As we enter the fantasy playoffs, there are a number of rookie running backs who look to be on the verge of a late-season breakout.
Rookie running backs have had a rather tough year so far. The unusual off-season without preseason games and limited training appears to have had an effect on first-year backs. Outside of Jacksonville’s undrafted rookie sensation James Robinson, most of the running backs taken earlier in the 2020 draft haven’t quite lived up to expectations so far. Prior to his concussion and subsequent illness, Lions running back D’Andre Swift looked set for a promising end to the season.
There are, however, a growing number of rookies who have seen their usage slowly increase in recent weeks and could be on course for a breakout…just in time for the fantasy playoffs.
Jonathan Taylor
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor hasn’t quite lived up to the high expectations after Marlon Mack’s season was cut short in week 1 with a torn Achilles. After seeing 26 rushing attempts in week 2, Taylor saw his usage slowly decrease as the season progressed.
Taylor saw just 13 rushing attempts in weeks 9 and 10 combined, with Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines both seeing substantial workloads. For large parts of this season, Taylor has been seemed like a desperation play for many – but have the last two weeks been a change in fortune?
The former Wisconsin Badger has accumulated over 100 all-purpose yards in each of his last two games, against the Packers and Texans, seeing 35 rushing attempts and seven targets in total.
It is worth noting that these two performances have come against two of the weakest rushing defenses in the league. The Texans and Packers give up the second and third-most fantasy points to running backs respectively in half-PPR scoring, according to FantasyData. Fortunately, there are two equally enticing matchups awaiting Taylor-managers in the next two weeks. This Sunday the Colts face the Raiders who allow the fourth-most points to RBs before again facing the Texans in week 15.
JK Dobbins
JK Dobbins had a fairly slow start to proceedings, failing to see more than ten touches in a game for the first five games of the season. But, fortunately, things may be starting to change.
From week 8 onwards Dobbins has had at least ten touches in all but one game. The last couple of games in particular have shown his growing role in this offense. In the last two games he has played (he missed week 12 after the team COVID outbreak), Dobbins has logged a total of 26 carries, amassing over 70 yards and a rushing touchdown in each game.
The main issue for Dobbins has always been the crowded nature of this Ravens offense. With so many mouths to feed this backfield at the moment, combined with the obvious rushing ability of last year’s MVP Lamar Jackson, Dobbins’ upside is clearly limited somewhat. Jackson, for example, has had 13 rushes inside the 10-yard line, versus just six for Dobbins.
Dobbins’ ability, however, is certainly not in doubt. And although Lamar Jackson led the team in carries against the Cowboys with 13, Dobbins was the most used running back and looks likely to continue to see the most touches in the coming three weeks. This includes a particularly good matchup against the Jaguars in week 15 who allow the fifth-most points to RBs.
Cam Akers
The Rams’ second-round selection Cam Akers had a fairly promising start to the year. With teammate Darrell Henderson battling injury, Akers rushed 14 times, accounting for almost a 40% rushing share in week 1. Although Malcolm Brown took the majority of carries, it was reassuring to see a solid level of involvement, knowing his ability should lead to increased usage over the season.
The following weeks, however, were blighted by injury and between weeks 2 and 12, he failed to see more than ten carries. After some impressive runs, he has forced his way into the gameplan and was given 22 total touches in last Sunday’s game against the Cardinals.
His Thursday Night Football performance against the Patriots was a clear indication of the faith the coaching staff have in Akers. Although he came into the game without an injury designation, he had been on the report earlier in the week, but Akers rushed a staggering 29 times for 171 yards, adding a further 23 yards through the air on two receptions. The former Florida State back saw almost all the work on the ground, with Darrell Henderson only registering two rushes, while Robert Woods had one and Malcolm Brown did not have any.
His 29 attempts represented the sixth-most rushing attempts in the league so far this year, and just three behind the 32 rushes Dalvin Cook had in week 13 against Jacksonville – the most seen in 2020.
Up next week are the lowly New York Jets in a game LA should be very heavy favorites, which should give Akers ample opportunity to continue his good form. And in week 16, the final week of the fantasy season, the Rams will face the Seattle Seahawks, who have allowed the ninth most points to running backs so far this year, according to FantasyData.
