Welcome back to Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships. Boring is the new black!
We continue to look at each team for one player who you’ll see in your fantasy football draft and think “No, no, no, no, no, ugh fine” and you’ll be laughing all your way to the playoffs. RBs who are rock solid. Wide receivers who are a warm safety blanket. Tight ends who try hard but aren’t try-hards. QBs who make you question why you ever thought of drafting one early. In with the old, out with the new.
May I present your NFC South’s Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships!
Atlanta Falcons – Todd Gurley (RB25, ADP63)
Gurley finds himself in a new home with Atlanta on a 1-year “prove it” deal. In 2019, he started 12 games and averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game, well under the 23.4 and 24.5 he averaged in 2017 and 2018. Hobbled by an arthritic knee, Gurley amassed only 857 rushing yards and 207 receiving yards in 2019. As a result, this former 1st round pick’s draft stock has plummeted to the late 5th round, the 25th RB off the board.
Gurley passed his physical last month. But the question remains: can he stay healthy? The good news is the injury concern is already baked into Gurley’s ADP. Almost as significant as his health is his new location. Atlanta has reliably produced great fantasy running backs. Over his 5 years as a starting RB, Devonta Freeman averaged 14.7 fantasy points per game. For 4 of those seasons, he shared snaps with Tevin Coleman. This is Gurley’s backfield to command. To control! (Shout out to you fellow Aladdin fans) Ito Smith is no Tevin Coleman. (Sorry any Ito truthers out there).
As #FANTASYINFRAMES lead NFL writer and owner Jorge Edwards wrote a couple of months ago, Gurley ran behind the league’s 6th worst run-blocking offensive line last year. This year, he’ll take snaps behind the 11th-best run-blocking line. Atlanta should also see the return of a few linemen drafted in 2019 but suffered season-ending injuries before . If you’re looking for a high-upside RB2/flex in the 5th round, Gurley is your guy.
Carolina Panthers – Curtis Samuel (WR56, ADP145)
Thanks, Curtis! Thumbs up to you too for being a “boring” player. Hard to imagine a 4th year WR that saw 91.0% of snaps in 2019 as “boring”. When you are overshadowed by CMC’s transcendent year and DJ Moore’s top-20 wide receiver, you’re boring. So I present you with Curtis Samuel’s 12th round ADP.
In both 2018 and 2019, Samuel averaged only 9 fantasy points per game. But last year he saw his targets spike to 106 (up from 65 in 2018). He also saw 15 redzone targets (18th among WRs) and 8 endzone targets (24th among WRs). With a ADP of WR56, Samuel is being drafted at his floor. As my colleague Aaron Pags opined last month, Teddy Bridgewater is a QB that looks for playmakers in space. CMC, DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel all fit the bill. They’re versatile athletes who can line up at various spots on the field and run all kids of routes.
Also, according to Playerprofiler.com, the Panthers were #2 in the league in pass plays per game. This makes sense when you remember (1) their defense stinks and continues to rebuild and (2) CMC is as much as rushing threat as a passing threat. Sure, Samuel won’t see CMC’s target share. Having CMC and DJ Moore on the field, however, gives Samuel plenty of opportunity to get open and snag enough catches to make his current ADP a steal. Instead of drafting unknown WRs like Henry Ruggs or back-up RBs like Nyheim Hines in the 12th round, think “Sam I Am”.
New Orleans Saints – Emmanuel Sanders (WR40, ADP97)
Lest you forget, Emmanuel Sanders is entering is 11th season in the league. It’s been a long time since Sanders donned that bumble bee black and gold jersey. He now finds his fourth home with the Saints. Sanders is obviously not going to be the #1 receiver with Michael Thomas on the field. He hasn’t reeled in 1,000 receiving yards since 2016. Last year, Sanders averaged a decent, but not world-beating, 9.3 fantasy points per game, which matches his career average. All of this pushes his ADP down to the late 8th/early 9th round.
Clearly Sanders is boring, but is he “good” boring or “bad” boring. After spending 4 years in Pittsburgh as a back-up receiver, Sanders average 117 targets per year as a starter in Denver and and San Francisco. And those targets had great potential value. According to Airyards.com, Sanders’s average depth of target (aDOT) was 11.80 yards with Pittsburgh, 12.00 with Denver and 11.20 with San Fran. Offensive coordinators have consistently used Sanders to run middle-to-deep routes. By comparison, Michael Thomas has a career aDOT of 8.40 yards.
Much like Gurley, the new landing spot for Sanders is IDEAL. Drew Brees has lacked a true WR2 across from Michael Thomas since Thomas’s rookie season with Brandin Cooks in 2016. That year: Thomas finished as the WR7 and Cooks finished as the WR9. If you give Drew Brees talented receivers, he rewards you with fantasy goodness. Would you rather have that upside with Sanders’s floor or take a shot on the boom/bust potential of a Mecole Hardiman or Mike Williams? Go with my man, Emmanuel.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ronald Jones (RB32, ADP83)
Is there a more exciting team this off season than Tampa Bay? Brady! Gronk! Chris Godwin and Mike Evans finishing as the WR2 and WR12 overall in 2019! Drafted talented rookie running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round! Then there’s poor Ronald Jones, sitting with and ADP in the late 7th/early 8th round.
It’s a deservedly low ADP for the “starting RB” in Tampa Bay. Jones averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game, placing him at RB35. His ability to slip tackles was lackluster, evading tackles on about 23% of touches (RB25). He saw only 41 targets in 2019 (RB34). All in all, Jones was mediocre in 2019.
So this is “bad” boring, right, Jeremy? Well, probably. This is about Tom Brady. Brady is going to want a RB that can pass block on the field, which usually disfavors rookies such as Vaughn. Jones did have notoriously bad pass blocking in 2019, resulting even in his benching at one point. However, as Pat Kerrane as Establish the Run points out, Jones was asked to block as much as 3.5 times other RBs with similar skill sets. Jameis Winston threw the football 626 times. That calls for a whole lot of pass blocking. If Jones can prove himself this offseason to Bruce Arians and Tom Brady that he’s improved his blocking, there’s every reason to believe he’ll be on the field with Brady at least to start the season. I’m not jonesing for Jones, but getting a likely starting running back in the 7th/8th round is worth the risk.
I hope all you#4EYEDfans are sufficiently bored! See you next time for the AFC West’s Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships!
