting it nicely. I believe I said the only thing I liked about Van was the fact that he was Shawn Jefferson’s son… Ouch. In all fairness to me, it was tough to get excited about Van after his lack of college production (never exceed 49 receptions, 657 yards, or 6 TD’s) & his lack of combine participation, but if the Rams liked his route-running & craftiness enough to take him in the 2nd round, I have to assume they know what kind of player they’re dealing with better than I do. We’ve seen this Rams offense support 3 fantasy WR’s before, so even if Van isn’t anything spectacular, he’s still got a great chance at immediate fantasy relevance in LA.
Ceiling – Reggie Wayne
Floor – Jordan Matthews
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR24-WR44
Tyler Johnson – Johnson is caught between elite college production & a lack of raw physical skills. He chose not to compete at the combine in hopes that teams would rely strictly on his tape when assessing him, which was probably a good idea. He’s a “bully” who makes his money in contested-catch situations & it’s clear when you watch the film that he wants the ball as bad as any WR out there & he’s willing to fight for it. He’s never going to be a sexy option, but he should make for a solid role-player who has a chance to have a long NFL career. Landing on a Tampa team that lacks an established 3rd WR & just signed the greatest QB of all-time is about as perfect a chance at relevance as Johnson could have hoped for.
Ceiling – Anquan Boldin
Floor – Jason Avant
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR28-WR60
Antonio Gandy-Golden – Gandy-Golden is a big-bodied small-school receiver who feasted on lesser competition (71/1037/10 & 79/1396/10 in his two seasons at Liberty). The problem is that his speed & agility scores at the combine left A LOT to be desired (4.60 40/4.55 shuttle). As a big-man without any speed or quickness, he’s not likely to be more than a red-zone & jump-ball threat at the next level & carries a high “bust” potential.
Ceiling – Alshon Jeffery
Floor – Limas Sweed
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR36-WR64
Donovan Peoples-Jones – “DPJ” is as physically gifted as they come, but he did a whole lot of nothing in college. He was highly recruited, but his best statistical season at Michigan was his sophomore year, where he finished with a 47/612/8 line. He came out for the draft as a junior after finishing with just a 34/438/6 line. Supporters will point to poor quarterback play as an excuse for his lack of production & will point to his ELITE combine scores (4.48 40/44.5” vertical/139” broad jump) as evidence that his production in the NFL could be a lot better than in college. He has only Rashard Higgins to beat out for Cleveland’s No. 3 WR gig.
Ceiling – Kenny Golladay
Floor – Josh Doctson
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR36-WR64
Quintez Cephus – Cephus ran slooooowwwww at the combine (4.73) but he also showed up in the jumping drills (38.5” vertical/124” broad) & had the best contested catch rate in college football last year. He might only be good at that one thing, but he seemed to be reaaaaally good at it. If Kenny G or Marvin Jones go down, Cephus could step up on the outside in an offense where Matt Stafford isn’t afraid to throw up 50/50 balls.
Ceiling – Dez Bryant
Floor – Juron Criner
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR36-WR64
John Hightower – At 6’1”/189 with a 4.43 40, 38.5” vertical, & 4.21 shuttle, Hightower’s got all of the physical measurables needed to make an impact at the next level. His game is far from complete, but the Eagles’ valued his speed so much that they “doubled-up” after already spending their first-rounder on Jalen Reagor. Hightower could see some action in 4-WR sets as a rookie, but with the Eagles relying heavily on 2-TE sets, expect them to “redshirt” Hightower in 2020 with Alshon Jeffery & Desean Jackson still in town.
Ceiling – John Brown
Floor – Devin Smith
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR40-WR64
K.J. Hill – K.J. Hill plays a lot like another undersized & “slow” slot WR – Jarvis Landry. Like Landry, Hill’s 40 time (4.60) leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s got sticky hands, makes the acrobatic look routine, is a willing blocker, and is an absolute DOG after the catch. He received a lot of praise at the Senior Bowl for his understanding of the game & was described by many as one of the most “pro-ready” receivers in this class. He’s tough as nails & should stick in the NFL for a long time. Look for him to immediately slide in as LA’s starting slot receiver.
Ceiling – Jarvis Landry
Floor – Mo Sanu
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR28-WR60
Darnell Mooney – Darnell Mooney is a name to keep an eye on. He’s tiny (5’10”/176), from a small college (Tulane), & wasn’t drafted until the end of the 5th round. But he’s also loaded with speed & athleticism (4.38 40/37” vertical/124” broad) & lands on a wide-open Chicago Bears’ depth chart. If he’s able to grab ahold of the gig that Taylor Gabriel left vacated, he’s got the potential to contribute from Day 1.
Ceiling – Taylor Gabriel
Floor – Jacoby Ford
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR40-WR64
James Proche – Proche is a bit undersized (5’11/200) & scouts have noted that his route-running could use some refinement, but he has perhaps the best set of hands in this entire class – it’s very easy to fall in love with his game tape. He’s not going to wow you with speed, but he’s the type of receiver who will gain his quarterback’s trust quickly by competing for jump-balls, hauling in off-target throws, & rarely dropping passes.
Ceiling – Jarvis Landry
Floor – Stedman Bailey
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR40-WR64
Quez Watkins – Watkins is a small-school receiver (Southern Miss) with speed to burn (4.35 40/4.36 shuttle). He’s going to be buried on the Eagles’ depth chart behind Alshon, D-Jax, Reagor, Hightower, & the two TE’s, but he could emerge as a deep-threat for the team at some point over the next few years.
