Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 7 (2024)

Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email October 19, 2024
8 minutes read
Keith's DK DFS Playbook Week 7 (2024) | Fantasy In Frames

Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!

Last week my plays from this article included Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Brock Bowers, David Montgomery, and A.J. Brown. Here are my favorite Cash and MME plays from my DraftKings DFS Playbook!

Each week, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.

When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.

My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups.

Here is my DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 6 (2024)!

Titans @ Bills (BUF-8.5) O/U 40.5 

MME: Amari Cooper $5.8k (DK projected own 0.8%)
  • This is a multi-entry play only IMO
  • Yes, Cooper adds a great downfield weapon to the Bills passing attack, but will Joe Brady force him the ball?
  • Cooper has the most unrealized air yards of any WR this season
Cash: Tony Pollard $6.3k
  • Pollard scored 17.8 pts or more on DK the last two weeks/15.2 pts or more 4/5
  • Buffalo ranks 31st against RBs on DK
  • Tyjae Spears is out; his absence is why I’m high on Pollard no matter what game script happens
  • Pollard with Spears playing is 6th in target shares among RBs and 10th in route participation

Texans @ Packers (GB-2.5) O/U 48.5

MME and Cash: Joe Mixon $7.2k (DK projected own% 7.6%)
  • Mixon’s played two full games this season and he’s scored 29.8 pts or more in both of them
  • He’s doing this despite seeing the 2nd most average defenders in the box and facing the 5th most stacked front defensive looks
  • GB’s 19th vs RBs on DK but good RBs have killed them this season
  • Saquon 151 total yards 3 TDs
  • JT 131 total yard on 14 touches
  • Kyren Williams 105 yards and a TD
  • Until Mixon has a bad full game with Houston, his price and/or ownership go up, I’m going to keep using him in a lot of DK lineups  

Eagles @ Giants (PHI-3) O/U 42.5 

MME and Cash:  A.J. Brown $8.0k (DK projected own% 7%)
  • Exactly the same situation with Brown that I discussed above with Mixon
  • He’s scored 25.9 pts or more in both games this season
  • Both games he eclipsed 100 yards receiving and scored a TD while seeing 19 targets
  • The Giants run man enough that Brown could do some serious damage
  • This season vs man Brown is seeing a 47.4% target rate and scoring 3.99 fantasy pts per target
  • How is he projected to be this low owned again?

Lions @ Vikings (MIN-1) O/U 50.5 

MME: Jameson Williams $6.0k (DK projected own% 1.1%)
  • Despite seeing only 6 targets the last two games Williams had 156 rec yards and scored two touchdowns
  • Scoring 33.7 pts on DraftKings in the process
  • This week he faces a Vikings team that allows the least yards per attempt to opposing running backs and blitzes 41% of the time.
  • The Lions will be forced to throw and when Goff has been blitzed this season Williams has a higher target rate than ASB (Williams 27.5%/ASB 22.5%)
  • Williams is 2k cheaper on DK
Cash: Justin Jefferson $8.5k 
  • Jefferson is the most expensive WR on the slate for good reason
  • Darnold much better vs man defense than zone defense
  • Lions run man defense at the 6th highest rate in NFL
  • Jefferson vs man 6 YPRR, 4 fantasy pts per route run

Seahawks @ Falcons (ATL-3) O/U 51.5 

MME: Jaxon Smith-Njigba $5.9k (DK projected own% 7.3%) 
  • JSN Since Week 2: 46 targets, 32 receptions, 14 ppg on DK
  • Falcons run zone at one of the highest rates in the NFL
  • JSN win rate more than doubles versus zone compared to man and so does his fantasy pts per target
Cash: Geno Smith $5.8k  
  • For the record I like a lot of players from this game
  • I think this could be one of the highest scoring games on the slate
  • But Geno is my favorite for cash despite being projected to be the most owned QB on DK this week
  • He’s scored 17.5 pts or more in 5/6 games, 20.9 or more in 3/6
  • The Falcons can’t pressure or sack the QB and as I mentioned above play a ton of zone
  • Geno with a clean pocket has the 2nd highest comp %, is the 6th highest graded QB by PFF, and his numbers are better across the board versus zone than compared to man

