Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 3 (2024)

Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email September 21, 2024
11 minutes read
Keith's DK DFS Playbook Week 3 (2024) | Fantasy In Frames

Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!

This season, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.

When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.

My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups.

Here is my DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 3 (2024)!

Chargers @ Steelers (PIT-2.5) Total 35.5

MME: J.K. Dobbins $6.4k (4% DK ownership projection)
  • Dobbins has rushed for 266 yards on just 27 carries and 2 touchdowns 
  • He’s facing a tough Steelers run defense but this could be the game he sees significantly more volume 
  • More volume could mean a great game even against a tough run D with him currently 1st in yards per touch, 2nd in breakaway run rate, and with him behind the o-line with the best run blocking rate 
Cash: George Pickens $5.7k (2.5% DK projected ownership)
  • Pickens only has 8 receptions for 114 yards this season 
  • However he’s had 128 yards and a score negated by penalties 
  • He’s finished top-6 among WRs in average separation score both weeks 
  • He’s been covered by two of the best CBs in the league for 80% of his snaps this season (AJ Terrell and Patrick Surtain) 

Texans @ Vikings (HOU-2) Total 46.5

MME: Jalen Nailor $4.4K (3% DK ownership projection)
  • As of Thursday Jordan Addison had still not practiced since injuring his ankle week 1, putting his chances of playing week 3 in serious jeopardy 
  • Nailor thrived in Addison’s absence week 2, running 16 more routes, catching three more passes, and scoring 5.3 more fantasy points than week 1 
  • Nailor currently is first in QBR per target and 2nd in fantasy points per target among WRs 
Cash: Nico Collins $7.3k (14% DK ownership projection)
  • Collins currently has 53 more receiving yards than any WR in football and more receiving yards than 3 teams passing yards on the season 
  • This is despite him being 22nd in routes run and 19th in target share 
  • The Vikings blitz at one of the highest rates in the league. Collins sees 62% of Stroud’s passing yards when facing the blitz 

Eagles @ Saints (NO-2.5) Total 49.5

MME: Derek Carr $5.8k (7.2% DK ownership projection)
  • Carr is 2nd in fantasy pts among QBs despite being 31st in pass attempts (39 total) 
  • He’s 4th in comp % vs man and 3rd vs zone 
  • The Saints have flipped the script with their offensive game plan. Last year they were last in pre-snap motion and play action plays, this year their 1st in both. 
  • Are the Saints the latest offense to start the season with little fanfare, who went on to break a bunch of offensive scoring records? Think the 2000 Rams (Mike Martz) or the 2016 Falcons (Kyle Shannahan). I’m not sure the answer but playing Saints in DFS lineups until DK pricing and ownership goes up for their key players is a good strategy. 
Cash: Devonta Smith $6.9k (21.2% DK ownership projection)
  • It’s okay in cash games to play a high owned player, as long as you believe he’s going to score enough points to justify their price. (Smith this week is a perfect example of this) 
  • Smith in his first game in Philly without Brown since Brown joined the team saw 10 targets, caught 7 passes, for 76 yards and a score, Scoring 20.6 pts on DK
  • The Saints allowed 29 receptions for 362 yards to opposing WRs this season
  • Over Smith’s last 10 regular season games played with Hurts and w/o AJ Brown he’s averaging over 9 targets, 6 receptions, 80 yards and 6 TDs. 

Broncos @ Bucs (TB-6.5) Total 40.5

MME: Josh Reynolds $4.4K (6% DK ownership projection)
  • Reynolds significant target volume in Denver thus far can’t be ignored (24th among WRs with 13)
  • He’s also top-20 among WRs in receptions and receiving yards 
  • I expect the Bucs to be up in this game with Baker thriving versus the blitz this season. 
  • Meaning the Broncos will be throwing early and often. Reynolds could see double digit targets in this matchup 
Cash: Baker Mayfield $6.3k (5.8%)
  • Baker should be owned way more than is projected this week 
  • He’s scored 19.8 pts or more in 8 of his last 10 starts with TB 
  • He’s running more than ever. Rushing for 55 yards and a score in just 2 games, that’s over 50% of his 2022 total in 12 games, and nearly 33% of his rushing total from last season 
  • The Broncos have blitz’d at the highest rate in the league. Baker’s made quality throws on 22 of the 23 passes against the blitz this season and he’s 2nd in the NFL in passing yards (257 yards) versus the blitz this season. 

