Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!
This season, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.
When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.
My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups.
Here is my DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 2 (2024)!
Raiders @ Ravens (BLT-9) Total 41.5
#Raiders Rundown – Week 2 at Baltimore Ravens#RaiderNation | @Raiders pic.twitter.com/hc8uqdF4BI
— Raiders PR (@RAIDERS_PR) September 13, 2024
MME: Isaiah Likely $4.8k
- Likely was one of my favorite values and most drafted players in fantasy drafts.
- Week 1 he saw the 2nd most targets in the NFL (12)
- Led all TEs with nine first-read targets (four more than McBride and Bowers, who were 2nd)
- Likely could be the #1 pass catcher for the Ravens this season
- The Ravens’ offense over their last 11 regular season games with Todd Monken calling plays, and Lamar at QB is averaging 32.7 points per game
Cash: Brock Bowers (Go Dawgs!) $4.4k
- Bowers ran routes on 79% of his snaps last week.
- Among TEs, only McBride had a higher target share than the 24% of Bowers.
- Bowers saw eight targets, catching six passes for 48 yards in his NFL debut.
- I expect the Raiders to throw often in a game, and I expect them to be trailing throughout.
Browns @ Jaguars (JAX-3) Total 41.5
"I like the Jags laying -3" 🐆@mikeblewitt reveals his leans in Browns 🆚 Jaguars
— SportsGridRadio (@SportsGridRadio) September 13, 2024
▪️ Browns TT u19.5
▪️ Total Under 41.5#NFLBets #CLEvsJAX #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/NquJPw4bqy
MME: Jordan Akins $3.0k
- David Njoku has been ruled out of this game, making Akins the Browns TE this week.
- Watson targets TEs at a 20% rate for his career.
- Last week, Njoku and Akins were the top Browns in receiving yards.
- Catching seven passes on nine targets.
Cash: Brian Thomas Jr. $4.8k
- I don’t love any plays in cash from this game.
- But Thomas Jr is the best value in this game with immense upside.
- Thomas is a freak athlete who has the potential to be the best WR in this loaded rookie class.
- In his NFL debut, Thomas caught all four targets for 47 yards and a TD.
- His TD was an impressive catch against lockdown corner Jalen Ramsey.
Jets @ Titans (NYJ-3.5) Total 41.5
🚨 Gang's All Here postgame live show following #Jets vs. #Titans on Sunday
— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) September 13, 2024
Featuring @RyanMSampson & @FrankieVitz from @uSTADIUM
Watch here ➡️ https://t.co/LzkHXxVIS8 pic.twitter.com/VudGhxlYuK
MME: Tyjae Spears $5.0k
- it was a rough opening week for Spears truthers like myself
- Pollard is the number 1 RB in Tennessee, but this play is about the game script I expect vs the Jets.
- I expect the Titans to be down, and Spears is the better pass-catching back of him and Pollard.
- Spears is the 38th most expensive RB on the state but was top-15 among RBs last week in target share, routes run, targets, and receptions
Cash: Allen Lazard $3.3k
- Lazard will be in the majority of my cash game lineups this week
- I do not understand why he’s $3300 coming off a game where he saw nine targets, six receptions, 89 yards, and 2 touchdowns
- Aaron Rodgers has always been a QB who has his guys, and he’ll target them frequently, even if said player is past their prime. Examples include Randall Cobb and Donald Driver
49ers @ Vikings (SF-5) Total 46.5
Vikings-49ers in 2009. Place went absolutely nuts.
— Ali Siddiqui (@asiddiqui15) September 11, 2024
Got a $10 nosebleed seat from a scalper. Yeah, definitely money well spent.
I actually was heading down to the exit right before the play happened. Got to see the play even better.
pic.twitter.com/83kJvJQUl4
MME: Deebo Samuel $6.8k
- CMC is going to miss week 2
- If he does, Deebo is a great play in MME or cash
- Samuel sees extra touches in the run anytime CMC is out
- The Vikings blitz as much as any team in the NFL, meaning they play alot of zone
- Deebo’s win and target rate are both significantly higher when facing zone
Cash: Jordan Mason $3.9k
- The Vikings have/are one of the best run defenses in the NFL, making this is a tough matchup for Mason
- But getting the lead back in a Shannahan offense for 5.2k is too good to pass up in cash.
- Especially when that back rushed for 140 yards and TD.
- Among RBs last week Mason was 2nd in yards after contact and was 3rd in evading tackles.
