Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!
Welcome to the Thunder Dome. Otherwise known as Week 18 of NFL DFS action. There’s numerous teams with nothing to play for this week. Navigating who will play, and how much, is as important as a players matchup.
I’m only interested in seven of the thirteen games on the Sunday slate this week. There are no players recommended from the Texans vs Titans, Bills vs Patriots, Giants vs Eagles, Bears vs Packers, Dolphins vs Jets, and Raiders vs Chargers.
I won’t recommend players from games I’m unsure of their team’s motivation or how much their starters play. Best of luck to everyone with their Week 18 DFS lineups.
Reminder, The Daily Fix will be live every Friday night at 9pm helping you build your DFS lineups for each playoff round.
Let’s dive into Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook: Week 18
Panthers @ Falcons (ATL-8) O/U 47.5
SUPERSTAR: #Falcons RB Bijan Robinson can have the most games with at least 50 scrimmage yards by a player in his first two seasons in NFL HISTORY.
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) January 3, 2025
Robinson would tie Hall of Famers Edgerrin James and LaDainian Tomlinson.
BIJAN IS SPECIAL. pic.twitter.com/LB3TW0fKmQ
MME: Adam Thielen $6.2k
- Thielen continues to thrive as Bryce Young’s favorite target
- Over his last 5 games
- 40 targets
- 32 receptions (5 receptions or more in each)
- 4 touchdowns
- 20.5 ppg on DK (3 games of 22 pts or more)
- Falcons in their last two games indoors allowed 31 receptions for 425 yards and 5 scores to opposing WRs
Cash: Bijan Robinson $8.5k
- There are few safe plays this week
- Bijan is one of them and my fav play this week despite his price tag
- The Panthers rank dead last vs RBs and allow nearly 25 more yards per game to opposing RBs than any defense in the NFL
- Ironically Bijan had his first 20 point game versus Carolina in Week 6
- He’s scored 20 pts or more in eight of ten games since
Saints @ Bucs (TB-14) O/U 43.5
Mike Evans will earn a $3,000,000 contract bonus if he totals 70/1000/10 this season.
— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) January 3, 2025
He's currently at 65 receptions for 915 yards and 11 TDs.
He's playing against a Marshon Lattimore-less Saints secondary this week 👀 pic.twitter.com/PY3d8PaFzx
MME: Baker Mayfield $7.0k
- The main players on TB are IMO the other safe plays this week (Bucky/Baker/Evans)
- TB needs a win to secure a playoff berth and win the NFC South
- Mayfield is on an absolute heater the last month
- Throwing 14 touchdowns over his last four while averaging 311 passing yards and 20 rushing yards per game
- Baker scored 31.9 pts in his first matchup with the Saints in Week 6
Cash: Mike Evans $8.0k
- Evans needs 85 yards to continue his streak of eleven consecutive seasons with 1k yds/10 touchdowns (that’s a lock)
- He also needs 5 receptions to hit a million dollar individual bonus
- Evans also is peaking at the end of the year with 22 receptions for 315 yards and four scores over his last three games
- The Saints traded away Marcus Lattemore since their last matchup with the Bucs
- Lattemore was one of the few CBs who consistently shutdown Evans, with him gone, I expect Evans to have a huge season finale versus the Saints
Jaguars @ Colts (IND-5) O/U 43.5
BTJ is here to stay 🔥@Jaguars | @BrianThomas_11 pic.twitter.com/zqelUUMj6w
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) January 2, 2025
MME: Alec Pierce $5.0k
- Pierce is coming off a career high game in terms of targets (9) and receptions (6)
- Scoring a season high 27.2 pts on DraftKings
- Joe Flacco will start again this week for Indy
- The Colts are facing a Jags defense that ranks dead last in DVOA vs the pass, the 2nd most yards per reception and a touchdown per game to opposing WRs
- Pierce ranks 1st among WRs in ADOT and deep targets
- Jacksonville allows the most passing plays of 20+ and 40+ yards
Cash: Brian Thomas Jr. 7.3k
- Thomas has played four games with Mac Jones as the starter (Sunday will be his fifth)
- Previous four games
- 49 targets
- 34 receptions
- 414 yards
- 4 Touchdowns
- 26.8 ppg on DK
- Last week Drew Lock connected with Giants WRs 13 times for 274 yards and four scores last week against the Colts secondary
Commanders @ Cowboys (WSH-6.5) O/U 43.5
#Cowboys Trey Lance will start this week as he tries to showcase for #NFL teams that he is someone worth taking a chance on in the offseason. pic.twitter.com/D4PqOhmFgm
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) January 4, 2025
MME: Trey Lance $4.7k
- It’s been reported Trey Lance will see significant snaps against the Commanders on Sunday
- Lance has played significant snaps in only four games in his young career, averaging 16.75 fantasy pts in those games
- Rushing for 205 yards in those games
Cash: Zach Ertz $4.0k
- Ertz would earn half a million in bonuses for 9 receptions and/or 90 yards receiving
- He’s scored a TD in four of his last six games
- Ertz scored 15.8 pts in his first matchup with the Cowboys catching six passes for 38 yards and a score
Seahawks @ Rams (SEA-6.5) O/U 38.5
Trust the Rookie 😈
— GOATEDGambler77🐐 (@Gambler77Goated) January 4, 2025
🏈1u- Blake Corum O 57.5 Rush Yds
(-115)
-Obviously has not cleared this line yet this year but he’s in for a workhorse role for week 18.
