Today we are continuing our 4-EYED TEAM PREVIEW SERIES and we are covering the New England Patriots of the AFC East! This morning we’re talking offense and later today we’ll be releasing our IDP outlook, so stay tuned!
The New England Patriots felt the loss of Tom Brady as they finished 7-9 and third in the AFC East in 2020. The Patriots re-signed quarterback Cam Newton to another one-year deal and drafted Mac Jones out of Alabama with the 15th pick in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. The most surprising move for the Patriots, in my mind at least, came in the offseason when they signed both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry in the offseason. Not only did they sign them, but they signed them to large deals with Smith getting 4 years and $50 million and Henry getting 3 years and $37.5 million. Bill Belichick always seems to know more than the rest of us so we will see how the Patriots use these two tight ends this season.
So, who are the players from the Patriots offense that can help you win a fantasy championship in 2021?
Find out below in our 2021 Patriots 4-EYED Offensive Team Preview!
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton
Passing-wise, Newton had a rough 2020 as he threw only eight touchdown passes to 10 interceptions. He was still an efficient runner though as he had 12 rushing touchdowns on the season. There is a debate about whether or not you should blame Newton for his poor passing as his receiving corps last year was one of the worst in the NFL so he shouldn’t carry all the blame. I agree, mostly, but Newton completed 65.8% of his passes and is going to have to bounce back in that area if he is going to keep Mac Jones off the field. The QB16 in fantasy last year, if the Patriots come out of the gate slowly, don’t be surprised if Belichick turns to Jones, a pocket passer with a big arm. Even if that does happen though, look for Newton to still get those goal-line carries, but you wouldn’t be able to start him and hope for that. I’m utilizing Newton as a backup QB, and don’t trust him as my QB1 to start the season.
Mac Jones
Jones hasn’t lost a football game since the Iron Bowl in 2019 and led Alabama to its most recent national championship in 2020. In the championship game against Ohio State, Jones was electric completing 36 out of 45 passes for 464 yards and five touchdowns. This was about par for the course though as in 2020 Jones threw for 4500 yards, 41 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. Jones fell into the Patriots’ lap at 15 and the only surprise here is that the Patriots brought Newton back on a one-year deal and the two quarterbacks couldn’t have a bigger difference in play style. Newton is known for his prowess in the run game and Jones had 14 rushing yards in the entire 2020 season. The future of the Patriots is more of the Bill Belichick archetype and if Newton falters early, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Jones’ number isn’t called.
Running Backs
Damien Harris
If you are daring enough to trust a Patriots running back, you are probably going to be looking Harris’ way. The Patriots leading rusher in 2020, Harris played in 10 games, ran the ball 137 times for 691 yards, and scored two touchdowns. I have three major concerns with Harris. One is that he plays for the Patriots, two is that he only scored two touchdowns last year and his goal-line carries are going to be capped by Newton. And third is that he was hardly used in the run game because he only had seven targets. This won’t affect much in standard leagues, but in any type of PPR league, Harris drops in your rankings. Former Patriot Rex Burkhead is now in Houston so that could open up some targets, but I’m not as high on Harris as others because of those three things. Playing in 10 games last year, Harris was the RB50.
James White/Sony Michel/Rhamondre Stevenson
I chose to group these three together because honestly, we have seen that it is a dart throw for which one gets the usage every week behind Harris. White still seems to be the passing down back as he led the running backs with 57 targets last year. Michel was the back that filled in the most for Harris rushing as he had the third-most rushing attempts on the team last season behind Harris and Newton. Michel only had eight targets in the passing game though. Stevenson is the rookie out of Oklahoma that is very promising, but the Patriots appear to be starting him on the inactive list so I would say that his value at the moment is only in dynasty leagues, and he should remain on waivers in re-draft. Speaking of re-draft leagues, I think White and Michel should both garner late-round fliers in your drafts, but I personally am going to try my best to avoid this backfield.
Wide Receivers
Nelson Agholor
For receivers with at least 82 targets last season, Agholor led them all with 18.7 yards per reception and in average depth of target with 15.7 yards. Agholor turned into a deep ball threat for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2020, but now has a new home in New England with “noodle arm Newton”. Does this automatically cap his fantasy potential this year? Not necessarily. The Patriots’ surrounding cast of wide receivers are still “meh” at best and Agholor will just be competing with the tight ends for targets. Currently, his ADP has him as WR61 and I think that could be a steal for him.
Jakobi Meyers
Meyers was the Patriots’ leader in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in 2020 and he has a nice fantasy floor with the free-agent additions hopefully opening up the offense. Admittedly, I like his projections more with Jones under center because he has the arm to support the pass catchers in this offense, but Meyers does have the rapport with Newton. From Weeks 8-10 last season, Meyers was actually the WR7 in fantasy in half PPR scoring.
Others?
The Patriots also signed Kendrick Bourne in free agency and still have N’Keal Harry floating around their wide receiver room. At this point, especially with Newton expected to be under center, I can’t see this offense consistently supporting anyone else on this offense. The best-case scenario for these two is a surprise outing in the early parts of the season and you get them off of waivers.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry
The Patriots signed both the TE13 and the TE10 in fantasy from last season. Henry, the TE13 in 2020, came over from the Los Angeles Chargers. Even more surprising than the Patriots bringing in two tight ends is that they only targeted a tight end 31 times last season and those targets were split between three players. Yes, Newton is known to favor involving the tight end with Greg Olsen back when they were teammates in Carolina, but can this Patriots offense really support two tight ends? Henry is currently being drafted as TE12 and if he gets the usage that we have seen a Patriots tight end get as recently as 2018, Henry could return that value and be a TE1 for your lineups.
Jonnu Smith
Signing first with the Patriots from Tennessee, the Smith hype train looked unstoppable. Then the Patriots brought in Henry and now Smith is being taken as the TE14. Smith was the third most targeted receiver for the Titans last season and had 41 receptions for 448 yards and eight touchdowns over 15 games. The eight touchdowns are what really sticks out and one of the roles that the Patriots may use Smith in over Henry would be the redzone tight end role where he can be a big body that helps them get into the endzone. Then again, Henry is two inches taller so this situation truly is going to have to resolve itself as we get into the preseason as well as the regular season. If I was going to roster one of these two tight ends, I honestly think at this point that the move is to roster both.
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