Welcome to the “Plays and Fades” of Week 7! We have entered the bye weeks and injuries are happening everywhere, which makes setting your lineups difficult. This is where we breakdown matchups to help you find the right players to play and which players to avoid each week.
Bye weeks can often force our hands on who we play and who we fade, but if there’s a chance to make a choice, this article will help you make it. It’s essential to make sure you’re playing your studs, but even some of them can be risky plays depending on who they are matched up against. This article highlights key matchups for you to exploit or avoid by providing you with information on six players at each position, three to play and three to fade. Without any further ado, let’s get into it!
Quarterbacks
Plays
- Drake Maye @ JAX (UK)
- Maye looked good in his rookie debut as the starter for the Patriots. He connected on 20 of his 33 pass attempts for 243 yards and three touchdowns. There was also another 38 yards that Maye was able to pick up with his legs, scoring a total of 21.52 points and finishing as QB10 on the week.
- This week, the young quarterback gets possibly the best matchup he’ll have all year in the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have given up the most points to opposing quarterbacks, allowing on average 24.1 PPG. If the Jaguars receiving game can catch some of their own passes, this should be a good scoring game that will provide plenty of opportunities for Maye to rack up some points of his own.
- Baker Mayfield vs BAL
- Mayfield’s bounce back last year was fun to watch, but this season has been something to behold so far. As QB2 on the year, Mayfield has been putting up numbers against some of the toughest defenses in the league. He’s averaging 23.4 PPG, which is second best in the league behind only reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson. That’s including his down game in Week 3 against the Denver Broncos when he only scored 9.52 points.
- Did you know that Mayfield and Jackson were both drafted in 2018 at opposite ends of the first round? This week will be a matchup to watch, as the two go toe to toe in this battle of offensive goliaths. Both defenses have been susceptible to opposing quarterbacks, so there’s a good chance this becomes a shoot out between the two teams.
- Justin Herbert @ ARI
- This year has been quite the step back from where Herbert once sat on top of the quarterback world. It’s difficult to say whether that’s because of injury or new offensive scheming. Still, it’s been noticeable and people have abandoned Herbert to the waiver wire. This is your chance to grab him and plug him in for the next few weeks, but especially this first week against the Arizona Cardinals who have given up the league’s fourth most points per game, with 20 on average to opposing quarterbacks.
Fades
- Anthony Richardson vs MIA
- Richardson is returning from injury, which is problematic in it’s own right. Add in the fact that even while he’s been healthy, he’s play has been subpar, averaging 15.67 PPG over the first three games. A small sample size for sure, but one that tells the story of Anthony Richardson so far in his career: only a few games played, some big games, some down games, and then dealing with injuries.
- Add in the fact that Richardson is playing the Miami Dolphins, who are playing decently on defense against opposing quarterbacks, and this week becomes even more troublesome. The Dolphins are the best in the league against opposing quarterbacks, both because of their defense and the fact that the game script has gotten away from them. If you’ve waited this long for Richardson to play, you can forego another week.
- Will Levis @ BUF
- This one doesn’t take too much explanation if you’ve had the chance to watch his play. Levis has only broke 15 points once so far this season. The Buffalo Bills have given up 15.8 points on average to opposing quarterbacks, so Levis has a chance to break that 15 mark again, but I wouldn’t count on it.
- Aaron Rodgers @ PIT
- I’m Richard Sickels and I am once again asking you to beware of the dysfunctional Jets. In particular, this week we’re fading Rodgers. He has been fairly decent this year, coming in as QB18 on the season so far, depending on the scoring in your league. There’s a lot of optimism around the fact that he now has Davante Adams back in the mix, but I’m reserving my excitement for another week when he’s had some time to learn the playbook.
- This week in particular is going to be more difficult for Rodgers, as he goes up against the formidable Pittsburgh Steelers offense. They have only given up 13.2 points on average to opposing quarterbacks. Even if Rodgers and company are able to overcome the defense, it should be a low scoring game as Russell Wilson will be the quarterback for the Steelers for the first time this year and he should be dealing with some rust. Pivot to someone else this week if you can, because Rodgers might not get you there.
Running Backs
Plays
- Austin Ekeler vs CAR
- Ekeler has been serviceable as a RB2/Flex option so far this season, although hasn’t had too large of an impact as of yet. He’s averaging 11.5 PPG in a limited role behind Brian Robinson but has been used in the passing game well, with 198 yards on 16 targets where he has caught all but one of the passes.