Bengals @ Browns (CIN-5.5) O/U 41.5 

MME: Nick Chubb 6.0k (DK projected own% 0.4%)
  • Full discretion this is a homer pick, I’m a huge UGA and Chubb fan
  • However, the Bengals are not good against the run
  • The Browns are without Jerome Ford
  • Nick Chubb rushed for 200 yards and 3 TDs vs UNC in his first game back after a more horrific leg injury in college  
Cash: David Njoku $4.2k 
  • I know Njoku isn’t playing with Joe Flacco but with Cooper gone his volume will be insane moving forward in this Browns passing game
  • He played 70% of snaps last week for the first time this season
  • Over his last 13 games that occurred he’s averaging over 9 targets per game with 16 RZ targets

Dolphins @ Colts (IND-3) O/U 43.5 

MME Jonnu Smith $3.4k (DK projected own% 1.4%)
  • 7th among TEs in target rate
  • Week 5 he ran 19 routes and saw 8 targets
  • Colts have allowed 25 receptions for 217 yards with 2 TDs to TEs over their last four games

Cash: Tyler Goodson $5.4k

  • He will be involved in the run game with JT out again and Trey Sermon playing, but nicked up
  • Dolphins are right with the Panthers as the worst run defense in the league
  • 31st DVOA vs run
  • Miami’s last 3 games they allowed on the ground 359 yards and 5 TDs to Rhomandre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, and Zach Charbonnet

Panthers @ Commanders (Wash-9.5) O/U 51.5

MME: Jalen Coker $3.0k and Dontayvion Sanders 2.9k 
  • The Commanders are favored by nearly 10 points, and it looks like the Panthers will be without target hog Diontae Johnson
  • Coker has a top-10 WR/CB matchup this week per PFF
  • Sanders has seen 12 targets over the last two games while running routes on 71% of Panthers passing plays
Cash: Jayden Daniels $7.6k
  • Daniels feels like the only sure thing QB from DK’s main slate this week due to his high floor with his rushing ability, and consistency with 20.7 pts or more in 5/6 on DK
  • Carolina’s D is 7th in passing yards allowed and given up the 3rd most passing TDs
  • What I like the most about this play is Carolina can’t pressure the QB
  • They only have 6 sacks this season
  • The two teams Daniels faced this season with the least sacks he scored 25 and 28.1 pts against them (Arizona 11, Cincinatti 8)

Raiders @ Rams (DET-7) O/U 43.5

MME: Alexander Mattison $5.5k (DK projected own% 1.9%)
  • I know this feels a little gross but Mattison’s seen 36 touches over his last two games
  • The Rams are 24th on DK having already allowed 6 rushing TDs in just five games
  • Mattison when he plays 58% of the Raiders snaps or more (3 games) he’s caught 11 passes, on 14 targets, for 165 yards and a score
  • He’s averaging 14.6 ppg in those games with 16.2 pts scored or more in 2/3 

 

Cash: Kyren Williams $8.1k
  • My most owned guy in cash games this week
  • The Raiders allow 140 rushing yards per game, the 7th most rushing touchdowns, and they’re 1/6 NFL teams allowing over 5 yards per rush attemtpt
  • Williams over his last 3 games has five scores and is averaging 23.8 ppg on DK
  • He’s seen a league leading 32 RZ touches this season

Chiefs @ 49ers (SF-2) O/U 46.5 

MME: Xavier Worthy $6.4k (DK projected own% unavailable)
  • He’s seen 10 targets in the last two games, a season high 6 last week in the first full game without Rashee Rice
  • The Niners have issues with WRs and giving up big passing plays in general
  • The 49ers have allowed four passing plays or 50+ yards this season, including Justin Jefferson’s 97 yard TD Week 2
  • Worthy is the most likely Chiefs player to make a big play of that length  
Cash: Kareem Hunt $6.0k 
  • I like George Kittle at this exact price as well
  • But Hunt is the featured back now in a Mahomes led offense (good place to be)
  • He’s already 9th in opportunity share on a team averaging 30 rushing plays per game
  • His snap count in his second week with the Chiefs went up to 65.4% from 47.5% the week before
  • Hunt saw four RZ carries last week with 2 coming on the goal line  

Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9 pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays.

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Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email October 19, 2024
8 minutes read
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