Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!
Last week my DFS Playbook on Fantasy in Frames included Andy Dalton, Diontae Johnson, and Jalen Nailor. Let’s keep the good plays coming for Week 4!
Each week, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.
When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.
My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups.
Here is my DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 4 (2024)!
Broncos @ Jets (NYJ-7.5) Total 38.5
The Jets allow 0.286 fantasy points per attempt (9th)
— Sharp Football Analysis (@SharpFBAnalysis) September 27, 2024
New York is 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate (44.7%)
Jets lead the NFL with 14.4% sack rate
Denver's Bo Nix has a 36.1 rating when pressured (28th), throwing 4.5 yards per pass attempthttps://t.co/HOq6Q3Ni5v
MME: Braelon Allen $5.4k (DK ownership Unknown)
- Allen wasn’t able to match his fantasy production from week two last week
- However, his usage numbers went up with more rush attempts and receptions
- Over his last two games, 7 targets in the passing game, 18 rush attempts
- This game could get out of hand early, earning Allen more touches than normal in the 2nd half
Cash: Tyler Conklin $3.6k (1.6% DK projected ownership)
- Conklin broke out last week with six targets, five receptions for 93 yards
- His ADOT for that game was over 13 yards
- Denver is 22nd vs. TEs on DK
- I’m assuming Surtain shadows Garrett Wilson, meaning the Jets’ secondary passing options will be needed in the passing more than normal.
Vikings @ Packers (GB-2.5) Total 43.5
Aaron Jones wrote about being a Packer in the Player's Tribune today…
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) September 25, 2024
Highly recommend reading the whole thing. The guy is special. https://t.co/IIh6MHZF4i pic.twitter.com/9yeuoKyL3n
MME: Vikings D $2.9K
- The Vikings D under Brian Flores might be the best in the NFL
- Playing the 49ers and Texans, Minnesota allowed only 24 points combined, with 11 sacks and 4 forced TOs
- 5 sacks or more with at least 2 forced TOs every game this season
- Playing a Packers offense that either will be led by Malik Willis or a hobbled Jordan Love
Cash: Aaron Jones $6.4K (10% DK ownership projection)
- who doesn’t love a good revenge story?
- Aaron Jones enters this week with 242 rushing yards at 5.42 ypc and a TD on the season
- He’s involved in the Vikings passing game as well with 12 receptions for 97 yards and TD
- Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley had huge DFS days against the Packers Run D
- Barkley with 132 total yards and 3 TDs
- Taylor with 135 yards on just 14 touches
- I expect the Vikings to lean on Jones for this pivotal division matchup (fav DK play this week in cash)
Saints @ Falcons (ATL-1.5) Total 42.5
Outsiders don’t realize how much hate there is between these two fanbases
— Keith Flemming (@KeithFlemming) September 27, 2024
I hate the Saints so much I refuse to draft any Saints player to my #FantasyFootball teams https://t.co/GXCf7u1dQA
MME: Kyle Pitts $4.8 k (1.4% DK ownership projection)
- Pitts has 110 yards and a TD, but he’s seen only 12 targets, and his target rate is in the single digits
- The Falcons haven’t run one play all season designed with Pitts as the first read
- But at this price, projected to low owned, and facing a defense whose 28th vs TEs this season on DK
Cash: Darnell Mooney $4.4K (8.3% DK ownership projection)
- Mooney’s seen 15 tgts the last two weeks
- Catching in that span 11 passes for 154 yards and a score
- 14.6 pts or more in DK back-to-back weeks
- saints struggle against horizontal breaking routes and Mooney is top-7 among WRs in fantasy pts per horizontal breaking routes
Eagles @ Bucs (PHI-2.5) Total 44.5
Eagles DL Jalen Carter presents a huge challenge this week for the Bucs OL. He is a destroyer/ game wrecker. pic.twitter.com/fCvYrvqmcu
— RealBucsTalk (@RealBucsTalk) September 27, 2024
MME: Mike Evans 7.0k (4.9% DK ownership projection)
- Godwin is the much safer play, but I like Evans upside for MME with his ownership projection
- Eagles D is 26th on DK against WRs
- If the Bucs line can give Mayfield time versus Jalen Carter and the Eagles front 4, Evans could feast, with the Eagles allowing the 3rd most yards per reception in the NFL
Cash: Saquon Barkley $8.0k (11.2 DK ownership projection%)
- Barkley is single handedly winning games for Philly on the offensive side of the ball
- 351 rushing yards at 5.6 ypc 4 TDs
- 10 receptions 51 yards TD
- The game winning 65 yard TD run was a perfect summation of this season for Barkley
- 7 defenders in the box, expected rush yards 3, he takes it 65 yds to the house
Bengals @ Panthers (CIN-4.5) Total 48.5
Who Wins?
