Keith’s DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook: Week 9 (2024)

Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email November 2, 2024
11 minutes read

Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!

My Week 9 DFS Playbook included the best two plays from last week in Cade Otton and Cedric Tillman. The duo scored over 60 points on DraftKings despite costing a combined $6.8k. Let’s keep the boom plays coming in my DraftKings DFS Playbook for Week Nine!

Each week, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.

When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.

My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups.

Here is my DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 9 (2024)!

Dolphins @ Bills (BUF-6) O/U 48.5

MME: Josh Allen $7.7k (DK projected own 1.1%)
  • Allen’s scored 20.9 points or more in three straight games
  • His fantasy performance week 2 vs Miami was disappointing (9.8 pts)
  • Allen’s point totals in his previous four starts vs Mike McDaniel (36.5/25.1/26.7/35.9)
Cash: De’Von Achane $6.7k
  • Achane is his two full games with Tua as QB
  • 121 rushing yards, 13 receptions, 126 yards, 2 TDs, 49.7 points on DK
  • Achane versus Buffalo week 2 (game Tua left early with concussion) 167 total yards, TD, 29.5 points (highest DK point total of the year)
  • The Bills allow the most receptions per game to RBs in the NFL (6.38)
  • They also allow the most receiving yards to RBs (54.25 yards)

Broncos @ Ravens (BAL-8.5) O/U 46.5

MME Troy Franklin $4.0k (DK projected own% unavailable)
  • If like me, you expect the Ravens to roll in this game following their upset loss to Cleveland last week
  • Denver will be down and throwing often in this game
  • The Ravens secondary is the weakness of this Ravens team allowing 13 passing touchdowns in their last four games
  • Franklin is the Broncos best big play option with an ADOT of 13.1
  • Franklin’s target rate 24.2% is significant with him running 38 routes the last two weeks in games dominated by the Broncos

Cash: Lamar Jackson $8.0k

  • Lamar was having a great fantasy season through four games averaging 24.27 ppg with 7 total TDs
  • However, Lamar’s been even better in his last four games averaging 30.6 ppg with 13 total TDs
  • QBs are having success with their legs this season, the trio of Geno Smith, Gardner Minshew, and Spencer Rattler combined for 86 rushing yards and a TD, each of them rushed for 22 yards or more vs Denver
  • Lamar is averaging 8.13 ppg in rushing alone this season on DK 

Chargers @ Browns (CLE Even) O/U 41.5

MME: Justin Herbert $5.3k (DK projected own% 1.5%)
  • Herbert is 9th in points per game on DK at the QB position over the last three weeks, he’s the 22nd most expensive QB on the DK main slate Sunday
  • Herbert averaged 144 yards per game passing his first four games, he’s averaging 288 in his three games since the team’s bye
  • Herbert was banged up earlier this season but appears to be healthy post bye
  • His 57 rushing yards the last two weeks speaks to that point, he had rushed for 26 yards combined in his five starts
  • The Browns will be without their best CB, LB, and they’ve allowed four different QBs to rush for 40+ yards this season against them 

Cash: Ladd McConkey $5.6k

  • Did I mention the Browns will be without their best CB this week?
  • Ladd’s seen six or more targets in five straight games
  • Caught four or more receptions in four straight games
  • Browns run Man Defense at one of the higher rates in the NFL
  • Ladd is already one of the best WRs in the NFL vs man defense, he’s 5th in target rate (36.4%) and 9th in fantasy points per target (2.07 per)

