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4-EYED TEAM PREVIEW: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2021)

Nate Marcum

We are continuing our 4-EYED Team Preview Series with our final team from the AFC West, the Las Vegas Raiders. First, we’re talking offense, and later today we will be releasing our IDP outlook. Stay Tuned!

The first year for the Raiders in Las Vegas didn’t exactly go as planned. For starters, the brand new stadium wasn’t filled with 70,000 screaming fans. Due to Covid, the only screaming probably was coming from the Raiders’ sideline in the form of Jon Gruden. The season did start off decently well with wins against the Saints, Chiefs, and Browns. Unfortunately, the last 7 games were a dismal 2-7 resulting in an 8-8 season and another missed postseason.

The Raiders’ offense in 2020 was more than capable last year, finishing in the top 10 in both yards and points scored. The fact of the matter was the fact that the defense couldn’t keep them in games.

As we look ahead to the 2021 season, there are a few moving pieces; Nelson Agholor is gone after a surprisingly good season. Kenyan Drake was brought in to take the load off of Jacobs. Oddly enough they have decided that it is easier for opposing defenses to get to Derek Carr without an offensive line. I kid, I kid…

What isn’t a laughing matter are the 2021 offensive players on the Raiders that can help you win your fantasy championship.

So let’s take a look at who those players consist of below in our 2021 Raiders’ 4-EYED Offensive Team Preview!

Quarterback

Derek Carr

Derek Carr, by all accounts, had another solid season. Carr topped 4,000 yards for the 3rd straight season. In doing so, he also eclipsed the 20 TD mark for the second season while limiting his interceptions. Another positive takeaway was the increased running game, setting career highs in attempts, yardage, and TDs. He finished as the QB13, which was a great SuperFlex option, and a good streaming option. This was evidenced by his week 13 performance against the Jets, where he was the overall QB1.

Looking at 2021, what needs to go right for Carr to be an option for fantasy managers? For starters, he has to cut the fumbles down considerably. Last years’ 11 fumbles led the NFL. Maybe the key to unlocking his upside, which may I say is limited, is opening up the deep passing game. Carr is one of the best deep passers in the NFL (46%), but only attempted the 12th most in 2020. New OC Greg Olson has said they will increase explosive plays, but that remains to be seen.

Look for Carr to be drafted in the QB23 range, and be used as a solid streamable option at times.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs

I can’t think of a time that an RB has fallen out of favor in so many fantasy analysts’ thoughts so quickly. All Josh Jacobs did last year was put up back to back 1,000 yd+ seasons behind a less than stellar run-blocking line. Last years’ 1,056 yards were good for 8th in the NFL, and his 12 TD’s were the 4th most.

So why all the negative attention?

The Raiders went out in the offseason and brought in Kenyan Drake on a two-year deal. While some think that some workload relief will be good for his overall health (4 games missed in the first 2 years), others see it as a ceiling cap. The total rushing volume should be there for Jacobs, but gone is the idea of being even more heavily involved in the passing game. Last years’ 45 targets were the 24th among RB, but we have to see that being cut in half if not worse.

Finally, let’s talk about the rushing TDs. This is where it is going to be tricky to forecast. Drake and Jacobs finished tied for 1st for the most carries inside the 10, and they finished 3rd and 4th in carries inside the 5. All this tells me is that the hot hand or whoever’s series it is will get the goalline work. That scares me.

Wide Receiver

Henry Ruggs

The term “Bust” is being thrown at Henry Ruggs quite a bit in his young career. Only time will tell if it is warranted or not. After last years’ 26 rec/452yd/2TD rookie season, Ruggs dedicated his offseason to better prepare his body for the 2021 season. Adding 13 lbs’ provides Ruggs with the ability to absorb a little more underneath routes and helping with the run blocking that he felt was lacking.

Last years’ WR currently has an ADP of WR51 in 1/2 PPR. This consensus ADP tells me that the collective fantasy community sees a decent target share increase from 2020. Ruggs was never targeted more than 5 times in a game from Carr, which is going to have to change for the breakout to happen.

As I mentioned with Derek Carr, Greg Olson is looking to stretch the field with explosive plays, and nobody is more explosive than Ruggs. His yards per reception were top 5, the average target distance was 2nd, and he has an elite deep-ball passer.

A final word of caution. Pay attention to John Brown’s role and if Carr elects to look Ruggs’ way on the deep ball.

Bryan Edwards

Last years’ 81st pick in the NFL draft had fantasy managers salivating during OTA’s before the 2020 season even started. Edwards and Ruggs were the Week 1 starters, but it didn’t last long for Edwards when he injured his ankle in Week 3. Unfortunately for Edwards, he never could get back on track and never saw more than 2 targets in a game for the rest of the season.

I am a fan of second chances, and it appears that so are the Oakland Raiders. It appears that Edwards will get the first crack at the “X” receiver role with the Raiders. If he can take advantage of that opportunity, it would be a very good step in the right direction.

John Brown

John Brown is bringing some veteran experience and another deep threat to replace Nelson Agholor. After being released by the Bills, it didn’t take long for Brown to find an attractive landing spot. It is conceivable that he is the Raiders’ #1 WR at seasons’ end.

Coming off of knee and ankle issues, as well as COVID, 2020 wasn’t too kind to Brown, especially after his 2019 season. That season he had 72 rec/1060 yards/6 TD. (WR20). While a return to those numbers isn’t likely, he could carve out a niche role as a deep threat that Carr might trust!

Hunter Renfrow

Renfrow led the Raiders in receptions in 2020 and in 2019, and as with a few other WR’s, could lead them again in 2021. If there is a difficult thing to predict for the Raiders, it will be snap share and how the rotation will shake up. Renfrow is the true slot receiver for this team, and one of the more reliable options in the Vegas passing attack. The problem will be playing time, which could easily slip between his fingers.

Tight End

Darren Waller

Despite what any of the paragraphs had said, Darren Waller is the true #1, the “X” “Y” and “Z” receiver if he wants to be. Looking to prove that 2019 wasn’t a fluke for the late breakout tight end, he put a cherry on top of the 2020 season with 43 rec, 654 yds, and 4 TD’s over the final 5 weeks.

Definitely in the elite tier of TE with Travis Kelce, Waller is one of the safest picks in this years’ draft. Waller led all TEs in Targets (145) and Receptions (107), was 2nd in Yards (1,196), and 3rd in TD (9). Add in the fact that he was 2nd among all players in Red Zone receptions and you have stability and a built-in WR1 at TE.

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