— Razor’s Sports Shift (@TheSports_Shift) September 28, 2024
The Andy Dalton Bowl
BENGALS v PANTHERS
1 EST Sun #KeepPounding #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/mOL4kWfEF2
MME: Erick All Jr $2.5k (ownership projection unavailable)
- All leads all TEs in targets per routes run
- He’s seeing a target on over 30% of his routes over the last two games
- Caught 4 passes each of his last 2 games, finishing top-20 among TEs for the week in scoring on DK
- Carolina is currently 30th in pts allowed to TEs on DK
Cash: Diontae Johnson $5.6k (26% DK projected ownership)
- Dalton is the perfect kind of QB, who can unleash Diontae Johnson, behind the 5th best graded offensive line
- Bengals run man at a high rate among defenses, Johnson has a 41% target rate vs man
- Johnson with Bryce (2games)12 targets, 5 rec 34 yards
- Johnson with Dalton (1game) 14 targets 8 receptions 122 yards a score
Jaguars @ Texans (HOU-7) total 45.5
TEXANS 6-1 AGAINST JAGS SINCE 2020
— 𝙉𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙤 (Derek Stingley Enthusiast) (@_T3RM1NATOR) September 24, 2023
TREVOR LAWRENCE 7 INTS AGAINST US (most against any team)
DEATH, TAXES, AND TEXANS GONNA BEAT THEM JAGSpic.twitter.com/DCkcX3xzzU
MME: Christian Kirk $5.2k (4.3% DK ownership projection)
- Trevor Lawrence has been sacked 11 times this season
- The Texans have 13 sacks this season
- With Evan Engram out again this week, expect TLaw to look Kirk’s way often again if the Texans get consistent pressure like I expect
- It was a similar game script last week and Kirk saw 10 targets, catching 8 passes for 76 yards (Engram missed that game as well)
Cash: Nico Collins $7.3k (19.8% DK ownership projection)
- Collins with 28 targets (at least 8 in each), 18 receptions for 338 yards + TD this season
- Tank Dell is in serious danger of not playing
- Jags run man at highest rate in the league, Collins averaging nearly 4 yards per route run vs man the last two years
- Collins had 5 catches for 96 yards with a TD versus the Browns, a team who plays man defense at a high rate in the Divisional Round (most came in the first half before the Texans pulled away in a game they won easily)
Steelers @ Colts (PIT-1.5) Total 39.5
#Steelers HC Mike Tomlin implied that Justin Fields will once again be the starter this week vs. the #Colts. Russell Wilson will be limited to start the week.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 24, 2024
Shouldn't come as a surprise. Virtually impossible to take Fields off the field right now. pic.twitter.com/xHGGrMNjVh
MME: Calvin Austin $3.3k (3.6% DK ownership projection)
- Austin’s usage has rose each week, currently running routes on about 60% of the Steelers passing plays
- Last week he turned 5 targets into 4 receptions for 93 yards and a score
- Colts run zone 81% of the time (2nd highest in the NFL)
- Austin vs zone (20% target rate), only .04% less than Pickens (Austin is $2.6k cheaper)
- He’s averaging 3 yards per route run vs zone this season
- He’s facing a Colts team whose allowed a league leading 3 receptions of 40+ yards to opposing WRs
Cash: Justin Fields $5.5k (8.4% DK ownership projection)
- Indy is arguably the worst defense in the NFL with the loss of Deforest Buckner to IR
- This Colts D allowed 41 yards on the ground to Malik Willis on 6 carries in week 2
- Fields had his best fantasy game of the season last week vs the Chargers, with a TD on the ground and thru the air, and scored 19.4 pts on DK
- A monster Fields game is coming, why not in a dome vs a bad defense?
- In Fields 6 career dome game starts
- 6 Passing TDs
- 81 rushing yds per/2 rushing TDs
- 19.26 ppg fantasy (17 pts or more in 5/6)
Rams @ Bears (CHI-2.5) Total 40.5
Bears RB Roschon Johnson has LEAGUE-WINNING upside this year🏆🏆🏆
— FANTASY UMPIRE (@FantasyUmpire) September 25, 2024
📈 Caleb Williams is clearly getting more comfortable & the OC wants to establish the run
📈 Jeremy Fowler reported the Bears will give Roschon an extended look this week against the Ramspic.twitter.com/dIe9U1rrsJ
MME: Rome Odunze $5.2k (DK ownership projection unavailable)
- Odunze has fared much better vs zone than man
- Something the Rams run at a top rate in the NFL
- 8 of Odzune’s 9 receptions have come vs zone and 155 of his 156 yards
- Ironically his one TD came vs man
Cash: Roschon Johnson $4.1K (0.5% DK ownership projection)
- Reports say Johnson could see a significant workload this week
- Last week Johnson had 62 yards on 8 touches, Swift 42 yards on 15 touches (Swift avg’g 1.8 yards per carry this season)
- Rams are 24th vs RBs on DK
Commanders @ Cardinals (ARI-3) Total 50.5
"I basically banked my entire career on what he would be and I still believe in it and it's cool to see him playing as well as he is."
