The 4-EYED Market Watch took a Thanksgiving break last week, but we’re back with some tasty leftovers. I would be remiss if I did not share a bit of personal gratitude with you (the faithful readers of my work) and the phenomenal team behind this site. I am eternally grateful to all who support me and appreciate the platform I’ve been given to write about something in which I am so passionate. Thank you all.
I’d also like to take this opportunity to thank the mystery of life for bestowing a special gift upon me and my wife – we are expecting our first child in June of 2021, and I could not be more ecstatic to become a #girldad in six months. Blessings abound in this season of giving. I hope you join me in always continuing to appreciate all we have. Hard work pays off in so many ways.
With that, I’ll step off the soapbox and talk some dynasty! We’re at that critical juncture of the season; you’re either playing what amounts to a play-in game this week, battling for a bye week slot, preparing for the playoffs, or simply setting your lineup and hoping you lose (I see you, tankers). It all comes down to this, so capitalize on the latest market trends and get those rosters ready to take this thing down.
Bottom line — if you’re looking for dynasty insights supported by analytics, you’ve come to the right place.
Welcome to the 4-EYED Market Watch; let’s dive in.
Risers
1. Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
The first-year back out of Memphis might be the most talked-about RB in dynasty after his Thanksgiving-day blow-up in Dallas. Widely considered an upside player with a very low floor given his limited experience in an explosive system (the same one that produced Darrell Henderson, who was almost equally difficult to evaluate), he was often taken in the latter half of the second round or beginning of the third in most 2020 rookie drafts. The size was really never in question; at 6’2”, 220, he’s not far off Todd Gurley’s build. Yet running a 4.39-40, he’s faster than Gurley (4.50) was coming out of Georgia1.
Gibson’s snap rate has fluctuated pretty wildly, correlating fairly closely with the game script encountered. While leading, Gibson plays plenty of snaps; in losses, JD McKissick tends to take the lead. Because of McKissick’s presence, few players have splits as stark as his:
• In wins: four games, 65 carries for 373 yards (93.3/game), five touchdowns, eight receptions on 12 targets for 39 yards (9.8/game), zero fumbles/lost – 18.8 half-PPR FP/g.
• In losses: seven games, 74 carries for 272 yards (38.9/game), six touchdowns, 24 receptions on 27 targets, two fumbles/lost – 12.9 half-PPR FP/g.
It’s not as though you can’t play him in projected losses. His receiving upside is impressive with an 87th percentile college target share (12.7%)1, not inconsistent with his 10.5% target share in the NFL. And it is absolutely the case that he has untapped potential both as a runner and as a receiver. It’s just that he has to contend with JDM for aerial touches for now, and it obviously lowers his ceiling when he can’t dominate carries. You may want to consider him a floor play when you think they lose and a ceiling play when they’re expected to win. And interestingly enough, Alex Smith might have actually been the best thing for Gibson’s value as the game manager tends to keep things closer than Haskins typically could.
And yet, his moderate aggregate snap share (28th at 49.1%), red zone touches (13th at 29 or 2.6/game), 1.68 yards per route run, and 82.1% catch rate all suggest ample room for growth. He’s supremely efficient too (i.e., not David Montgomery) and sits at 6th in the NFL in breakaway runs (7), 17th in breakaway run rate (5.0%), 10th in evaded tackles (48 or 4.4/game), and 15th in juke rate (28.1%)1.
JDM is signed through 2021 although the team has a reasonable potential out this offseason)2. I would not assume Washington does not bring in another back to complement Gibson – perhaps a Malcolm Brown type. Or perhaps Bryce Love becomes healthy one day, or they retain Peyton Barber. Either way, Gibson has proven he does not need 75%+ of snaps to go off and you shouldn’t let anyone convince you he’s not as valuable as he is because he’s “NoT a WoRkHoRsE.”
