Keith’s DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook: Week 8 (2024)

Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email October 26, 2024
11 minutes read
Keith's DK DFS Playbook Week 8 (2024) | Fantasy In Frames

Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!

My Week 7 DFS Playbook was loaded with great plays in all price ranges. My plays from this article last week included expensive players who had a great week in Joe Mixon (RB3), Justin Jefferson (WR3), A.J. Brown (WR4) and bargain priced players who were top at their position in David Njoku (TE1), Kareem Hunt (RB7), and Jonnu Smith (TE2). Let’s keep the boom plays coming in my DraftKings DFS Playbook for Week Ocho!

Each week, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.

When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.

My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups.

Here is my DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 8 aka “The Ocho” (2024)!

Jets @ Patriots (NYJ-7) O/U 40.5

MME: Davante Adams $7.1k (DK projected own 3.8%)
  • Adams technically disappointed in his first game with Rodgers and the Jets
  • However, he was covered by one of the best CBs in football for a majority of it (Joey Porter Jr.)
  • He still saw 9 targets despite just joining the team earlier in the week
  • Adams could see 12-15 targets easily this week and is currently projected to be 21st in ownership at WR
Cash: Breece Hall $7.3k
  • Hall’s numbers in the two games since the Jets fired Robert Saleh
  • 30 rush attempts for 151 rushing yards and a TD
  • 11 receptions for 159 yards
  • 54 points scored on DraftKings in that span (24.9 or more in both)
  • He’s facing a Patriots run defense who’s been killed by opposing RBs over the last month
  • RBS vs NE in their last 4 (649 yards with 7 rushing TDs at 5.54 yards per carry)
  • It was so bad in their last game versus Jacksonville that the Jags ran it on 19 consecutive offensive plays

Eagles @ Bengals (CIN-2.5) O/U 47.5

MME and Cash: A.J. Brown $8.2k (DK projected own% 8.4%)
  • Projected ownership is still under 10%?!
  • Brown has finished WR7 or better for the week in all three games played this season
  • 19.9 points or more scored in each, averaging 22.1 ppg (highest among WRs)
  • The Bengals run man defense at one of the highest rates in the NFL
  • Brown vs man (target rate 39.4%) (fantasy pts per target 4.10)

Packers @ Jaguars (GB-4) O/U 49.5

MME:  Romeo Doubs $5.7k (DK projected own% 0.8%)
  • Doubs was suspended week 5 and has earned the Packers trust back in the two games since
  • His last two games he’s scored 37.3 points on DraftKings (17.4 points or more in both)
  • Doubs has one of the best WR/CB matchups on this slate versus Tyson Campbell
  • The Jags play man defense at one of the higher rates in the NFL
  • Doubs averages 2.37 fantasy points per target versus man (1.85 versus zone)

Cash: Brian Thomas Jr. $6.4k

  • Thomas Jr. is having a remarkable rookie season despite not seeing huge volume (among WRs 24th in targets, 37th in target share, and 32nd in target rate)
  • Despite the lack of volume he ranks top-10 among WRs in
  • Receiving Yards
  • YAC
  • YPRR
  • TDs
  • Fantasy Points per target and route run
  • Route win rate
  • Green Bay runs single high 55.3% of the time on defense
  • Thomas Jr. vs single high, 23.4 target share, 3.12 yards per route run, 26.3% first-read share

Titans @ Lions (DET-11) O/U 44.5

MME: Tim Patrick $3.5k (DK projected own% 3.1%)
  • Jameson Williams is suspended for the next two Lions games
  • Leaving a potential huge opportunity for deep threat Tim Patrick
  • He’s seen 5 targets the last two weeks on just 29 routes run (17% target rate)
  • Patrick turned those targets into 93 yards and 14.3 fantasy points
  • Titans star CB Sneed is questionable
MMEx2: Sam Laporta $4.8k (DK projected own% 1.9%)
  • I don’t like any Lions or Titans plays for cash this week
  • However, Laporta is worth a long look in MME with Patrick
  • The reasoning is simple
  • Williams is out the next two weeks
  • Laporta’s averages in the 5 games in his career without Williams playing
  • 6.8 targets, 5.4 receptions, 54.2 ypg, .4 TDs per, 13.22 ppg on DK