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) September 28, 2024
— Kliff Kingsbury on Kyler Murray.
Kingsbury's Commanders face Kyler's Cardinals Sunday.
(H/T @PHNX_Cardinals )pic.twitter.com/KspLiqNdOl
MME: Jayden Daniels $6.5k (DK ownership projection unavailable)
- Daniels is averaging 23.2 ppg on DK
- He’s scored 35.1 points from rushing on DK alone thru 3 weeks with at least 10 carries in all 3 games
- Daniels increased his passing total each week
- Last week he completed 91% of his 23 pass attempts, while averaging 11.3 yards per attempt
- 13 straight offensive possessions have ended in points, 17/19 not including kneel downs
Cash: Marvin Harrison Jr $7.5k (27.6% DK ownership projection unavailable but it will be high)
- With Trey McBride out expect Harrison to see a monster target share.
- Washington allowed the most passing yards and passing touchdowns in the NFL last season, this season they are 1st in TDs and 3rd in passing yards
- Number 1 WRs have been killing the commanders this season
- Mike Evans/Malik Nabers/Ja’Marr Chase combined for 21 receptions for 307 yards and 5 TDs
- As good as those receivers are, in their other six games before week 4, they’ve combined for 29 receptions for 280 yards and 2 scores (for those bad at math, in twice as many games, they only have 8 more receptions, 27 less receiving yards, and 3 less TDs)
Pats @ 49ers (SF-9.5) Total 39.5
Signs are pointing to BOTH #49ers TE George Kittle & WR Deebo Samuel making their return this Sunday Vs Patriots!
— 49ers & NFL News 24/7 (@49ersSportsTalk) September 27, 2024
A HUGEEEEE BOOST TO THE OFFENSE. #FTTB pic.twitter.com/azloVONRPc
MME: Demario Douglas $4.5k (DK ownership projection unavailable)
- after Douglas only 3 tgts over his first two games
- The NE coaching staff said they had to get him the ball
- Week 3 he saw 9 tgts, catching 7 passes for 69 yds
- Expect the pats to be down and throwing often in this game
Cash: George Kittle $5.5k (2.8% DK ownership projection)
- This is a must win game for SF
- New England has done a good job stopping the run this season (this week the 49ers will need to throw the ball to move the ball consistently)
- Kittle in his 2 games this week
- 13 targets, 11 receptions, 14.3 ppg on DK
- Tyler Conklin just had 93 yards on 5 receptions vs this Pats D
Browns @ Raiders (LV-1) Total 37.5
Browns Vs. Raiders- O/U 36 pic.twitter.com/XvQxriHxlr
— ChubbMuse (@ChubbMuse) September 28, 2024
MME: Tre Tucker $3.6k (DK ownership projection unavailable)
- Devante Adams and Michael Mayer are ruled out this week
- Tucker broke out last week with 7 receptions for 96 yards and a TD
- He could easily see 5-10 targets this week with him running routes on 91% of Raiders passing plays last week (with Adams playing)
Cash: Brock Bowers $5.6k (DK ownership projection unavailable)
- The Browns currently rank 10th on DK vs TEs
- BUT Jake Ferguson only played 2 1/2 quarters week 1 but was targeted 5 times catching 3 passes vs the Browns, Evan Engram missed the Jags week 2 matchup vs the Browns (backup Strange caught 3 passes for 65 yards)
- Bowers has yet to play 73% of the Raiders offensive snaps, or run routes on more than 65% of the team’s passing plays
- This changes versus the Browns with Mayer and Adams out
Chiefs @ Chargers (KC-8.5) Total 39.5
#Chargers QB Justin Herbert is expected to start again this week against the #Chiefs, barring a pregame setback with his high-ankle sprain, per me, @TomPelissero and @MikeGarafolo.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 28, 2024
LAC will be short-handed with several big names out. But Herbert likely plays if all goes well. pic.twitter.com/RiPoE2rw7z
MME: Travis Kelce $5.8k (2.7% DK ownership projection)
- I never thought I would see Kelce under 6k for DFS or less than 3% owned
- Kelce is having the worst fantasy season of his career but is a great upside play at his price/projected ownership level
- Kelce’s last two games vs Chargers
- Week 7 2023: 12 receptions/179 yards/TD/35.9 pts
- Week 11 2022: 6 receptions/115 yards/3 TDs/35.5 pts
Cash: Ladd McConkey $4.8k (DK ownership projection unavailable)
- This could be Ladd’s breakout game
- He’s 3rd among WRs in targets per route run at 29%
- McConkey accounted for 50% of the Chargers first read targets Week 3
- Quentin Johnston is having a great season but struggles with press coverage, the Chiefs have big/physical CBs who are going to give QJ issues
- Chiefs run Cover-3 defense at the lowest rate in the NFL (14%)
- Ladd has a 24% target rate versus Cover 3 and a 33% against all other defenses