How to Play the Market: I’m still not certain I would trade away Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, or CEH straight-up for Gibson though I’m sure some would. That said, he’s the RB5 of this class at worst and you’d be wise to believe in the talent and the moderately strong draft capital sooner rather than later. If anyone is waffling, help make their decision for them. No, he’s not the next Christian McCaffrey, but still, buy Gibson everywhere you can (as long as the ask isn’t extortion, which it probably is coming off that game). My best is advice is to let Gibson slow down or let player values naturally deflate during draft season when everyone wants picks and shiny new rookies.
2. Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF)
His status as a riser is obviously buoyed by John Brown’s IR stint, and it is true that Cole Beasley is the bigger beneficiary. However, Davis is an exciting rookie who frankly received less hype than he deserved this offseason. A 4th round pick out of UCF, Davis checks a lot of analytics boxes: 34.4% college dominator (65th percentile), 17.2 college yards per reception (81st), 29.1% college target share (81st), and a 19.4 breakout age (80th)1. He was also an early-declare as a junior, posting over 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns3 with future NFL QB Dillon Gabriel throwing him the ball. His biggest deterrent had been playing time – Brown’s minimum three-game absence will help with that.
Despite Beasley’s existence within this offense, Gabriel is also seeing slot snaps at a 40.4% rate (good for 30th in the NFL). Despite that, his average target distance sits at an impressive 14.1 (21st) which indicates he’s not solely a low-aDOT player who will need ample targets to be valuable. Even with limited playing time (81st in the NFL at 66.7% snap share), he’s already got seven red-zone targets catching five of them – 44th in the NFL1.
Now, Davis does come with some red flags. Despite seeing the second-most target separation in the NFL, he does have a measly 1.28 yards per route run (89th) and a 78.6% true catch rate (92nd). He’s also got a 7.0 target quality rating per PlayerProfiler, good for 10th in the NFL so it’s not as though Davis is victim to Josh Allen’s sometimes errant passing. Yes, his solid 22.9% DVOA and 101 DYAR4 do point to production, but the sample is small. He’s got to learn to do more with his opportunities and prove to this coaching staff that he deserves more if he’s going to break out as the next fantasy WR star.
How to Play the Market: Given his raw talent and lack of NFL experience, I do think he’ll become a solid dynasty asset in time. Do I think he’ll ever be that elite player you can count on for consistent WR1-WR2 scores? No, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have value. However, you may want to capitalize on trends and biases. If Davis does overperform his audition, feel free to flip him to someone if they’re willing to throw you an early-to-mid 2nd (or better). If nobody’s paying that price, I’d gladly hold and give him time to develop. Just keep in mind that he’ll probably hit his hype ceiling before he hits his production ceiling.
Honorable Mention: Keke Coutee (WR – HOU), Isaiah Coulter (WR – HOU)
Fallers
1. Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)
Quite frankly I wanted to make this “the entire Eagles offense,” but Sanders had the highest value to begin with and his touches are the ones being most-directly impacted right now.
Is there anything wrong with Sanders? Should we be concerned? Long-term, probably not. There’s a bit of a rising concern regarding his seemingly constant struggles with soft-tissue injury, but as some of the more notable contributors to the medical side of fantasy have pointed out, there really is no such thing as “injury prone.” Even DeVante Parker, he of the endlessly-nagging injury throughout the first handful of years of his career, looks like he’s finally figured out how to keep his body healthy (and/or play through the minor pains). In short, I wouldn’t devalue Miles solely on the basis of injury consideration.
Obviously, the biggest factor here is the Eagles offense. It flat-out stinks. The offense line is completely banged up though somehow still contributing 4.24 adjusted line yards (17th in the NFL). Even still, the RB are contributing 5.03 yards behind only Cleveland which is a bit surprising considering just how elite the Chubb-Hunt tandem is. The Philly run game also has a 75% power success rate (percentage of runs on third or fourth down with two yards or less to go which result in a first down or touchdown), good for 7th in the NFL, and they’re first in open field yards (1.28) and fourth in second-level yards (1.37)4. Without providing the full definition, these are both indicators of how well backs are creating yardage independent of how the offensive line performs at the line of scrimmage.