Ceiling – John Ross
Floor – Jacoby Ford
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ WR48-WR64
TE’s
Cole Kmet – Kmet is the headliner in an otherwise underwhelming TE class. He’s got decent speed (4.70 40), good ups (37” vertical) & a ton of size to play with (6’6”/262). He’s not someone many linebackers or safeties are going to be excited about trying to tackle. He projects as a “Power-Forward” type TE who can take a big hit over the middle, be used as a vertical weapon, & play a major role in the red-zone.
Ceiling – Zach Ertz
Floor – Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ TE8-TE28
Adam Trautman – Like Van Jefferson, I didn’t know a whole lot about Trautman when writing our original rookie analysis piece, so I obviously took it as an opportunity to slander him, because that’s best practice, right? That obviously means Trautman will become an All-Pro for the offensive juggernaut that is the Saints while making me look like a complete & total baboon. But in all seriousness, most of us would admit that we weren’t particularly thrilled about Trautman before he landed with the Saints. His speed (4.80) doesn’t really make the cut-off for previously successful fantasy TE’s, but he did show with his vertical (34.5”) & shuttle (4.27) that despite his lack of long-speed, he does possess a modicum of quickness & burst.
Ceiling – Austin Hooper
Floor – Adam Shaheen
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ TE8-TE34
Devin Asiasi – Asiasi lands in the offense that most considered to be the best landing spot for TE’s coming out of this year’s draft – the New England Patriots. He’s an early-declare who broke out as a junior (44/641/4) after having only 8 receptions total through his first two years at UCLA. He didn’t do a whole lot to get anyone excited at the combine (4.73 40/30.5” vertical/115” broad), but we should at least be somewhat interested due to his landing spot & immediate path to playing time.
Ceiling – Jordan Reed
Floor – Mychal Rivera
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ TE18-TE40
Albert Okwuegbunam – Albert “O” – as most announcers are going to opt to call him – participated in just one combine drill. He ripped of a 4.49 40 & at that point, why not quit while you’re ahead? His game tape & usage is inconsistent (only 26/306/6 this past year), but he’s got the raw speed to really make a difference as a deep-route runner at the next level.
Ceiling – Coby Fleener
Floor – Ladarius Green
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ TE20-TE40
Brycen Hopkins – Hopkins posted a very respectable 40 (4.66) & shuttle time (4.28) after finishing out his career at Purdue on a high-note (61/830/7). He’s taller & a bit thinner (6’4”/245), so we can expect him to be used more as a big-slot than as a blocker. He’s going to be stuck behind Tyler Higbee & Gerald Everett as a rookie, but with Everett becoming a free agent at the end of the year, he’ll likely settle in as the Rams TE2 in 2021.
Ceiling – Dennis Pitta
Floor – Jace Amaro
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ TE24-TE40
Harrison Bryant – Harrison Bryant – not to be confused with Hunter – is a former offensive lineman who’s a more willing blocker than his 6’5”/243-pound frame would have you expect. He’s definitely got the speed (4.73) & size (6’5”/243) to make a splash in fantasyland, but he’s probably going to be use more so as a blocker as long as Austin Hooper remains in Cleveland. Still, it’s great news for Bryant that he lands with a coach (Kevin Stefanski) who was able to successfully utilize 2 TE’s (Kyle Rudolph & Irv Smith Jr.) while with the Vikings in 2019.
Ceiling – Greg Olsen
Floor – Zach Miller
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ TE24-TE40
Hunter Bryant – Many thought that Hunter Bryant possessed the highest upside of any TE in this class as the top-ranked “Move-TE,” so it was a bit of a surprise to see him go completely undrafted. Rumor has it that concerns about his knee longevity had a lot to do with his fall. His combine numbers (4.74 40/32.5” vertical/4.46 shuttle) don’t exactly wow you, but he’s shown on tape that he has the ability to make plays in traffic & after the catch.
Ceiling – Delanie Walker
Floor – Mycole Pruitt
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ TE24-TE40
Thaddeus Moss – Moss is an intriguing prospect, but it’s hard to get too excited about Thad Moss’s fantasy potential. Yes, he’s Randy Moss’s son, but he wasn’t expected to run very fast at his Pro Day (he skipped the combine workouts) & he’s just as useful as a blocker as he is a receiver. Even if he ends up being a solid pro, he’s probably going to make bigger contributions to the Skins than he is to teams in fantasyland. At least in Washington, he’s got a chance to soak up targets with very few additional playmakers on the offensive side of the ball.
Ceiling – Eric Ebron
Floor – Dwayne Allen
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ TE12-TE40
Dalton Keene – Keene is the “other” TE the Patriots drafted this year, but there’s really no reason to say he doesn’t have just as good a chance at breaking out for the Pats as Devin Asiasi does. He performed better than Asiasi in every combine drill (Asiasi participated in 4 drills & Keene participated in 6). Asiasi is the more traditional receiving-TE, where Keene is more of a FB/TE-hybrid, but if Asiasi fails to separate himself as a receiver, don’t be surprised if the Patriots justify keeping Keene & his multi-faceted skill-set on the field instead.
Ceiling – George Kittle
Floor – Charles Clay
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ TE12-TE40
Josiah Deguara – Like Keene in NE, the plan in GB is probably going to be to use Deguara as more of an “H-Back” who’s asked to block as much as he’s asked to run routes. Word on the street is that GB plans to give Deguara the role that Kyle Jusczyzk occupies with the 49ers. Deguara could have his moments here & there, but if he’s stuck in that kind of role, it’s going to be hard for him to ever really break out.
Ceiling – Kyle Jusczyzk
Floor – Lance Kendricks
ReDraft Range of Outcomes ~ TE26-TE40