The adrenaline of Week 1 has been drawn back a bit, but no reason to take your foot off the gas pedal. The fantasy season is a recipe of pre-season preparation and in-season management. Each week I will take a look at a handful of players at each position who will give you the upper hand (plays) as well as some who can ruin the dish (fades).
Week 1 was full of roster bombs on offense, but with each week, preparation only sweetens the dish. As Ted Lasso once said, “Be a Goldfish”. If you are not familiar with Ted Lasso, what he meant by that is to have the memory of a goldfish, which is a very short one! While I don’t suggest completely ignoring Week 1, it is fruitful to look at opportunities and trusting the process!
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields @ DEN
- This is obviously dependent upon the health of Russell Wilson, but early reports are that Fields is most likely to start Week 2. In Week 1, Fields had 14 rushing attempts. Dating back to 2017, there have been 188 instances of QBs rushing at least 10 times in a game, in those situations, 72% have finished with >18 fantasy points (QB1).
- Denver just allowed 30 yards and a TD to Geno Smith on the ground.
Kyler Murray v LAR
- Brighter days are ahead for Kyler Murray after Week 1s QB15 finish. The usage of Marvin Harrison Jr wasn’t what fantasy managers had in mind, but the encouraging news is the usage of multiple WRs in Dortch and Wilson, along with Trey McBride.
- The Arizona defense is extremely generous, and should result in a shootout with the Rams. Pair the high passing volume and usage of Murray’s rushing upside (5-57), and we have the making of a rebound week for Murray and a potential QB1 overall.
Jared Goff v TB
- Despite getting the W vs the Rams in Week 1, Goff was underwhelming for fantasy managers. Look for Goff to exploit the Bucs’ pass defense and utilize Amon-Ra more than he did in Week 1.
- Tampa Bay was exploited by the rushing upside of Jayden Daniels, which Goff doesn’t have, but they do have the capabilities to slow down the Lions’ rushing game. With both secondaries below average, the 51.5 implied point total should deliver plenty of fantasy fireworks.
Fade
Trevor Lawrence v CLE
- Trevor will have his hands full against the Browns’ defense, who just held Dak Prescott to 11.5 fantasy points in Week 1. Lawrence was only able to complete 57% of his passes against a lesser Dolphins D. While the rapport with Brian Thomas Jr will continue to develop, I see TLaw as no better than a decent QB2 option on the week.
Joe Burrow @ KC
- Without his full complement of pieces, Burrow just couldn’t put up his typical eye-popping numbers. Add in the apparent hand issue that plagued him this past week, and I am fading Burrow as a QB1 this week.
Derek Carr @ DAL
- Last week’s QB hero isn’t a sustainable floor for Week 2. Sure, Carr was extremely efficient (82% completion), but his 13% TD rate is bound to take a step back
- The Cowboys’ pass rush will pose a serious problem for Carr and the Saints.
Running Backs
Plays
J.K. Dobbins @ CAR
- I am sorry to say, but Dobbins is not going to average 13.5 yards per carry in Week 2. What will happen is that the Chargers will lean on the run in a “plus-matchup” against the Panthers. The Panthers just allowed 180 yards rushing the New Orleans Saints and their makeshift offensive line.
- The Panthers sure seem like the perfect blend of a bad offense and a bad defense that lends well to a run-first offense that can run the clock once they build a lead.
Jordan Mason @ MIN
- The news on McCaffrey’s injury continues to lean in the wrong direction. It was recently reported that he is now suffering from Achilles tendonitis. While it’s not as severe as an Achilles tear, it is a pain tolerance issue.
- Filling in for CMC in Week 1, Mason was given 28 carries, the 2nd highest of the week. Against a tough Jets defense, Mason was 3rd in missed tackles forced, 2nd in rushing yards, and 3rd in yards after contact.
- I expect another heavy workload against a Vikings defense that hasn’t been tested, considering they faced the NYG in Week 1
Brian Robinson Jr v NYG
- Don’t look at the box score as a true indicator of Brian Robinson’s Week 1 performance. While the box score may show 89 total yards and a TD, there was a whole lot of meat left on that bone. Robinson was stopped on the 1-yard line on a very nice catch and run, which Jayden Daniels ran in. There was also another rush from inside the 5, that led to another Daniels’ vulture TD.
Fade
Samaje Perine v CIN
- The water cooler talk was that Samaje Perine was going to be an immediate threat to Isiah Pacheco’s fantasy upside. After a Week 1 showcase where Perine only saw 8 offensive snaps, it’s time to realize that Pacheco is more than capable of a 3-down workload, with an occasional spell from Perine. Barring an injury to Pacheco, I am fading Samaje going forward
Zamir White @ BAL
- It’s too early for the “I told you so” comments….but is it? It appears the Raiders are using the “hot hand” approach, and unless Zamir White is holding a twice-baked potato, it won’t be him. If Week 1 is any indication, Alexander Mattison out-snapped White by a count of 36-22.
- Zamir White is going to need a heavy workload, a handful of targets, and red zone work to be in my lineup. The Raiders face the Ravens in Week 2, and I don’t see a clear path to any of those three factors.
Tony Pollard v NYJ
- Many will see the heavy workload and RB1 finish in Week 1, and assume he is a “must start”. I see a matchup against a Bears team that couldn’t move the ball and fed to the Pollard volume. While the Jets may have just been gashed by Jordan Mason and the 49ers, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The Jets will be much better against a Titans’ O-Line and should be able to provide more sustained drives against this Titans’ defense.
Wide Receivers
Plays
DeMarcus Robinson @ ARI
- Robinson was already a name to monitor, with the Rams running the most 11-personnel in 2023, but now with Puka expected to miss at least four weeks, he is a name to play. DeMarcus played 93% of the snaps in Week 1 and had an 86% route participation, the 22nd highest among WRs.