-Sean McVay is sitting the starters and said he’s excited to see Corum with a big workload.
-They have capital invested… pic.twitter.com/0eJbIRnjKc
MME: Blake Corum $5.6k
- The Rams are sitting all their stars for this matchup with the Seahawks
- There will be no Stafford/Puka/Kupp/Kyren
- Blake Corum will get an opportunity to show his skills as a featured back
- The most carries Corum’s seen in a game this season is eight, he could easily see double that number this week
- The Seahawks allow the ninth most rushing yards and sixth most yards per carry to opposing running backs
Cash: JSN $6.1k
- Last week JSN ended an eight game streak of scoring double digit points on DraftKings (he averaged 21.4 ppg during that streak)
- He should get back on track this week versus a Rams team sitting key players on offense and defense
- JSN’s biggest fantasy game of the season came in the first matchup with the Rams (7 rec/180 yds/2 TDs)
- His QB Geno Smith needs to throw for 185 yards to receive a 2-million-dollar bonus
Chiefs @ Broncos (DEN-10.5) O/U 40.5
Noah Gray To Fill In As TE1 For Season Finale https://t.co/I91WVdDSSc
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) January 4, 2025
MME: Noah Gray $3.8k
- The Chiefs are another team resting their starters
- There’s risk in this play because I’m not sure if Gray will be included in the Chiefs players that are rested for this game
- His volume/production plummeted with Hollywood Brown’s return from injury
- Gray saw all of 2 targets over his last two games, after seeing 25 in his previous five games
- With Carson Wentz starting you can expect whatever TE is on the field for the Chiefs to see significant volume
- In 2020 Wentz targeted TEs on over 30% of his pass attempts and in his seven appearances in 2021 he averaged over 10 pass attempts per game to TEs
Cash: Carson Wentz $5.7k
- Wentz scored 20+ pts in his last start Week 18 of last year
- He’s scored 20+ pts in four of his last nine starts since 2021
- I expect Wentz to use his legs a lot, raising his floor for this week
- In his one start last season he rushed it over 10 times for 56 yards and a score
49ers @ Cardinals (ARI-4.5) O/U 42.5
"It will be good to see Dobbsy."
— Bo Brack (@BoBrack) January 1, 2025
Arizona Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon is excited to face Joshua Dobbs, who started 8 games last season for the Cards. JG expects Kyle Shanahan to retrofit the 49ers system to Dobbs. @PHNX_Cardinals pic.twitter.com/FvdkVifhfC
MME: Michael Carter $4.7k
- James Conner and Trey Benson are out for the Cardinals finale
- Carter’s seen 25 touches, gained 129 yards, and scored 20 fantasy points with Conner banged up the last two weeks
- He’ll likely see lead back duties for the finale against SF with Deejay Dallas as the teams number two RB
- The 49ers rank bottom ten versus RBs in yards per game, receptions per, and touchdowns allowed
Cash: Joshua Dobbs $4.0k
- The Niners have ruled out Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel for this game, Kittle is questionable
- Joshua Dobbs gets his first start in the Kyle Shannahan 49ers offense
- Last year in a similar offense in Minnesota, Dobbs was a top-5 QB for the week in two of his five starts
- Dobbs started 13 games last season for the Cardinals and Vikings, scoring 16 points or more in eight of them
- The main reason for his fantasy success was his ability to use his legs, rushing for 421 yards and six rushing touchdowns
Thank you for reading Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook (Week 18)! You can keep the conversation going by following and interacting with him on Twitter/X @KeithFlemming
Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9 pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays. This week’s show is below!
The Daily Fix | Week 12 NFL DraftKings DFS Plays of The Week https://t.co/VhGdM5le7W
— Fantasy In Frames | Fantasy Football Content (@FantasyInFrames) November 23, 2024
