Welcome to our final installment of Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships. Fortune favors the boring!
You’ll think “I just don’t like the board right now, so I guess I’ll take him.” With our help, you’ll be glad you did. RBs who are rock solid. Wide receivers who are a warm safety blanket. Tight ends who try hard but aren’t try-hards. QBs who make you question why you ever thought of drafting one early. Don’t be too risky. Bet on boring!
Rounding out the divisions, here are the NFC West’s Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships!
Arizona Cardinals – Larry Fitzgerald (QB64, ADP183)
The Arizona Cardinals won the off season! They fleeced Houston by nabbing DeAndre Hopkins. That surely means the death of Larry Fitzgerald, who probably already retired anyway. Right? Perhaps, but, you can add the ghost of Larry Fitz as your final skill position player in the 14th round. (Also, I can’t help but think that Larry Fitz looks like Iron Man in that photo, which is awesome.)
Last year, Larry Fitzgerald had a “true catch” rate of 92.6% according to Fantasydata.com. That means he caught nearly all of the passes that were actually catchable. Only one player had a better true catch rate (Michael Thomas). When Fitz can reach the ball, he reels it in. Importantly, Fitz sees these targets in the red zone. In each of the past three seasons, Fitz was a top-22 wide receiver in terms of red zone targets, including WR6 in 2017.
Yes, DeAndre “Nuke” Hopkins will undoubtedly command lots of targets. But Nuke and Fitz traditionally line up in different positions. As my colleague Todd Barns wrote in his Slot Performance series, nobody in the NFL took more snaps (502, 87.5% of total snaps) from the slot than Larry Fitz in 2019. Conversely, Hopkins ran only 36% of his routes from the slot (211 snaps).
Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury will continue to unleash his air raid offense. That means both Fitz and Hopkins should see plenty of time on the field together. Lucky Larry will help you strike boring fantasy gold at the end of your draft.
Los Angeles Rams – Robert Woods (WR25, ADP56)
Boy, does Robert “Bobby Trees” Woods look bored. Maybe it’s because he’s been stuck inside for four months. Maybe it’s because his toddler has asked him to read “Dragons Love Tacos” for the 17th time tonight. (Side note: great book) Maybe it’s because of his 5th round ADP.
In terms of opportunity, in 2019, Woods was on the field 92.9% of snaps (WR12) and had a true catch rate of 89.1% (WR7). Again, as Todd Barnes previously penned (man, Todd writes some good stuff), Bobby Trees has over 500 receiving yards from the slot in each of the past two seasons. Goff threw the ball to Woods almost 25% of the time that Woods lined up in the slot. Volume and efficiency is what boring players are all about.
Also, if you want to see what kind of respect defenders give Bobby Trees, look no further than his “cushion”. Cushion is the amount of space between a receiver and his assigned defender. In 2019, Woods was the #1 wide receiver in the league with an average of 5.27 yards. Bobby Trees is a dynamic receiver that can run various routes. Need proof? Look no further than his various route charts from 2019 on NFL Next Gen Stats. They almost look like spaghetti flung on a wall.
Woods goes all over the field, giving Jared Goff plenty of ways to get him the ball in space and get you some fantasy points. Stability in your flex. Thy name is Bobby Trees.
San Francisco 49ers – Raheem Mostert (RB28, ADP73)
I am confused too, Raheem. You finished as the RB24 in 2019. Matt Breida and his 155 touches are now in Miami. Everything should be coming up roses for Mostert. Yet, his ADP remains a high-end RB3/Flex in the late 6th round.
Even if you are concerned that Mostert will cede touches to other running backs again (sure, Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon), Mostert’s efficiency is insane. He averaged 1.05 fantasy points per touch (RB7), just behind Christian McCaffrey (1.09) and David Johnson (1.06). Mostert also had the highest percentage of breakaway runs (runs of 15+ yard).
That is all despite Moster seeing 36.4% of snaps (RB45). San Francisco finished second in the league in terms of total rushing yards in 2019. All signs are that Kyle Shanahan will continue to scheme and find creative ways to get his running backs in space. Any increase in snap share should mean a huge increase in Mostert’s fantasy output.
Seattle Seahawks – Tyler Lockett (WR21, ADP51)
Tyler, the Creator of fantasy goodness. Last year, he finished as the WR14 overall and WR24 in fantasy points per game. His current ADP of WR21 seems to be right on point. However, this is more about where Locket is going compared to his teammate, D.K. Metcalf.
Why is Metcalf’s ADP above Locket’s ADP? Did Metcalf run better routes or have more opportunity that just wasn’t realized on the field? Not really.
Lockett had the fifth best target separation among WRs in 2019. When Lockett caught the ball, he was on average 1.91 yards away from the nearest defensive back. Conversely, Metcalf averaged 1.34 yards of separation, which ranked 57th among wide receivers. In 2019, Lockett averaged 2.37 fantasy points per route run (WR19); Metcalf averaged 2.06 fantasy points (WR35). Lockett also beat Metcalf in air yards per target last year (7.3 to 6.5).
My colleague Todd Barnes (he should basically get a writing credit at this point) praised Lockett earlier this year, noting that he nearly tripled the slot targets of any other Seahawks receiver in 2019. Many of these targets appeared in the red zone, as Lockett saw the second most red zone targets and sixth most end zone targets among WRs in 2019.
Why Lockett is going a few spots after D.K. Metcalf appears to be purely based on speculation that D.K. will break out this year. But why take the risk when Lockett Full of Sunshine has already broken out? Unsexy, yes. Want that 4-EYED Championship? Lock-ett up!
I hope all you#4EYEDfans are sufficiently bored! That wraps up our Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships series. Keep an eye out for more upcoming articles, such as our 4-EYED Observations and 4-EYES on IDP.