Seahawks @ Patriots (SEA-3.5) Total 37.5
Patriots Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler to perform Keeper of the Light duties in 2024 home opener vs. Seattle Seahawks: https://t.co/FdWPvbvbDT pic.twitter.com/PPToHCOuvc
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 12, 2024
MME: Zach Charbonnet $5.8k
- Walker is doubtful for the matchup with the Pats
- Meaning Charbonnet will see an expanded role as the lead back for the Seahawks
- Last week, he had ten touches and a touchdown in a game Walker saw 22 touches.
Cash: New England D $2.8k
- Seattle is traveling cross country for a 1 pm kickoff
- Denver’s best pass rusher created seven pressures on 42 snaps last week vs Seattle
- New England has three sacks in their opener vs the Bengals
Chargers @ Panthers (LAC-5) Total 41.5
Chargers (-5) @ Panthers
— PFF (@PFF) September 13, 2024
Can Carolina cover this weekend? @DKSportsbook | #dkpartner pic.twitter.com/YFxxQOm1sm
MME: Gus Edwards $5.2k
- Edwards had an incredibly disappointing first game for the Chargers, rushing from 26 yards on 11 carries.
- This could lead Edwards to being low-owned this week
- The Chargers should have an easier time moving the ball on the Panthers than they did the Raiders last week (more red zone opportunities)
- Edwards had more touches and snaps in the red zone than Dobbins
Cash: JK Dobbins $5.4k
- Joe Matz was all over Dobbins big day vs the Raiders on the Daily Fix previewing week 1
- Among RBs last week Dobbins was top-3 in yards, fantasy pts per opportunity, yards per touch, breakaway runs, breakaway run rate, and maybe most important run blocking rate
Saints @ Cowboys (DAL-6) Total 46.5
No team dialed up more blitzes in week 1️⃣ than the Saints (15).
— Outl✭w (@OutlawCowboyNFL) September 12, 2024
No QB in the NFL performed better under pressure than Dak Prescott in 2023 (1st in Passer Rating & PFF grade when pressured).
Go ahead Saints, FAFO.pic.twitter.com/XkTiMEKrlC
MME: Luke Schoonmaker $2.9k
- This is all about opportunity
- It looks like Jake Ferguson is going to miss this game
- 20+% of Dak’s passes have gone to TEs the last two seasons
- Last week, Ferguson saw the third most targets on the Cowboys behind Lamb and Cooks
Cash: Brandin Cooks $5.6k
- For the second straight week, Dallas is facing a lockdown CB who will shadow Cee Dee Lamb
- Last week, in a similar situation, Cooks saw seven targets, turning them into four receptions for 40 yds and a TD
- The Saints also run a lot of man similar to the Browns
- Cooks’ target rate is 13% vs. zone compared to nearly 19% when facing man coverage.
Giants @ Commanders (WSH-1.5) Total 43.5
ICYMI on @BartAndHahn:@ChrisCanty99 joined the program to preview Sunday's matchup between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders. pic.twitter.com/lRrlUM9vir
— ESPN New York (@ESPNNewYork) September 13, 2024
MME: Terry McLaurin $5.7k
- there’s a good chance McLaurin is low-owned following his 4-target debut with Jayden Daniels
- In multi-entry, McLaurin is worth the risk when you consider his average depth of target was 20 yards last week
- The Giants last week allowed six receptions of 15+ yards, including a 44-yard catch by Jefferson and a 21-yard TD grab by Nailors
Cash: Brian Robinson Jr. $5.8k
- Daniels is also a really good cash option from this game
- But I love the value of Robinson this week vs the Giants
- The same Giants team that allowed the 6th most rushing yards last season and opened the season allowing Aaron Jones to rush for 94 yards and a score at over 6 yards per carry
- Robinson handled 86% of the Commanders’ rushing attempts and saw the same amount of targets in the passing game as Austin Ekeler
Bucs @ Lions (DET-7.5) Total 51.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown has an elite matchup against Tampa Bay's zone coverage 👀
— PFF DET Lions (@PFF_Lions) September 13, 2024
ARSB has been one of the most productive WRs against zone coverage, ranking 5th in yards per route run.
Meanwhile, the Bucs run zone at the 9th highest rate in the NFL pic.twitter.com/5bqyU8P2Px
MME: Amon-Ra St. Brown $8.1k
- Another player who will prob be low-owned due to a disappointing opening game
- Especially when the Bucs are currently 1st on DK vs. opposing WRs, even though it shouldn’t matter at this point in the season
- Mini rant is incoming, so don’t pay attention to the position rankings early in the season. There is not enough data or a large enough sample for the ranking to accurately reflect the quality of that defense vs a specific position.