- Look for the Rams to take full advantage of a Cardinals secondary that allowed the 8th most yards to WRs in Week 1
Keon Coleman @ MIA
- It could be a guessing game each week as to who will lead the Bills in receiving yards, TDs..etc. If Week 1 is any indication though, Coleman might be the name that we should look to first. Coleman led the Bills’ WRs in routes, route %, targets, yards, and 1st-read %. In a matchup that should be good for fantasy points, Coleman should deliver as a solid Flex play in Week 2
DJ Moore @ HOU
- Rome Odunze was scheduled to undergo an MRI and was reported as week-to-week. While that prognosis has improved, it would be a miracle if he suits up for Week 2. The loss of Odunze should mean an even larger role for DJ Moore this week vs HOU. The bigger question is if Caleb Williams can eclipse the 100-yard passing plateau. All jokes aside, it’s safe to assume that there is nowhere to go but up for the 1st overall pick.
- Picking an option between DJM and Keenan Allen could be the bigger gamble, but if both Moore and Allen have similar target %, I expect DJM to do more with the touches. Add in the fact that Allen is a little “banged up” after Week 1 and was already nursing a heel injury, the arrow points even more heavily towards Moore.
Fade
Courtland Sutton v PIT
- Target volume is not the issue when it comes to deciding on putting Sutton in your lineup. Sutton tied for the 2nd most targets in Week 1, but only caught 33% of those passes for a measly 38 yards. The positives could eventually pay off for Sutton, as he was 2nd among WR’s in air yards and the progression of Bo Nix should continue.
- Speaking of Bo Nix; Expect him to be under constant duress from TJ Watt and company. This combination of poor passer rating when targeted (3.5!) and heavy pressure has me looking in other directions than Courtland Sutton.
DK Metcalf @ NE
- DK Metcalf vs Christian Gonzalez! This statement alone has me fading Metcalf, if possible. While Metcalf is the alpha, and capable of putting up WR1 numbers any week, this is the matchup I would try to avoid. In Gonzalez’s young career, he has had the task of going up against Chase, Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Davante Smith, and AJ Brown. In those matchups, he has allowed 13 catches for 117 yards and 0 TDs
Calvin Ridley v NYJ
- Calvin Ridley is another instance of matchup inferiority. While he did have the most targets for the Titans (7) and the 3rd most in the league last week, he failed to eclipse 50 yards. The Jets and Sauce Gardner will do their part to stop Ridley when he lines up across from him. Another week with a hobbled DeAndre Hopkins should mean another week of defenses focused on stopping Ridley.
Tight Ends
Plays
Colby Parkinson @ ARI
- Parkinson was 4th among TEs with five targets. While he may have only had 47 yards receiving on four catches, he did play 88% of the snaps. Considering the Nacua injury, you should expect Parkinson to replicate those numbers at the least.
Pat Freiermuth @ DEN
- In a week full of disappointing TE production, it was nice to see Friermuth account for 18% of the Steelers’ targets. While he didn’t do much with those targets, he does appear to be the clear #2 target in Pitt. The Broncos may have stymied Noah Fant in Week 1, but they did allow the most points to the position in 2023.
Kyle Pitts @ PHI
- Kyle Pitts’ managers rejoice! The box score may not show double-digit targets or triple-digit yardage, but it has that all-important 1 in the TD column. If you watched Cousins and the Falcons, you are well aware that he doesn’t look to stretch the field and will target the short to intermediate, which should mean Kyle Pitts.
- The Eagles have been exploited by slot receivers in the past, and it was evident in Week 1 (Jayden Reed). Pitts lined up in the slot over 45% of the time.
Fade
Jake Ferguson v NO
- I will keep this short and sweet since Sleeper has probably already informed you that Jake Ferguson has gone from Healthy to Questionable. Thoughts and Prayers go out to Jake Ferguson that his prognosis is nothing long-term, but I highly doubt he plays this week.
Dalton Schultz v CHI
- We had our fears that Dalton Schultz would be the odd man out in this offense, and if Week 1 is any indication, it could appear to be true. Schultz is just outside my TE1 rankings for Week 2, and I fear it is TD or bust.
Taysom Hill @ DAL
- Maybe it’s false hope to believe that Taysom Hill won’t have a touch inside the RedZone for a 2nd consecutive week. Hill can be very dangerous if given the high-value touches, but if used like he was in Week 1 (21 snaps), easy fade for me!
Plays
LAC @ CAR
- Rule #1 of streaming defenses in 2024….play the Panthers. That is all
NYJ @ TEN
- Look for the Jets to rebound after a rough game vs SF in Week 1. The Jets were Top 10 in both turnovers and sacks in 2023 and should contribute a little of both in Week 2 against this Titans’ O-Line that just allowed three sacks to the Bears in Week 1, in addition to three turnovers.
PIT @ DEN
- TJ Watt was an absolute menace in Week 1, and will look to continue this theme into Week 2. Bo Nix and company will be under constant pressure, which should result in a handful of sacks. Will crack under pressure
Fade
ATL @ PHI
- The Falcons are going to be an intriguing option as a streaming defense with their ability to stop the run as well as get to the passer with their newly revamped defense, it just won’t be this week. While the Eagles looked a little discombobulated at times in Week 1, they are just too explosive to consider
SF @ MIN
- One of my main focuses in streaming a defense is the potential for takeaways or sacks. While Sam Darnold is the QB, and a takeaway is always a concern, I don’t see the pass rush of SF dominating these Vikings OT as many will.
CAR @ LAC
- The loss of Derrick Brown pretty much eliminates any terrible idea you may have had of streaming the Panthers.