- This week in particular is intriguing, however, due to the team they are playing and the fact that Robinson is coming off of a knee injury suffered in Week 5. They might focus on feeding the ball to Robinson, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they eased him back into things. It would make sense given the fact that they are playing the Carolina Panthers this week, who have given up the most points to running backs this year. At 31.9 PPG surrendered to backfields, Ekeler should easily get involved and have a decent week.
- Tony Pollard @ BUF
- The team who has given up the second most points to running backs in the Buffalo Bills, which brings us to their opposing running back, Pollard. This is a great matchup that the Titans should be able to exploit. The only concern is that the game script gets wonky given the fact that the Titans will probably be playing from behind. Still, Pollard has been better than expected him the Titans offensive line, averaging 15.2 PPG through the first six weeks.
- Tank Bigsby vs NE
- I don’t know what happened to Etienne, and it makes me sad, but Bigsby has been a boon for those who were smart enough to pick him up already off of waiver wires. Etienne is still possibly dealing with an injury, but even if he does play, expect Bigsby to have a big role in the offense given his efficiency.
- This might be chasing points, but Bigsby runs like a freight train that can jump the tracks. His Week 5 performance of 25.9 points is what we’re hoping for and, if Etienne does sit out again, he should make a push at making it happen. The Patriots defense is not the defense of yore and are exploitable at the running position, as they have given up the fifth most points to opposing running backs. Since no one seems capable of catching the ball in Jacksonville, they should be leaning on the run!
Fades
- Najee Harris vs NYJ
- Najee is coming off of a 20+ point game and I’m calling to fade him!? Well, the Jets defense is a whole other monster and I am concerned about his production this week. They rank 24th in points allowed to running backs, which is nothing to sneeze at. Plus, prior to the 20 points, the most Harris had put up was 13.6. Then there’s the fact that even with Jaylen Warren out, Najee only played 46% of the snaps. All of this is screaming to bench the Steeler’s running back.
- Jahmyr Gibbs @ MIN
- If you have Jahmyr Gibbs you’re probably playing him regardless, but I would be concerned with the matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. To start off with, the Vikings are giving up the second least amount of points to running backs at 13.3 points on average per game. A fair amount of this is because of the game script teams have to adjust to in order to keep up with the Vikings. They continuously blow teams out in the first half, forcing them to focus on the pass in the second half. If you can pivot, it would behoove you to do so.
- James Conner vs LAC
- Conner has been his usual dependable self this year, but there have been some hiccups, as well. Coming off of a game where he suffered an ankle injury, there is concern about how he will compete in the coming weeks. Add in the fact that the Cardinals face the Chargers who are giving up the fourth least amount of points to running backs and it seems like a no brainer to pivot here.
Wide Receivers
Plays
- Mike Evans vs BAL
- Are you ready for a barn burner?! Because this is going to be one heck of a matchup between the Buccaneers and the Ravens, and Mike Evans is going to be doing the torching. As always, you have to be looking at who is giving up points in these matchups and the Baltimore Ravens are giving up the most points to opposing wide receivers at a clip of 36.9 PPG on average.
- The future Hall of Famer (That’s right, I said it!) has been putting up numbers this season. It has been a bit of a boom or bust situation, but this week should be a good one given what was stated above. Add in the fact that WR14 on the year has broke 20 points three times so far this year and is averaging 14.3 PPG, and it’s easy to see why he’s a must start. Maybe this one is even too easy….
- Amon-Ra St Brown @ MIN
- If you want easy though, it’s not going to be much easier than Amon-Ra St Brown against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend. The Vikings have given up the third most points to wide receivers, also eclipsing the 30 point barrier on an average per week basis.
- ARSB is averaging 16.4 PPG each week and that average should only go up after this weekend. In the two contests that he faced the Vikings in last year, ARSB put up 28.6 and 27.4 points against a relatively similar defense. While the Vikings are cooking with a little more spice this year, St Brown is going to get his. Set it and forget it this week, my friends.
- Jordan Addison vs DET
- Addison is a bit of a spicier pick but I’m playing him everywhere I have him. He’s an integral part of the Vikings offense, as seen in his Week 4 matchup against the Green Bay Packers when he put up 22.9 points. Even looking at Addison’s production against the Jets Week 5 you’ll notice that he put had eight targets. Unfortunately, he didn’t put up much on those targets. Still, it has to be said that the former first round pick has the faith of his team and will be a big part of their game plan.
- Looking at it from the other side of the ball is kind of funny given the fact that the Vikings give up the third most points and the Lions give up the fourth most points. Add in the fact that the Lions are going to be focusing coverage on Justin Jefferson like every team does and Addison is a must start with the looks he’s going to get. Plug him in and reap the benefits this week.