Saints @ Panthers (NO-7) O/U 43.5

MME: Taysom Hill $3.8k (DK projected own% 0.2%)
  • Hill returned to action for the first time in a few weeks since his injury in the first half vs the Falcons
  • He saw four targets, caught two passes, and rushed for 20 yards on four carries in his first action since his injury
  • He scored two rushing touchdowns before exited in the first half of that game vs the Falcons
  • The Panthers run defense is awful, allowing the second most rushing yards this season and the most rushing touchdowns
  • I would be shocked if Hill doesn’t score a rushing TD in the red zone with Derek Carr set to return as the Saints QB
Cash: Jalen Coker $3.6k
  • Coker is the new Cedric Tillman
  • Like my reasoning for being all in on Tillman last week, I’m in on Coker this week
  • He will see more volume without Diontae Johnson who was traded to the Ravens
  • Like Tillman the week before he saw a season high in snaps, targets, and fantasy points with Johnson out due to injury last week
  • Coker even before the Johnson trade was trending in the right direction over his last four games with 14 targets, 12 receptions, 186 yards, and a TD
  • The Saints rank 5th in most yards allowed to WRs and 10 in yards per reception to WRs

Raiders @ Bengals (CIN-7) O/U 46.5

MME: Chase Brown $5.9k (DK projected own% 7.7%) 
  • Zack Moss is listed as doubtful for this game
  • Meaning Brown could see his largest workload of the season
  • Brown over his last five has seen at least 12 touches (15 per), scored an average of 14.54 ppg on DK, with five touchdowns in that span
  • Brown’s scored 11.4 points or more on DK in three of his last four despite playing some of the better run defenses in the NFL
  • His opponent this week (The Raiders) are one of six teams who’ve allowed 1k yards or more rushing, 10+ rushing TDs, and allowing 4.5 yards or more per carry on the ground

Commanders @ Giants (WSH-4) O/U 44.5

MME: Tyrone Tracy 5.5k (DK projected own% unavailable)
  • Tracy has scored 17 points or more on DraftKings in three of his last four
  • With 347 rushing yards, 12 receptions for 72 yards, and two touchdowns in that span
  • Despite Devin Singletary being 100% Tracy still saw 60% of the snaps last week and saw 21 touches to Singletary’s four
  • Among RBs Tracy ranks top 10 in yards per touch and production premium
Cash: Jayden Daniels $7.5k
  • In case you haven’t noticed by my plays, I’m recommending Herbert, a QB from the Dallas/Atlanta game, and nothing but stud QBs with immense rushing upside this week
  • Despite being banged up and facing a tough Bears defense Daniels still scored 25.2 points on DK
  • His full games played this season he’s averaging 23.08 ppg on DK
  • Daniels in his first matchup with Giants scored 0 TDs, something I highly doubt happens again with Washington’s offense being one of the most efficient in the NFL

Cowboys @ Falcons (ATL-3.5) O/U 51.5

MME Dak Prescott $6.3k (DK projected own% 0.1%)
  • Dak coming off consecutive disappointing starts where he scored a combined 20/8 points will ensure he’s low-owned this week
  • However, he’s playing a Falcons defense that has one of the worst pass rushes through eight weeks this century, yes you read that right
  • The Falcons have six sacks thru eight games, the teams Dallas has played this season have an average of 22.5 sacks this season, none with less than 18, three times the amount of sacks the Falcons have this season
  • Dak proved in his matchup with Pittsburgh he could excel when given time
  • The Steelers pass rush was hurt by a litany of injuries for that game and Dak threw for 352 yards with two scores, while scoring 22.4 points on DK

Cash: Bijan Robinson $7.4k

  • I don’t hate Bijan in MME either with him projected be the 10th most owned RB on the DK main slate this week
  • Dallas allows 150 rushing yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry
  • Bijan’s being utilized at high volume finally in this Falcons offense
  • Over his last three games he’s averaging 3.6 more carries per game and averaging 25.1 ppg on DK during that span (23.6 pts or more in all three)
  • Bijan’s accounted for 47% of his rushing yards and 38% of his receiving yards in his last three games, compared to the previous five
  • He’s also scored three of four TDs this season in his last three games 

Patriots @ Titans (TEN-3.5) O/U 37.5

MME: Juluis Chestnut $4.0k (DK projected own% 0.0%)
  • Tyjae Spears has been ruled out for this game
  • Tony Pollard didn’t practice all week dealing with a foot injury
  • If Pollard is ruled out this is a smash play in MME and a consideration for cash
  • Chestnut is averaging 4.7 yards per carry over his last two games on 10 carries
  • NE ranks 30th vs RBs on DK
Cash: I can’t in good conscious recommend any player from this game in Cash

