For many of us, Week 3 was a disheartening blend of injury and sub-par performances. As I mentioned last week, we need to be a goldfish and have short-term memory loss. Week 3 presents a whole new opportunity, regardless of your Week 2 outcomes.
With so many injuries to what was considered “must-start” players, it is much more challenging to fade players who present a stable floor in deeper leagues. That being said, I will do my best to present you with some players who will restore your faith in fantasy football humanity and help you navigate another week of fantasy failure.
Quarterbacks
Plays
- Patrick Mahomes @ ATL
- The Chiefs suffered a major blow to their offense when Isiah Pacheco fractured his fibula in Week 2. With Carson Steele and Samaje Perine likely to carry the load for the Chiefs’ backfield, Mahomes will need to be trusted to carry the team for the foreseeable future.
- Look at Mahomes’ passing volume to see an uptick and a return to vintage Mahomes, which we haven’t seen for a while. The visit to the Mercedes Benz dome could really work out well for the Chiefs’ passing game and Mahomes. In 10 career games inside a dome, Mahomes is 10-0, averages 314.5 yards passing, 2.3 TDs, .25 INTs, and has a 66% completion rate.
- For fantasy managers considering benching Mahomes for the flavor of the month, reconsider!
- Derek Carr vs. PHI
- This is a formal apology to Saints’ fans in advance! I am sorry that this will inevitably be a curse on the early success of Derek Carr and the Saints’ passing game.
- Klint Kubiak has been a blessing for the Saints’, and the NFL, providing a fast paced and electric offense. Derek Carr has been the catalyst behind this offense, leading the NFL in TD%, yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, QBR and passer rating.
- Philadelphia has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing QB’s, and is 8th in passing DVOA. New Orleans has done an incredible job keeping Carr upright, allowing only two sacks on the season, which is key against a dangerous Eagles’ pass-rush.
- Jared Goff @ ARI
- A return to the well of sorts. Unfortunately, the well has been somewhat empty for Goff early on. His QB18 and QB27 finishes to begin the season have left fantasy managers holding an empty bucket.
- Arizona has provided opposing fantasy QBs the 3rd most points to begin the season, and this week should be no different. Expect plenty of fireworks in this matchup as both secondaries are potential sieves.
Fade
- Brock Purdy @ LAR
- No Kittle, Deebo, CMC, and only Bradon Aiyuk to save the day means a NO for Brock Purdy. We all know his success comes from getting the ball to his primary playmakers on the field, but without 75% of his main ones, the odds do not look in his favor.
- Caleb Williams @ INDY
- 8.3 fantasy points per game. While he has a better matchup this week versus the Colts, I don’t see him performing higher than mid- to low QB2. Instead, I won’t recommend him until he shows more for fantasy managers.
- Will Levis vs. Green Bay
- GTFO here with him as a viable option until he does something special. He’s a fade.
Running Backs
Plays
- Tony Pollard vs. Green Bay
- Leading the team in snaps at RB, Pollard is fully entrenched as the team’s leading rusher this year. Green Bay is allowing running backs an average of 5.07 yards per carry on the season (6th most in the NFL), per Fantasy Points Data. With the passing game struggling, look for Pollard to get a healthy workload this week versus “The Pack”!
- Chuba Hubbard @ LV
- The Las Vegas Raiders, on the season, are allowing an average of 163.5 rushing yards a game to opposing running backs. Hubbard’s 4.9 yards per carry average plus his 13th-ranked yards after contact per attempt on the season make him very playable this week for fantasy managers.
- Zach Charbonet vs. MIA
- With Kenneth Walker out this week, look for this second-year running back to get the majority of touches for the Seahawks this week against a Dolphins team that got eviscerated by James Cook last week for a tune of 78 rushing yards, 17 receiving yards and 28.5 fantasy points.
Fade
- Kyren Williams vs. SF
- The 49ers rank in the middle of the pack against the run, and I would usually be concerned if the Rams were firing on all cylinders, but they’re not. No Puka, No Cooper Kupp, a flash in the pan Colby Parkinson. They’ll be loading up the box versus Kyren Williams.
- Ezekiel Elliott vs. BAL
- The Ravens have allowed 49.5 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, along with the lowest yards-per-carry average in the NFL. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
- D’Andre Swift @ INDY
- With DeForest Buckner placed on IR, D’Andre Swift would have a great opportunity in this week’s matchup. Too bad Swift doesn’t like rushing up the gut. Of 24 of his rushing attempts this season, 15 have been him bouncing to the outside with 8 up the middle of the field. Traditionally speaking that has been his M.O. over the course of his career.
- Swift has been VERY inefficient this season, so don’t expect much this week.
Wide Receivers
Wide Receiver
Plays
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. MIA
- The JSN experience keeps trucking along this week versus Miami, as he’ll be lined up in the slot versus Kader Kohou, who has a PFF rating of 30.6 and allows 14.5 yards per reception on the season. With Jalen Ramsey and DK Metcalf going toe-to-toe in this matchup, look for JSN to be “the guy” for the Seahawks. * Fun Fact*: JSN is 9th in the league in 1st read targets on the season among all wide receivers, per FTNData.