So then what’s the deal? Simply put, the passing game is broken. Philly’s line is last in adjusted sack rate (9.3%) and last in sacks allowed at 46 (a full eight more than the next highest)4. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Wentz is holding on to the ball far too long; he’s T-7th in time to throw at 2.9 seconds5. Without Zach Ertz or Alshon Jeffery healthy, it seems like he doesn’t know where to put the ball. Maybe he doesn’t trust Jalen Reagor yet (he’d been injured most of the season so there may be a lack of chemistry here) and defenses can key in on Dallas Goedert without Ertz active. Losing games won’t help the game script and Boston Scott is more than capable of creating in the open field on passing downs (which have been aplenty for most of the season). Add in Jordan Howard who was elevated from the practice squad today, and that’s a recipe for a low-floor, low-ceiling rest-of-season play.
This is a long way of saying I’m not at all worried about Miles Sanders. Wentz is a former MVP candidate. The line is in rough shape, but it likely won’t stay that way. Sanders himself is talented and even if he’s not helping fantasy teams this season, that doesn’t mean he won’t in 2021. Like Zeke, this may just be someone you write off now and rake in the dividends later.
How to Play the Market: Sanders is a prime buy-low candidate. Recency bias coupled with his injury history may have managers scrambling to sell. You might also be able to convince a contender that Kenyan Drake gives them a much better shot at a championship than Sanders does and adding a 2020 draft pick helps replace the lost value. I would be pretty stoked if I could flip Drake and a late 1 (or less) for Sanders whether I was competing or not. If you’re rebuilding or retooling, hold tight.
2. Josh Jacobs (RB – LVR)
This is not an overreaction to the Falcons game or to his recent injury. No; Jacobs has probably been a bit overrated for well more than a few weeks. People were convinced he was capable of catching more passes (he probably is) and figured his role would be secure even in rough game script situations. And with more targets, receptions, and receiving yards per game this season vs. his rookie year, that’s held somewhat true. But the reality is whether he’s capable of being a threat in the pass game or not, it’s become more and more clear that he’s just not going to be utilized enough in that capacity to be a fantasy game-changer.
Jacobs isn’t doing his best Nick Chubb impression either (i.e. dominating on the ground but falling short through the air). Most would be shocked to find out he’s actually contributing negative DYAR and is sitting 26th in the NFL with -18 on the year. That’s Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, and Devin Singletary territory. He’s no better on a per-down basis – he’s at -10.5% DVOA, again 26th among qualifiers4. The offensive line isn’t to blame, either. Las Vegas is 10th in adjusted line yards with 4.45. The run-blocking has been up to snuff, but the individual production hasn’t.
Don’t get me wrong, Jacobs is producing fantasy points. He’s RB6 on the season in half-PPR settings. But if you look closer, that comes on the heels of three blow-up games and is heavily TD-dependent. I don’t like to play the “if you take X out” game but his floor is probably lower than you’d expect, and his ceiling isn’t going to get realized without multiple touchdowns. I don’t like relying on multiple TD for an RB1 output any given week so that’s just not a bankable role for me personally.
How to Play the Market: I think a lot of people still believe in Jacobs’ talent, and I’m not suggesting I don’t. Perhaps it’s simply that we’ve overrated his talent and therefore overvalued his role. This could conceivably be the highest he’s valued for the rest of his career and I would not expect his perceived value to be substantially lower than it was this past offseason. If you can sell for what you thought you could get for him before the season began (or even 90% of it), I would probably do that. If you’re a believer, now’s probably the best time to go after him.
Honorable Mentions: Will Fuller V (WR – HOU)
You can find me on Twitter @DynastyFFGuy.
1 Per PlayerProfiler (https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/).
2 Per spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-football-team/jd-mckissic-19712/).
3 Per Sports Reference (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/gabriel-davis-1.html).
4 Per Football Outsiders (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/foplus/dvoa-database/basic-offensive-defensive-line-stats?year=2020&offense_defense=offense, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2020).
5 Per Next Gen Stats (https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw).