Falcons @ Buccaneers (ATL-2.5) O/U 45.5

MME: Cade Otton $3.5k (DK projected own% 2.5%) 
  • There’s been a ton of discussion about what Bucs WR will benefit in the interim with Godwin done for the year and Evans out for at least a few weeks
  • IMO you should be cautious of playing any Bucs WR until we see a full game without Godwin and Evans
  • However, it appears less is being made of Cade Otton (apparent by his 2.5% projected ownership on DK this week) who is the Bucs pass catcher I feel most confident who will see significantly more volume than normal
  • Otton was already seeing a significant amount of volume with Godwin and Evans
  • Otton’s seen 37 targets in his last five games
  • He’s currently top 5 among TEs in targets, receptions, red zone targets, snap share, routes run and participation, and he’s only $3.5k on DK??
  • Seems like an extreme value
Cash: Drake London $7.2k  
  • London is one of the safest plays in cash right now for DFS
  • 8+ targets in five straight games, 6+ receptions in six straight games
  • 17.4 points or more and a receiving TD in 5 of his last 6 games
  • London is top 5 among WRs in targets, red zone targets, receptions, EPA, TDs scored and expected fantasy points per game (Chase and Brown are over $1.2k more on DK and both have scored less than 14 points in a game in the last two weeks)

Cardinals @ Dolphins (MIA-4) O/U 46.5

MME: James Conner 6.5k (DK projected own% 2.7%)
  • 100 total yards or more in 4 of his last 6 games
  • After seeing 7 targets in his first four games, he’s seen 12 in his last three games
  • Miami allows 4.6 ypc and 130 yards per game on the ground
  • The Dolphins have given up 9 rushing TDs in just six games and they’ve allowed six rush plays of 20+ yards and two rush plays of 40+ yards (one of nine teams to allow multiple 40+ rushes and the only team to do so who’s only played six games)
  • Among RBs Conner is 1st in evading tackles and juke rate
Cash: Tyreek Hill $7.0k and De’Von Achane $6.2k
  • Tyreek Hill has scored 25 points or more in 10 of his last 18 regular season games that Tua starts/plays (double digit points in all 18)
  • Achane in the seven games started by Tua where he has 10+ rush attempts is averaging 26.8 points per game (that average would rank as the 10th best fantasy season of all-time by a RB)
  • I like Achane slightly more than Hill only because I could see Miami leaning heavily on the run if they get up early (in order to protect Tua)
  • But I’m playing both together in several cash game lineups this week

Browns @ Ravens (BAL-8.5) O/U 44.5

MME Cedric Tillman $3.3k (DK projected own% 4.2%)
  • Huge upgrade to the Browns passing game with Jameis starting at QB
  • Last week was the first game this season Tillman played more than 40% of the Browns offensive snaps or ran routes on Browns passing plays (1st game post Browns Amari Cooper trade)
  • He saw 12 targets (7 more than previous season total), caught 8 passes (5 more than previous season total), for 81 yards (72 more than previous season total), and saw 127 air yards (113 more than previous season total)
  • I like this play in cash as well

Cash: David Njoku $5.1k (DK projected own% 4.2)

  • This might be my favorite play this week in cash
  • IMO the safest play in cash as well
  • Njoku saw 14 targets in the first game without Amari Cooper
  • Jameis is a huge upgrade at QB
  • Njoku was a monster in fantasy with Flacco last year
  • I like this play in MME as well if he’s going to be less than 5% owned

