Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook: Week 17

Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email December 28, 2024
7 minutes read
Keith's DK DFS Playbook Week 17 (2024) | Fantasy In Frames

Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!

There are only eight games on the Sunday main slate this week due to the two games on Christmas, game on Thursday, and trip of games on Saturday. Providing a good opportunity in multi entry events. Last week’s article included Barkley, Conners, BTJ, and Abdullah. Let’s keep the good plays coming in the final DraftKings slate of this calendar year.

Each week, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.

When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.

My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups. Good luck this week!

Let’s dive into Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook: Week 17

Jets @ Bills (BUF-9.5) O/U 46.5

MME: Josh Allen $8.5k
  • Lamar Jackson’s stellar performance on Christmas leaves Josh Allen needing a standout performance to wrap up the league’s MVP vote 
  • Allen’s scored 24 pts or more in five of his last eight games 
  • He scored three touchdowns in the teams previous matchup 
  • Allen’s four passing touchdowns away from eclipsing 30 passing touchdowns for the fourth time in his career 
Cash: Breece Hall $6.3k
  • Buffalo allows the 3rd most pts to opposing RBs 
  • I like Hall’s upside with Buffalo particularly struggling with running backs in the passing game 
  • Buffalo allows nearly 5 receptions for 50 yards per game to RBs (allowed 2nd most receiving TDs to RBs) 
  • Breece Hall has caught 4 or more passes in 55% of his games this season 

Titans @ Jaguars (TEN-1) O/U 39.5

MME: Brian Thomas Jr $6.8k
  • Thomas rookie season hit another gear two and a half games ago when Mac Jones became the Jags starting QB 
  • In that span Thomas has been targeted from Jones 36 times 
  • Mac Jones last two starts Thomas has 19 receptions for 237 yards and three scores 

Cash: Chig Okonkwo $3.6k

  • Okonwo’s numbers from the five games Mason Rudolph’s starts account for 49% or more of his season totals 
  • 34 targets (54.8% of his season total) 
  • 26 receptions (55% of his season total)
  • 242 yards (55% of his season total) 
  • 51.2 pts on DK (49.4% of his season total)
  • He’s been targeted 21 times and caught 18 passes in the last two Rudolph starts 
  • Jacksonville ranks dead last in DVOA vs the Pass and vs TEs 

Panthers @ Bucs (TB-8) O/U 48.5 

MME: Jalen McMillian $4.6k
  • McMillan’s caught four or more passes in three straight 
  • Seeing 20 catching targets in that stretch and scoring four touchdowns
  • McMillian’s averaging 19.03 points on DraftKings in that span 
  • The Bucs for a third straight week will be without Cade Otton 
  • McMillian’s numbers in the last two games Otton missed (13 targets/10 receptions/2 TDs) 

Cash: Bucky Irving $6.7k 

  • There’s a case for a few names from this game in cash 
  • Evans, Baker, and Thielen all make a lot of sense to me this week 
  • Bucky Irving makes the most sense 
  • Carolina allows 24 more rushing yards per game on the ground than any other defense 
  • Irving torched the Panthers in their matchup to the tune of 180 total yards and a score 
  • The forecast is calling for rain tomorrow in Tampa, increasing the likelihood of a run heavy script 

Raiders @ Saints (LV-1.5) O/U 37.5 

MME: Ameer Abdullah $5.1k
  • Abdullah has been a PPR cheat code in recent Raiders games with Sincere McCormick not involved in the backfield snaps 
  • His last 3 without McCormick (who’s on IR 
  • 17 receptions 
  • 138 receiving yards/74 rushing yards 
  • 3 scores 
  • Scored 17.5 pts or more on DK 
Cash: Brock Bowers $6.7k
  • Bowers price continues to rise in DFS but I’d argue he’s still a value with O’Connell starting 
  • If you like at the WRs in this price range, none see the volume Bowers does in games played with O’Connell 
  • 42 targets in his last four with O’Connell 
  • Bowers has two 10 catch performances in that span 
  • All three of Bowers biggest games of the season have came in the last six games 

