For many of us, Week 4 was a disheartening blend of injury and sub-par performances. As I mentioned last week, we need to be a goldfish and have short-term memory loss. Week 4 presents a whole new opportunity, regardless of your Week 3 outcomes.
With so many injuries to what was considered “must-start” players, it is much more challenging to fade players who present a stable floor in deeper leagues. That being said, I will do my best to present you with some players who will restore your faith in fantasy football humanity and help you navigate another week of fantasy failure.
Quarterbacks
Plays
- Jayden Daniels @ ARI
- Arizona allows 10th most points allowed to QB…
- Rapport with McLaurin is improving, making Daniels more than a rushing threat.
- Washington’s Defense should factor in a high-scoring output
- Caleb William vs. LAR
- The Rams’ defense is a joke. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 250+ passing yards per game and seven passing touchdowns (the second-most).
- The Bears proved that they are willing to let Williams throw the ball a ton (not always a great thing), but this matchup could prove beneficial.
- Geno Smiht @ DET
- 3rd in passing, 3rd in completion percentage over expected, 4th lowest Off Target %…Detroit still a pass-friendly defense
Fade
- Brock Purdy vs. NE
- Bend but don’t break for the Pats’ passing D. Despite Purdy’s efficiency, I am not as excited this week for another week without Deebo and potentially Kittle. The Pats secondary, led by Christian Gonzalez, has given up the 3rd most passing yards, but is averaging only one passing TD allowed/gm
- Jordan Love vs. MIN
- IF Jordan Love plays, I expect it to be a cautious and challenging one against Brian Flores’ Vikings defense. Give it one more week before putting Love back in your lineup.
- Trevor Lawrence@ HOU
- You name a passing stat or an efficiency metric, and you won’t find Lawrence’s name anywhere near the top of that list. He has flat-out bad, and a pass rush like Houston’s will cause fits.
Running Backs
Plays
- Najee Harris @ IND
- Injury to Warren adds to an already dominant workload against a Colts defense that has allowed a league-high, 409 yards rushing.
- Chuba Hubbard @ CIN
- Andy Dalton has really opened up some rushing lanes…”a quote I never thought I would be writing”. The Bengals defense has been anything but spectacular to start the season. 26 touches, 169 yards last week despite playing less than 60% of snaps.
- Brian Robinson, Jr.@ ARI
- He averages just over 16 touches per game, which could see some growth without Austin Ekeler. While Arizona may be a bit stingy against the run, Robinson’s ability with the ball in his hands could lead to a similar output to David Montgomery’s vs Arizona in Wk3. 23/105/1TD
Fade
- J.K. Dobbins vs. vs KC
- The Chiefs’ run defense has been really good, and a banged up Chargers’ O-line won’t help matters. Dobbins should have the volume to provide an “ok” floor, but the ceiling is way out of reach.
- Rachaad White vs. BAL
- Vic Fangio and the Eagles D really demonstrated signs of growth last week against the potent Saints’ offense. Look for White to see enough of his workload taken over by Bucky Irving to be a cautious start, leaning into the “fade” category.
- Jerome Ford @ LV
- The back and forth volume between Ford and Foreman is causing headaches. It was Ford’s backfield last week, but he didn’t do much against a “plus” matchup vs the Giants. Add in the injuries to Jedrick Wills and Joel Bitonio, and the outlook is even murkier. Ford himself had a DNP and LP to start the week.
Wide Receivers
Wide Receiver
Plays
- Diontae Johnson @ CIN
- Andy Dalton proved to be the elixir to get Dionta back on track. Now, with Adam Thielen out of the picture, the target volume could rise in Week 4.
- Stefon Diggs vs. JAX
- Both Dell and Nico have appeared on the injury list to begin the week, and while Nico may not be at risk of missing the game, it does bode well for Diggs’ value in Week 4. Dominates against single high looks, which the Jags deploy often.
- Rome Oduze vs. LAR
- If Keenan Allen were to miss this game, it’s wheels up for Odunze in Week 4. Keep an eye on practice reports. Even if Allen plays, the Williams to Odunze connection is improving weekly.
Fade
- Michael Pittman, Jr. vs. PIT
- The passing volume, or lack thereof, in Indy is concerning for all pass-catchers. Pittmas has an even more difficult matchup as he looks to be shadowed by Joey Porter Jr.
- Garrett Wilson vs. DEN
- Cam Taylor-Britt has been playing pretty well on the season, only allowing an NFL passer rating to QBs targeting wide receivers to under a rating of 81. This season, the Bengals have only allowed wide receivers 55 yards through the air. It’s not looking great for McLaurin yet AGAIN.
Tight Ends
Play
- Dallas Goedert @ TB
- Last week was an indicator of the Eagles’ passing focus with AJB and Smith leaning towards not playing. Goedert could easily be the TE1 on the week.
- Dalton Schultz vs. JAX
- Similar to Goedert, Schultz could see an increased role with injuries to the Texans (Dell, Mixon) and potentially cautious approach with Nico.
Fade
- Mark Andrews vs. BUF
- Snap counts Wk1. 73% Wk2. 63% Wk3. 33%. When Charlie Kolar sees more snaps than Andrews, alarm bells go off…albeit mildly because of previous history with Lamar. 82nd out of 90 WR/TE who have ran >50 routes in target per route run at .12
- Sam Laporta vs. SEA
- With LaPorta playing on MNF, his injury status is a major concern for fantasy managers. The ankle’s DNP on Thursday isn’t encouraging. A crowded room in Detroit, ankle injury, and MNF all lead to a fade. Even more discouraging is that if you look at the Mark Andrews stat above, LaPorta has an even lower target/route run metric!
Plays
- Raiders vs. CLE
- The Cleveland Browns have allowed a league high 16 sacks.
- Chiefs vs. LAC
- Chargers potentially without Herbert, Rayshawn Slater and Joe Alt. Need I say more?
Fade
- Ravens vs. BUF
- Josh Allen has only been sacked on 4% of dropbacks. Buffalo is really cruising offensively, and Baltimore’s pass d has been porous, to say the least.
- Seahawks @ DET
- Similar to the Ravens, a matchup against a very potent Lions team is not a great spot to be in. While the Lions may have four interceptions, a few should not have fallen on Goff’s shoulders or shouldn’t have happened at all.