- D.J. Moore vs. IND
- In slot coverage, Kenny Moore II might be a solid IDP Fantasy Football DB, but he is NOT that great at defending players out of the slot. He’s allowed two TDs and an NFL passer rating to a wide receiver when targeted of 152.9, which is almost close to perfect. What I’m trying to say is that D.J. Moore has never been in a better spot to take advantage of a matchup so far this season than he will be this week.
- Jalen Tolbert vs.DAL
- Tolbert wins the prize of lining up against the poorest-graded cornerback of the Baltimore Ravens secondary, Marlon Humphrey. Tolbert is second among the Cowboys WR group in targets on the season, is first among the “Big 3” WRs in Dallas in aDOT, and is going against Humphrey, who is allowing a 61.5% reception percentage, making Tolbert an excellent FLEX play in deep, leagues.
Fade
- Quentin Johnston vs. PIT
- The Steelers allow the 8th fewest fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position as the boast the 10th best coverage unit in the NFL, per PFF. Pass.
- Terry McLaurin @ CIN
- Cam Taylor-Britt has been playing pretty well on the season, only allowing an NFL passer rating to QBs targeting wide receivers to under a rating of 81. This season, the Bengals have only allowed wide receivers 55 yards through the air. It’s not looking great for McLaurin yet AGAIN.
- Wan’Dale Robinson vs. CLE
- Greg Newsome II and Cameron Mitchell, two CBs for the Browns who have played an almost identical amount of snaps at slot corner this season, have both allowed a sub-sixty NFL passer rating when targeted. Look for Wan’Dale to hit a bump in the road versus Cleveland this week
Tight Ends
Play
- Zach Ertz @ CIN
- When trailing in games this season, Zach Ertz has been first on the Commanders in 1st read %, target %, and in snap share %. Look for Washington to be trailing versus the Bengals and for Ertz to eat up his opportunities.
- Travis Kelce @ ATL
- Have faith this week in a return to form for Travis Kelce. The word disappointment doesn’t come close to justifying the first two weeks for Trav, but the loss of Pacheco and the increase in pass-play percentage should provide the ingredients for a return to form.
- Like Mahomes’ success in a dome, Kelce has also been fantastic on the speedy track. In 11 games, Kelce averages a robust 8/102/.8 away from the elements.
- Brock Bowers v CAR
- Have we decided that the Carolina Panthers will be our attacking point for opposing TEs? Through two weeks they have been targeted 15 times to the opposing TEs. It’s easy to assume that they can be attacked on all fronts, both offensively and defensively.
- It goes without saying that Bowers should be a must-start going forward, but I am simply here to remind anyone who may have drafted Bowers as their #2 that there may be no one worth sending him to your bench, especially in this matchup. Despite only seeing a 67% route participation to begin the season, Bowers leads all TEs in targets, receptions, and yards.
Fade
- Mike Gesicki vs. WSH
- Washington has been very stingy against tight ends, holding them dead last in the NFL in fantasy PPG. With Bobby Wagner patrolling the middle of the field, look for Gesicki to have a long day this week.
- Pat Freiermuth vs. LAC
- What has he done? WHAT HAS HE DONE to warrant any reason to start him this week or any week? I’ll take the “L” here if something happens, but I don’t think it will.
- Packers TEs @ TEN
- The Titans only allow 1.4 points per game to the tight end position. Plus, with so many other receiving options on this team, fade any and all of Packer’s tight ends this week.
Plays
- SEA vs. MIA
- Seattle is giving up the fewest receiving yards per game, which does not bode well for the Miami Dolphins’ receiving options. The Dolphins are already in a bad spot with their quarterback, Tua Tagovioloa, being placed on IR.
- TB vs. DEN
- Denver is 12th fewest in the league in receiving yards, 6th fewest rushing yards, and 11th fewest passing yards per game. Bo Nix for Denver, who has the 27th-best pass percentage among all QBs in the NFL, is in for a long day against the 8th-best pass-rushing unit, per PFF.
- CHI @ IND
- 4th in coverage, 5th in pass rushing, and yet only 12th in run defense overall, which means the Bears should make the Colts one-dimensional in this matchup.
Fade
- WSH @ CIN
- Giving up the 13th most passing yards per game and a league-leading six touchdowns through the air on the season, look for this Bengals offense to light up Washington on Monday Night Football this week!
- LAR @ SF
- Potentially, no Kittle, no Deebo, and no CMC = No Problem for this Rams DST, which is tied for 5th in terms of fantasy points scored on average for the season.
- Buf vs. JAX
- Evan Engram might be out again dealing with a hamstring injury, the Bills have only allowed 32.5 receiving yards per game to the slot postition and an astouding 14.0 yards per game to WR1s…yeah…fire up wth Bills this week.