Cowboys @ Eagles (PHI-7.5) O/U 38.5 

MME: Devonta Smith $5.8k
  • Smith at this price tag, in a small slate, even with Pickett starting feels like a discount 
  • Last week only one of Pickett’s 24 throws was not to the duo of AJ Brown and Devonta Smith 
  • Smith’s seen 20 targets the last two weeks after only seeing 21 in his previous four

Cash: Brandin Cooks $4.6k 

  • This is a tough matchup and a slightly risky play for cash
  • But without CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Rush will need to find other targets for his 38 pass attempts per game over his last five
  • Cook’s modest eight targets and six receptions doesn’t seem like much, but he’s had success with Rush over the last few years 
  • Catching a TD pass in four of his last six with Rush 

Colts @ Giants (IND-7.5) O/U 40.5 

MME: Colts D $3.5k
  • Normally, I’d never recommend spending up on a defense, but this Giants offense has been rough in recent weeks 
  • NY’s offense has mustered only 36 points the last three weeks on offense 
  • Drew Lock’s turned the ball over 5 times in that span and taken eight sacks 
  • The Falcons D scored 25 pts against the Giants last week on DK 
Cash: Josh Downs $4.6k
  • It appears Anthony Richardson will start this Sunday in what is a must win game for the Colts playoff hopes 
  • If Richardson starts I like this play 
  • Downs scored 15 pts or more on DK in two of his last four starts with Richardson 
  • But this becomes a smash play if Joe Flacco starts for the Colts 
  • In Downs four games with Flacco this season 
  • 36 targets 
  • 29 receptions 
  • 61.8 pts on DK (15.45 ppg) 
  • NYG allow 1.8 touchdowns to game to opposing WRs 

Dolphins @ Browns (MIA-6.5) O/U 37.5 

MME: Jonnu Smith $5.7k
  • Smith would’ve landed in the cash game spot from this game if not for the news Tua is doubtful 
  • The entire Dolphins offense takes a hit if that happens 
  • Smith’s too involved in this Dolphins passing game to shy away from at this price 
  • His last 6 games 
  • 51 targets 
  • 43 receptions 
  • 5 TDs
  • Four games of 19.8 pts or more on DK 
  • Smith caught 8 passes on 10 targets in the previous two Skyler Thompson starts this season

Cash: Jerome Ford $5.9k 

  • Ford’s scored in consecutive games without Nick Chubb 
  • Scoring 18.4 pts or more in both 
  • I love his floor this week with DTR starting and Njoku already ruled out 
  • Last week with DTR at QB was Ford’s first game with five or more receptions and targets in ten games 
  • I’d be shocked if he doesn’t see at least that many targets with the Browns without David Njoku 

Packers @ Vikings (MIN-1.5) O/U 48.5 

MME: Dontayvion Wicks $3.9k 
  • Wicks has seen 19 targets over his last four games, before that he saw 17 targets his previous six 
  • His best game of the year came against Minnesota in their first matchup (78 yards and 2 scores) 
  • Minnesota ranks bottom five against opposing WR 1s, WR 2s, WR 3s, and rank last on DK vs WRs 
  • Vikings run zone at a high rate, Wicks and Reed are the Packers pass catchers who’ve excelled the most versus zone this season 
Cash: Jordan Addison $6.3k
  • You can make a case for Jefferson but I like saving the 2k on Addison 
  • Addison’s seen 8 or more targets in five of his last six games (6 targets in the other) 
  • 5 receiving touchdowns in that span with two 30 pt performances on DK 
  • The Packers are a zone heavy defense as well, Addison has been better in terms of fantasy pts per target versus zone, and his target rate is much closest to Jefferson versus zone, than compared to man   

 

Thank you for reading Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook (Week 17)! You can keep the conversation going by following and interacting with him on Twitter/X @KeithFlemming

Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9 pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays. This week’s show is below!

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Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email December 28, 2024
7 minutes read

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