- The Bucs blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL
- St. Brown’s target rate swells to over 30% when Goff is blitzed
- Brown saw 29 targets in the two games vs Tampa last season
Cash: Baker Mayfield $5.9k
- Baker is a QB1 right now in fantasy
- He had 19.8 pts or more in 7 of his last eight starts
- Facing a Lions defense that, over their last seven games, have allowed 350 passing yards per game
- In Baker’s last matchup with Detroit in the Divisional Round, he threw for 350 yards and 3 TDs
Colts @ Packers (IND-2.5) Total 40.5
Packers WRs are legit blockers in the run game also so it would create the opportunity for mismatches in the RPO game with Willis
— Daniel O'Connell (@Beard_82) September 13, 2024
Can't afford to let the Colts stack the box and just focus on shutting down our run game
Need to keep the defense guessing what's coming at them https://t.co/8ugbO7ekCl
MME: Emmanuel Wilson $4.5k
- This play only applies if Marshawn Lloyd is ruled out
- If he is, expect Wilson to see a heavier workload than he did in week 1, where saw six touches for 48 yards
- The Packers are starting Malik Willis at QB
- I would throw it as little as possible this week if I called plays for the Packers. I expect a heavy dose of all Packers backs available.
Cash: Anthony Richardson $6.8k
- The newest fantasy cheat code at the QB position due to his combo of throwing and running skills
- Richardson is averaging 26.2 points in his three full games played during his NFL career
- He’s finished no worse than QB4 in three games
Rams @ Cardinals (ARI-1.5) Total 47.5
Eyes on the Rams. @K1 | #BirdGang pic.twitter.com/k3YyagXt8F
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) September 11, 2024
MME: Tyler Johnson $3.3k
- Puka is on IR, leaving a lot of available targets for other Rams pass catchers.
- Last week, after the Puka injury, Johnson saw seven targets, catching five passes for 79 yards
- The Rams are facing injuries to three of their starting offensive lineman
- That’s why I prefer Johnson over Demarcus Robinson due to if the Rams are forced to get rid of the ball quicker, Johnson runs more of the shorter depth routes
Cash: Cooper Kupp $7.6k
- Kupp will be high-owned this week, and you should be one of them in cash games.
- Let others make the mistake of Kupp under 8k on DK without Puka
- Last week, Kupp saw 21 targets (9 more than anyone else in the NFL), catching 14 passes and a touchdown
- Kupp’s targets per route run last season with Puka on the field was 24%. It swelled to 35% with Puka not on the field
- It is no surprise last week in a game, when Puka went out early with an injury, Kupp’s target per route run was 41% (only Kennan Allen’s was higher)
Steelers @ Broncos (PIT-2.5) Total 36.5
Bo Nix and the Broncos are going to face a heavy zone defense against the Steelers in their home opener
— Jordan Lopez (@JordanTLopez) September 13, 2024
Pittsburgh had a zone coverage rate of 80.4% in Week 1 against ATL
According to PFF, Vele caught all 8 of his receptions vs zone coverage last week
If Vele can't play, I…
MME: Justin Fields $5.4k
- Fields is a decent play in both MME and Cash
- He’s scored 20 points or more in 13 of his last 29 starts, double digits in 27 of those games, including his 11.9 pts last week
- He saw 14 rush attempts last week, and I expect him to be around that number most weeks he starts in an Arthur Smith offense
- Fields scored 28.9 pts in Denver last year as Chicago’s starting QB
Cash: Najee Harris $5.5k
- Harris saw 77% of the RB rush attempts in week 1 for the Steelers
- He saw five red zone touches, second among running backs
- This week he faces a Denver defense that allowed Kenneth Walker to rush for 100 yards and a score at 5.2 ypc
- Harris saw 20 rush attempts in week 1, Patterson and Warren combined for six rush attempts
- Maybe more significantly, Harris saw the same amount of pass attempts as Jaylen Warren in the passing game
- I’ve been saying all summer I believe Harris is a prototypical RB for an Arthur Smith offense
Bengals @ Chiefs (KC-5.5) Total 48.5
Bengals.
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 13, 2024
Chiefs.
Sunday @ Arrowhead 😤 pic.twitter.com/vw1jgkhJJy
MME: Chase Brown $4.7k
- similar to Tyjae Spears in the Titans vs Jets game
- I expect the Bengals to be down and throwing often
- Brown didn’t see a lot of non-passing situation snaps in week 1, but that could play to his advantage this week
Cash: Travis Kelce $6.2k
- if not for an uncharacteristic drop in the end zone, Kelce would have scored 13.4 pts
- He’s facing a Bengals team that allowed the most receptions, 2nd most yards, and 6 TDs to opposing TEs