Colts @ Texans (HOU-5) O/U 45.5

MME: Dalton Schultz $4.1k (DK projected own% 2.2%)
  • Maybe the last week Schultz is top-3 in Texans passing game target pecking order
  • Schultz has seen 14 targets in the two and half games that Nico Collins has missed
  • The Colts are one of the worst defenses in the NFL vs TEs
  • Last week Jonnu Smith caught 9 passes for 96 yards and TD with Snoop Huntley
Cash: Joe Mixon $7.7k
  • After touting Mixon for cash and MME the last two weeks it appears the rest of DFS players have finally realized (proj own% 17.7%) Mixon is having an incredible season
  • Mixon’s rushed for 100 yards in every full game this season
  • He’s scored a TD in every full game this season
  • He’s scored 29.4 points or more in every full game this season

Saints @ Chargers (LAC-7) O/U 41.5

MME: Kimani Vidal $5.3k (DK projected own% unavailable)
  • This play is an MME shot in the dark  
  • In this scenario you probably play both Dobbins and Vidal
  • Because the Saints run defense is having issues
  • Saints last 3 games vs run
  • They allowed 124 rushing yards w/ a TD and 39 receiving yards to KC RBs
  • They allowed 217 rushing yards w/ 2 TDs and 80 receiving yards to TB RBs
  • They allowed 152 rushing yards w/ 2 TDs and 23 receiving yards to Den RBs

 

Cash: J.K. Dobbins $6.9k
  • Again the Saints run defense is awful at the moment
  • Dobbins vs defenses ranked 25th or worse on DK this season (2 games)
  • 27 carries for 266 yards and 2 TDs
  • Saints are ranked 28th on DK vs RBs

Panthers @ Broncos (DEN-10.5) O/U 40.5

MME: Bo Nix $5.3k (DK projected own% unavailable)
  • Bo Nix has scored 19.5 points or more on DraftKings in three of his last five games
  • Patrick Mahomes hasn’t accomplished that feat once since Week 12 last season
  • Nix is averaging over six points per game in rushing alone
  • He’s seeing 6.7 rush attempts per game with 1.4 of them coming in the red zone
Cash: Javante Williams $6.0k 
  • Only seven teams have allowed more yards per attempt than the Panthers run defense
  • Carolina allows more than four receptions per game to RBs
  • Williams over his last five games has seen 27 targets, 22 receptions, and 164 receiving yards in the passing game

Chiefs @ Raiders (KC-9.5) O/U 41.5

MME: Deandre Hopkins $4.9k (DK projected own% 0.3%)
  • Last week I recommended Amari Cooper in the exact same situation in his first start for the Bills
  • Cooper was going from catching passes from Deshaun Watson to catching them from Josh Allen (Cooper caught a TD while scoring 16.8 points on DK)
  • Hopkins is going from Will Levis to Patrick Mahomes
  • Plus, the Chiefs will be without Juju Smith Schuster for this game
Cash: Kareem Hunt $6.3k
  • In just three weeks Hunt went from seeing 14 carries, while playing 40% of the Chiefs offensive snaps
  • To seeing 52 touches over the last two games
  • Including 11 red zone targets
  • Hunt scored 41 points in that span (18.5 or more in each) thanks to 200 rushing yards and three TDs

Bills @ Seahawks (BUF-3) O/U 45.5

MME: Noah Fant $3.7k (DK projected own% 1.7%)
  • Fant has scored double digit points on DK in consecutive games
  • Seeing 10 targets in that span and turning them into 10 catches for 128 yards
  • Fant should see more volume with DK Metcalf ruled out for this game

 

Cash: Kenneth Walker $7.8k
  • The Bills are one of the five teams in the NFL allowing 5 yards or more per carry on the ground
  • Walker has been incredible this season in fantasy
  • He’s scored 20.9 points or more in four of five games (14.6 his lowest point total this season)
  • Last week versus a defense who plays RBs well and with an illness he scored 23.3 points
  • A big reason for his success in fantasy this season is his per game averages in the passing game (4.6 receptions per, 32 receiving yards, and a TD)
  • That’s 9 ppg in the passing game alone

Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9 pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays.

Tags
Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email October 26, 2024
11 minutes read

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button