Packers @ Titans (TEN-3) Total 37.5

MME: Titans D $2.7k 
  • Maybe I’m being cynical, but I don’t see the Packers rushing Jordan Love back and starting vs the Titans 
  • I also don’t believe the Packers can repeat their offensive formula rushing the ball 53 times to only 14 passes with Malik Willis at QB and win. 
  • If the Titans D force GB to throw more that’s good news for the Titans D in DFS 
Cash: Tony Pollard $6.0k proj ownership 9% 
  • My belief that Tyjae Spears was the back you wanted in fantasy drafts was one of my biggest whiffs this summer 
  • Pollard is seeing 75% of the Titans rush shares so far this season and an even more surprising 19% of targets in their  passing game 
  • Saquan Barkley was RB1 and Jonathan Taylor was RB9 in fantasy facing Green Bay this season. They combined for 269 total yards and 3 scores. 

Giants @ Browns (CLE-6.5) Total 38.5

MME: Malik Nabers $6.4K (DK ownership projection unavailable)
  • Nabers has seen an absurd 25 targets this season 
  • He’s seeing 35% of the Giants 9th highest pass rate of 35 passes per game 
  • This is a difficult matchup but getting the WR with the second most targets and highest target rate as the 18th most expensive WR in the main slate on DK is too good to pass up  
Cash: Jerome Ford $5.8k (4.5% DK ownership projection)
  • It’s fair to question why I would recommend Ford after his snap share and total touches went down significantly week 2 compared to week 1. 
  • The answer is Pierre Strong’s injury that’s ruled him out versus the Giants.
  • 19% of Deshaun Watson’s pass attempts have been to RBs this season, Ford will be on the field for a majority passing downs this week 
  • The Giants have allowed 11 receptions to RBs this season and 282 yards on the ground 

Bears @ Colts (IND-1) Total 43.5

MME: Bears Defense $2.6k 
  • Chicago’s defense since their trade for Montez Sweat last season
  • The Bears have not allowed more than 20 points in their last 8 games dating back to last season
  • This season the Bears D has 6 sacks, 4 forced turnovers, and 2 defensive touchdowns
Cash: Anthony Richardson $6.7k (4.5% DK ownership projection)
  • Will Levis and CJ Stroud against the Bears rushed for a combined 80 yards on 9 carries 
  • Richardson has 93 yards on 10 carries this season and is 8th among QBs in fantasy points per game 
  • Richardson’s averaging 26.2 fantasy ppg in his 3 games at home in his young career 

Panthers @ Raiders (LV-6) Total 39.5

MME: Andy Dalton $4.8k (1.8% DK ownership projection) 
  • Dalton at $4.8k om DK this week only needs 14.2 pts to equal his 3x in points. 
  • He scored 23.8 pts throwing the ball 58 times in his only start for the Panthers last season. 
  • Dalton’s made 14 starts since 2021 and he’s averaging 14.58 pts per game in them.  
  • Panthers o-line currently rank 5th for pass block win rate among offensive lines. 
Cash: Brock Bowers $5.4K (DK ownership projection unavailable) 
  • Despite only playing 73% of snaps and running routes on 67% of those plays. 
  • Bowers has turned 17 targets into 15 receptions for 156 yards.
  •  Bowers is seeing a 23.9% target rate, only Hunter Henry and Trey McBride have a higher rate. 