Bears @ Cardinals (ARI-2) O/U 44.5

MME and Cash: D’Andre Swift $6.4k (DK projected own% 7.3%)
  • I don’t hate this play in MME either with Swift projected to be the 12th most owned RB this week
  • Swift started this season being the worst running backs in the league rushing for 68 yards on 37 carries (1.8 YPC)
  • In his four games since he’s rushed for 386 yards at 5.36 YPC
  • Scoring 23.1 ppg on DK in that span despite only catching 6 passes
  • The Cardinals for the season allow 140 yards per game at 4.6 yards per carry with ten touchdowns

Jaguars @ Eagles (PHI-7.5) O/U 45.5

MME: Parker Wahington $3.6k (DK projected own% unavailable)
  • Kirk has been ruled out for this game, both Thomas and Davis are questionable missing multiple practices this week
  • Potentially leaving a huge opportunity for Washington
  • He played a season high 73% of snaps last week and ran routes on 78% of routes in a game Kirk exited early
  • Last year in his three games with 60% or more snaps he saw 10 targets, caught 99 yards worth of passes, and scored two TDs
Cash: Jalen Hurts $7.8k 
  • Hurts is quietly having another stellar fantasy season
  • 22.5 ppg on DK
  • He’s been even better when AJ Brown plays averaging 24.8 ppg in the four games they’ve played together
  • No surprise the Eagles offense as a whole is much better when Brown plays
  • The team averages 29.75 ppg in games Brown plays, compared to 17.3 when he doesn’t
  • This week he faces a Jags team that ranks 31st vs QBs on DK, the trio of Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, and Josh Allen rushed for 118 yards vs the Jags, Joe Flacco rushed for 22 yards vs them
  • The Jags run man defense at one of the highest rates in the NFL, AJ Brown has been out of this world vs man defense this season, love stacking Hurts with him, or playing Brown in cash lineups naked if you want to play another QB

Lions @ Packers (DET-2.5) O/U 47.5

MME: Sam LaPorta $4.6k (DK projected own% 1.1%)
  • LaPorta is rounding into form after a terrible start to his season with double digit points in two of his last three games
  • My favorite part about Laporta this week is the absence again of Jameson Williams who’s serving the second game of his two-game suspension
  • Without Williams last week LaPorta saw a season high in targets, receptions, red zone targets, and fantasy points on DK
  • His opponent this week GB ranks 24th on DK vs TEs
  • But it’s worst than that, Colby Parkinson caught 7 passes for 52 yards, Trey McBride caught 8 passes for 90 yards, Evan Engram caught four passes for 40 yards and a score last week
  • Green Bay started the season facing some of the easiest TE rosters in the NFL like Minnesota, Indy, and Tennessee
Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs $7.6k
  • In just three weeks Hunt went from seeing 14 carries, while playing 40% of the Chiefs offensive snaps
  • To seeing 52 touches over the last two games
  • Including 11 red zone targets
  • Hunt scored 41 points in that span (18.5 or more in each) thanks to 200 rushing yards and three TDs

Rams @ Seahawks (LAR-1) O/U 48.5

MME: JSN $6.2k (DK projected own% 3.4%)
  • I expect the Seahawks to be down in this game
  • No Metcalf, not Noah Fant
  • Safe to assume a huge workload/target volume from Walker, Lockett, and JSN on the Seahawks
  •  I don’t love playing any Seahawks in this game, but if I am recommending one it would be JSN

 

Cash: Kyren Williams $8.0k
  • 19 carries or more in five straight with 28 red zone touches in that span and 8 TDs
  • Seattle will be without DK Metcalf and Noah Fant
  • Making it more likely this is a lower scoring game, and the Rams lean heavily on the run
  • Seattle ranks 27th on DK vs RBs
  • Seattle’s allowed over their last five games 688 rushing yards and 6 TDs to opposing RBs

Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9 pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays.

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Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email November 2, 2024
11 minutes read
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