Pop, Lock(ett), and Drop…Expectations
Another day, another fantasy article where I force a punny title.
Tyler Lockett is one half of the dynamic duo residing over Seattle and honestly, it should be stated from the jump that Seattle’s transformation from one of the run heaviest offenses to having two top-six WRs in fantasy has been nuts and fun to watch. One of the issues facing this tandem is certainly that we have seen weeks where Metcalf and Lockett almost tag in and out as to who is going to be the productive one, but with that unpredictability and for the rest of the fantasy football season, I think you should be wary of Tyler Lockett and that you should start tempering your expectations.
DK Metcalf is WR3 while Tyler Lockett is sitting at WR6 in FanDuel Scoring, granted he is right behind Will Fuller who is done for the season so he is basically WR5. So what’s the problem? 1) Boom or bust with misleading numbers, and 2) ROS opponents.
If you take a look at Tyler Lockett’s fantasy weeks, you will see two obvious outliers. Everyone can have a big game here and there, but Lockett went absolutely nuts in week 3 (9 receptions, 100 yards, 3 TDs, 32.5 FD fantasy points) and week 7 (15 receptions, 200 yards, 3 TDs, and 45.5 FD fantasy points). Through 11 games this season he has 70 receptions for 771 yards and 8 TDs. If you combined his performances in weeks 3 and 7, they would account for 34% of his receptions (24), 39% of his total yards (300), 75% of his touchdowns (6) and 78% of his total fantasy points (78). So then you would have to ask yourself, what happened in the other nine games? Lockett totaled 82.1 fantasy points for an average of 9.1 points per week. That’s rough, but even further examination of his numbers shows a bigger problem. In those nine weeks, he had 5 weeks where he scored under 9 points, 1 week at exactly 9.1 points and only 3 weeks where he scored above that average, topping out at 17.2 point in Week 11.
Let’s do a comparison with the WR1 and the WR12 to see how Lockett fairs. Tyreek Hill is the WR1 in fantasy and has 226.1 points on the season. Let’s take out his two best games (51.4, 28.6 ), and that leaves us with a 9-game average of 16.2 points per game. The WR12 on the season is Mike Evans who has 151.3 points. If we take out his two best games (21.7, 19.9), he has a 9-game average of 12.1 points. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the WR22 and has 128.2 points on the season. Same process, take out his best two games (21.9, 18.3) and JuJu is averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game. What this should tell you is that with this per-game basis, your confidence level in Lockett, at this point should be that of a low-end WR2, high-end flex play, with hopes of a Boom game.
Transitioning to point two with ROS opponents, the next two weeks that are important in getting into the fantasy football playoffs for most leagues, you are going to want to fire up Tyler Lockett. In week 13, Lockett and the Seahawks face the Giants and follow it up with a matchup against the J-E-T-S, Points, points, points. The NY Giants have allowed the 16th most fantasy points to WRs, and they are giving up an average of 29.7 fantasy points per game to receivers. With a middle of the road matchup, you can still throw Lockett out there, but he is going to retain that low-WR2, high flex in week 13. In week 14 (when a number of fantasy football playoffs start if your league avoids week 17), however, he plays the Jets who are giving up the third-most receiving yards in the NFL and are giving up 33.4 fantasy points per game to WRs which is the fifth-worst in the NFL. Just like with any other player, you can feel confident at the chance that Lockett has a good game against the Jets.
These next two weeks are going to seem like sunshine and rainbows for Lockett compared to his final three games against the Washington Football Team, Rams, and 49ers. All three of these teams are in the top-six for fewest receiving yards to WRs (3rd, 1st, and 6th respectively) and all three of them are top-nine in fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs (2nd, 1st, 9th). Lockett hasn’t faced WFT, but in games earlier this season against the Rams and 49ers he had 9.1 points and 5.3 points. These are definitely going to be matchups that you want to play closely and if you do make the fantasy football playoffs, and you happen to be in a must-win championship game Week 16/17, you are going to want to regard Lockett as a flex-option and you’re going to have to make a tough decision on whether or not you think he can help win you that ‘ship.