Fades
- Michael Pittman vs MIA
- Anthony Richardson is returning, which would usually excite me, but I’m not a fan of how they complement each other or lack thereof. Kevin Tompkins said it best on the Waiver Wire show a few weeks back when he talked about how Pittman is more of a possession receiver, which doesn’t really fit what Richardson does. He stretches the field with big-time throws and runs a lot, but overall, he doesn’t hit Pittman with the targets he should be getting.
- Add in the fact that they are going up against the Miami Dolphins, who have given up the third least amount of points to opposing wide receivers, and it should be easy to see why you should fade Pittman this week.
- Brandon Aiyuk vs KC
- Aiyuk has been disappointing this year and I don’t see it getting any easier this week. He’s had one game that broke double digits and that was against the suspect Arizona Cardinals defense. This week he gets the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense who have given up the seventh least average PPG to opposing wide receivers. Bench him and find someone else to play this week.
- George Pickens vs NYJ
- It’s pretty simple: If you have a player going up against the Jets, you probably don’t want to play them. Pickens is no different. Add in the fact that this will be the first game that Russell Wilson will play this year and there are plenty of reasons to be worried about that offense in general. Fade Pickens and find another receiver to bring home the win.
Tight Ends
Play
- George Kittle vs KC
- Now it has already been said that the Chiefs defense is good, but if they do have a weakness, it’s at the tight end position. Cue George Kittle this week. In a bleak landscape of tight ends this year, Kittle stands out on top with 17.3 PPG on average. He’s broken 20 points three times and there’s a good chance he does it again against the Chiefs.
- Dalton Schultz @ GB
- There are only a few times you can really trust Schultz and play him confidently, and this might be the week to do it. He faces the Packers who have given up the third most points to tight ends. If you are in need of a tight end this weekend and he’s available on your waiver wire, go pick him up and plug him in.
- Kyle Pitts vs SEA
- Pitts has now scored double digit points in three weeks this year. Nothing to write home about, but it’s happening. And as the year goes on, you can tell that he and Cousins are getting better chemistry. It is only a matter of time until he puts up the points we were all expecting him to. This week is finally going to be that week, as he faces the Seahawks who have given up the fifth most points to tight ends.
Fades
- Pat Freiermuth vs NYJ
- As stated, the Jets defense is one of the toughest matchups for any position. Freiermuth has only broken double digit targets one time this year and has only had five targets or more twice. Fade him and sleep peacefully.
- Dalton Kincaid vs TEN
- This one hurts. Kincaid was supposed to blow up this year with the number of targets that were vacated in Buffalo but has done nothing with them. This week he goes up against the best tight end defense in the Tennessee Titans. You might be playing him regardless, but I’m fading him and trying to find something on the waiver wire to help out this week.
- Tucker Kraft vs HOU
- Kraft had two weeks of being TE1 this season, which was remarkable. That said, those were the only weeks he scored more than six points. Expect him to be an afterthought in this matchup against the Houston Texans who are giving up the third fewest points to the position.
Plays
- Buffalo Bills vs TEN
- Tennessee has been terrible this season, giving up the most points to opposing defenses. With homefield advantage, the Bills should put this game away easily. Their rostered in only 37% of leagues on Sleeper. Grab them off the waiver wire and smile as your defense carries you to a win this week.
- Cincinnati Bengals @ CLE
- It confuses me that the Titans are the worst given the fact that the Browns exist. They traded away their top receiver, the backup running back went down to injury, and who knows whether or not Nick Chubb will be ready for the matchup this week. Bengals are not a sexy defense, but they should be able to handle business this week. They’re available in 85% of leagues. You know what to do.
- Indianapolis Colts vs MIA
- Does Miami even have a quarterback? The run game could cause a problem, but it should be shut down easily. The Colts will be a fun play this week that should garner you much needed points in leagues that start defenses.
Fades
- Baltimore Ravens @ TB
- Typically, the Ravens are known for their stout defense, but this year has not been the case. They’re bleeding points to opposing defenses, and this week, they go up against one of the best offenses in the league. Look elsewhere this week before they bring down your total points scored.
- Seattle Seahawks @ ATL
- Atlanta is finally starting to click on all cylinders on offense, which spells disaster for the Seahawks. Opposing defenses have scored the fifth-fewest points against Atlanta. Let them fade into dust as Kirk Cousins Thanos snaps them out of positive points this coming week.
- Minnesota Vikings vs DET
- This one is tough. How do you bench the best defense in the league that is killing the turnover differential? Well, you do it when their playing one of the best offenses in the league. Amazingly the Cowboys only scored zero points last week instead of negative points after that insane beat down from the Lions. Find another defense to play this week.
