We wrap up our AFC East 4-EYED PREVIEWS in Miami. What does this offense have in store after Tua’s rookie season?
The Dolphins had a mixed 2020 with rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa getting off to a slow start once he took over from Ryan Fitzpatrick. With Fitzpatrick moving to Washington, the path is now clear for Tua and the fate of the Dolphins’ other fantasy options rests on his young shoulders. There are fewer excuses this year as he enters his second season, another year removed from his hip injury, and the introduction of two new offensive weapons in Miami. Early reports out of camp sound fairly promising for Tua, with the hope he can demonstrate why so many wanted to #TankForTua not too long ago. The question is whether he will take enough of a step to support multiple pass-catching weapons.
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa
The fifth-overall pick had a largely underwhelming start to his NFL career. Tua played in ten games, completing 186 of his 290 attempts, throwing for 1,814 yards 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions. His yards per attempt reached just 6.3 last season, ranking tied for 29th amongst quarterbacks who had at least 250 dropbacks, according to PFF. Amid a chaotic season, the lack of a real pre-season, his recovery from a serious hip injury sustained in college, and a lack of weapons, we can forgive Tua’s slightly slow start. This year, however, he will need to show the Dolphins front office some tangible progress and the good news is that there have been some promising reports from training camp. Having said that Tua will likely be a streaming candidate at best unless he takes a significant step forward from last year.
Running Backs
Myles Gaskin
Myles Gaskin took over the starting job last year, seeing at least 15 touches in six games. Gaskin scored at least 10 half-PPR points in eight of his ten games last season, scoring an average of 12.3 points per game, ranking 14th in the league last season according to FantasyData. This was also partly due to his heavy involvement in the passing game earning at least four targets in all but one game. In total he saw 47 targets, turning that into 388 yards and two touchdowns across 41 receptions. This represented the seventh most receiving yards amongst running backs last season and 15th in the number of receptions. He now enters his third season with only Malcolm Brown brought in for the competition and remains the favorite to secure the lead-back role, although given he is a 7th round draft pick his role is far from certain. The real decision with Myles Gaskin is to consider the opportunity cost at his current draft price. Although he clearly has RB2 upside, the receivers being drafted around him, such as Mike Evans and DJ Moore have a much stronger role and present top-12 potential.
Wide Receivers
Will Fuller V
Fuller’s career year was curtailed by a PED suspension late last season, in which he had 879 receiving yards and eight touchdowns across 53 receptions (75 targets) in just 11 games. This represented an average of 12.4 points per game, just under 2 points per game better than his previous high. Fuller amassed at least 100 receiving yards and/or a touchdown in eight of his 11 games last season. He now moves to the Dolphins on a one-year $10.6m contract and should be the number one option for Tua. Fuller has unquestionable talent and he will be a high upside option once again in 2021, the issue has always been his ability to stay healthy. At his current draft cost as a low WR3/high WR4, could represent a tremendous value with top-24 upside if he can stay on the field. Given there were reports of injury issues early in training camp, his health is worth monitoring as we approach draft season.
Jaylen Waddle
Rookie Jaylen Waddle reunites with his former Alabama teammate Tua Tagovailoa, giving the quarterback another explosive weapon. After an impressive first two campaigns, Waddle’s 2020 season was cut short by an ankle injury. In each of his four games last season Waddle reached at least 120 yards, clearly demonstrating enough to be taken as the second receiver in this year’s draft. So what should we expect this year? Given rookie receivers often start slowly, don’t anticipate consistent fantasy output early on, especially given he is returning from a serious ankle injury and early camp reports suggest it may still be an issue. This is not to say Waddle can’t be good this year. As Brian Ford stated in his 4-EYED rookie profile, Waddle is an ‘explosive playmaker’ who will be able to command touches and his previous connection with Tua will certainly help. Expect him to provide some spike performances early on, with the possibility of becoming more viable further down the road.
DeVante Parker
We are now a couple of years removed from DeVante Parker’s breakout season when he became a league-winning waiver addition on the back of his 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns season. In 2020 his production fell to 793 yards and four touchdowns from 63 receptions (103 targets). Parker has now likely slipped down the depth chart, following the arrivals of both Fuller and Waddle. He is unlikely to be high on people’s list of targets later in the draft and, as with all the other Dolphins pass-catching options, he needs Tua to improve in order to provide a regular fantasy output. As long as Will Fuller is healthy, Parker will likely remain a flex-play at best.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki
Mike Gesicki enters his fourth season in the NFL, and a contract year, after an improved 2020 season. In 15 games last season the former second-round pick registered 703 yards and six receiving touchdowns from 53 receptions (85 targets). Gesicki had a solid end to the 2020 season, earning at least five targets in each game from week 10 onwards, finishing with at least ten half-PPR points in three of his last four games of the fantasy season, according to FantasyData. While Fuller is likely to be the number one target, Gesicki has more than enough talent to garner a significant target share in this offense. And given the injury struggles the other pass-catching options are facing, Gesicki could easily surpass last year’s production.
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