Dolphins @ Seahawks (SEA-4.5) Total 41.5

MME: Jonnu Smith 3.4k (2% DK ownership projection 

 

  • Smith saw seven targets in week two after only seeing 1 in week 1. 
  • The Dolphins coaching staff stated this week they need to make more of an effort to get him the ball with his superb abilities after the catch. 
  • Seattle was shredded by Patriots TE Hunter Henry last week as he caught 8 passes for 109 yards on 12 targets. 
Cash: De’Von Achane $7.0k (27.6% DK ownership projection)
  • Another player who will be straight chalk, but I love single entries and double-ups this week. 
  • Through 2 games, Achane has 32 rush attempts, 14 targets, 14 receptions for 265 yards and two scores. 
  • He’s seeing nearly a 20% target rate in the Dolphins passing game. 
  • Seattle is averaging 4.5 receptions per to opposing RBs and giving up 244 yards on 51 carries and a TD on the ground. 
  • With Skyler Thompson starting at quarterback, there could be more targets for Dolphins TEs and RBs. 
  • Four of Thompson’s 14 passes went to Achane when he entered the game last week.  

Ravens @ Cowboys (BAL-1) Total 47.5

MME: Justice Hill $4.9k (1% DK ownership projection) 
  • Hill has played 53% of the snaps in the Ravens backfield, more than Derrick Henry. 
  • after running 14 routes in week 1 Hill only ran 7 in their second game but that was mostly due to the Ravens being up early on the Raiders. 
  • Among RBs Hill is 4th in yards per route run, 2nd in yards created per touch and 8th in fantasy pts per opportunity. 
  • The Raven’s opponent, the Cowboys, has allowed 10 receptions on 13 targets to opposing RBs through two games. 
Cash: Cee Dee Lamb $8.8k (7% DK ownership projection) 
  • Lamb’s season hasn’t started great, with only nine receptions for 151 yards
  • This week, he faces a Baltimore defense that’s allowed the second most points in fantasy to #1 WRs.
  • Rashee Rice and Devante Adams combined for 21 targets, 17 receptions, and 233 yards versus Baltimore. In their other game this season, not against the Ravens, Rice and Adams combined for 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 134 yards.

Lions @ Cardinals (DET-3) Total 51.5

MME:  Jameson Williams $5.8k (9.8% DK ownership projection)
  • With a healthy Laporta, St Brown, Gibbs, and Montgomery Williams are still seeing nearly a 25% target rate. 
  • Through 2 games, he’s seen 20 targets and caught ten passes for 200 yards and a score. He’s also rushed for 28 yards on just 2 carries. 
  • He’s facing a Cardinals D that, despite playing the Rams without Puka and with Kupp playing a little more than half the game, has allowed 24 receptions for 329 yards and 2 TDs to opposing WRs.   
Cash:  Jared Goff $6.5k (6.5% DK ownership projection)
  • Goff has the third most passing yards this season vs the blitz. 
  • Last season, facing a Vikings team in week 18 who blitzes as much as any team in football, Goff was 21/29 for 310 yards with two touchdowns on passing plays the Vikings blitzed. 
  • Goff is 29th at QB in fantasy ppg but 2nd in expected fantasy pts per game. Better days are ahead. 
  • The Cardinals secondary was ranked by PFF this preseason 32nd, after two games they are 31st on PFF. 

49ers @ Rams (SF-6.5) Total 43.5

MME:  Jordan Whittington $4.2k (DK ownership projection unknown) 
  • Many fantasy analysts had Whittington on their sleeper lists this summer. 
  • Whittington went from playing 1% of offensive snaps in week 1 to 50% in week 2. 
  • With Puka and Kupp expected to miss multiple games the Rams need to find production at WR. Whittington is arguably the most talented healthy WR currently on their roster.   
Cash: Jordan Mason $6.2k (39.8% DK ownership projection)
  • This is the last week Mason is a true value on DK, ownership be damned I’m playing him in most of my lineups. 
  • He’s currently handling 98% of the Niners rush attempts, and 100% of their red zone carries inside the 10. 
  • For those worried about Arizona loading the box with Kittle doubtful and Deebo out. Mason is averaging 6.7 defenders in the box and doing just fine. 
  • A big reason is his ability to evade tackles (he’s 10th among RBs) and create yards. (164 of his 247 rushing yards)

Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9 pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays.

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Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email September 21, 2024
11 minutes read
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