Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!
Last week’s playbook included Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Rico Dowdle, and Jonnu Smith. With only three full NFL slates remaining let’s keep the boom plays coming! Good luck to everyone and Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays! I hope you enjoy this time with those you love.
Each week, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.
When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.
My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups. Good luck this week!
Let’s dive into Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook: Week 16
Rams @ Jets (LAR-3) O/U 46.5
It’s physically impossible for Puka Nacua to not do something cool pic.twitter.com/FdbLvsaoqJ
— Jackson Payne (@jackson5payne) December 13, 2024
MME: Aaron Rodgers $5.6k
- Rodgers has quietly scored 20+ points in back to back games
- He’s thrown multiple passing touchdowns in five of his last seven games
- The Rams allow the 13th most passing yards and the 7th most touchdowns per game to opposing QBs
Cash: Puka Nacua $8.0k
- Nacua’s becoming the best WR in football right before our eyes
- In the eight games since his return from injury he’s scored 17.3 pts or more in seven of them
- Caught seven or more passes in five of his last six (49 receptions in that span)
- 66 targets over his last six games
- Receiving TD in three of his last five
Eagles @ Commanders (PHI-3.5) O/U 45.5
Saquon Barkley needs 312 rushing yards to reach 2,000 for the season. His remaining games:
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 20, 2024
▪️ WAS (a)
▪️ DAL (h)
▪️ NYG (h)
Will he do it? pic.twitter.com/GC7ct7YTtZ
MME: Terry McLaurin $7.3k
- This is a really tough matchup for F1 McLaurin
- Eagles allows the fewest fantasy points on DK to opposing WRs and McLaurin only scored 2 points in his first matchup vs them
- BUT McLaurin’s scored 24.3 pts or more in his last three games
- He’s caught multiple touchdowns in three of his last six games
Cash: Saquon Barkley $8.3k
- Barkley’s coming off his worst game since Week 6
- Maybe that leads to lower ownership in what is a great matchup
- Commanders allow the 2nd most YPC at 4.97 and the 6th most rushing yards per game (110.36) to opposing RBs
- When these teams met back in WK 11 Barkley scored 36.8 pts, rushing for 146 yards on 26 carries with 2 TDs, and he also caught two passes for 52 yards
Giants @ Falcons (ATL-8.5) O/U 43.5
New QB1 Michael Penix Jr. to Drake London #Falcons pic.twitter.com/uMN2BosfSm
— Marc Raimondi (@marcraimondi) December 20, 2024
MME: Drake London $6.4K
- I expect Penix to look London’s way a lot in his first career NFL start
- London’s seen 7+ targets in 10 games this season, and 10+ targets in 6 games
- He caught Cousin’s first TD pass in 4 weeks last Sunday and scored 14.3 pts in a game the Falcons only threw the ball 17 times
- Before Cousins struggles the last month, London caught a TD in 6 of his first 9 games
Cash: Michael Penix $4.5k
- QBs at this price don’t come along often and I believe in Penix’s abilities
- Especially when he’s facing a D that just allowed Lamar to throw for 290 yards and 5 TDs with only 4 incompletions
- Giants give up an NFL high 1.93 tds per game to opposing QBs
- Penix ran a 4.5 40 at his pro day and this giants team allows the third most rushing yards to QBs (29 yards per)
- Falcons were one of the most pass heavy teams early in the season
- I expect them to get back to that with a QB who will open up the entire playbook with his arm strength and mobility
Cardinals @ Panthers (ARI-5) O/U 47.5
here comes James Conner https://t.co/cGS8oGLfmP
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 17, 2024
MME: Jalen Coker $4.2k
- Coker is a potential fantasy sleeper for next season
- And a great option this week with Xavier Leggett doubtful for this weeks game
- Coker due to injuries and working his way on the field more
- Has only seen 6 targets or more in 3 games, those also happen to be the only games he’s played 69% or more snaps
- In those 3 games
- 11 receptions
- 229 yards
- 2 TDs
- 48.9 pts scored on DK (16.3 ppg)
- Coker is questionable, if he misses this game, I’d pivot to Adam Thielen
Cash: James Conner $7.1k
- Conner finished with the second most fantasy points from weeks 15-18 last season despite a very tough fantasy schedule (Averaging 24.2 ppg in that stretch)
- Conner started this year’s fantasy playoffs with his second consecutive 20+ pt game
- He was the number 1 back in all of fantasy last week scoring 33.8 pts with his second rushing TD of the day putting him 3rd all time among Arizona RBs in rushing tds
- He’s scored 17.9 pts or more in 5/8
- Caught 3 or more passes in 6 straight (25 receptions in that span)
- And he faces an awful Panthers run D this week
- The Panthers allow 26 more rushing yards per game to opposing RBs than any team in the league
- They’re the only team to allow more than 5 yards per carry
- And they also allow the most TDs to opposing RBs on the ground with 1.07
- Smash play
Browns @ Bengals (CIN-8) O/U 46.5
After missing the first two days of practice this week with a hamstring injury, #Browns TE David Njoku returned to practice today. pic.twitter.com/eh4RMFp30p
— Camryn Justice (@camijustice) December 20, 2024
MME: David Njoku $5.2k
- The prospects of the Browns passing game took a big hit when Cleveland announced DTR would start this week vs the Bengals
- Except for when it comes to David Njoku
- Njoku caught 10 passes on 14 targets for 76 yards and a score in DTR’s only start this season
- Last season Njoku caught 19 passes on 31 targets for 161 yards in three DTR starts
Cash: Tee Higgins $6.8k
- If you would rather play Ja’Marr Chase I can’t argue that move but Higgins is almost 2k cheaper on DK
- Higgins has 6 touchdown receptions in his last seven games
- In that span he’s seen 65 targets
- Facing a Browns defense that allows over 15 yards per reception and the fifth most touchdowns per game to opposing WRs
Lions @ Bears (DET-6.5) O/U 47.5
If you’re following me on the @BettingPros app you already bet this
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) December 20, 2024
BUT why is D.J. Moore o5.5 rec STILL plus money (+112)
He’s smashed the over every game since Thomas Brown has taken over play-calling duties pic.twitter.com/URssh7ufOH
MME: D.J. Moore $5.8k
- I would have one of Moore or teammate Keenan Allen in most of your DFS lineups this week
- The Lions defense continues to lose more defenders by the week (16 defensive players placed on IR this season)
- Moore’s been a fantasy/dfs stud for the last month
- Over his last 4 games
- 39 targets
- 29 receptions
- 2 TDs
- 19.88 ppg on DK
- He’s also 8 carrie’s over his last 8 games for 52 yards
Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs $7.5k
- Sadly, the Lions lost David Montgomery for the season last week
- Gibbs played a season high in snaps as a result (75%) scoring 28.4 pts
- It was his 7th game playing 55% or more of the Lions offensive snaps
- A number he will reach this week vs the Bears
- In those games he’s averaging 22.54 pts
- Scoring 19 pts or more in 5/7
- 24.9 pts or more in 3/7
- This week he faces a Bears D that allows the second most rushing yards per game to RBs at the third most YPC
- Chicago is tied with the Panthers allowing the most rushing TDs per game to opposing RBs at 1.07
- The Bears allowed 5 rushing TDs the last two weeks vs the Vikings and 49ers, 3 to the Niners with their 4th and 5th RBs playing
Vikings @ Seahawks (MIN-3) O/U 42.5
Aaron Jones hits pay dirt to extend the @Vikings lead!
— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2024
📺: #CHIvsMIN on ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus & ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/aTSXgqeXio
MME: Aaron Jones $6.4k
- Jones feels like a slight discount at his price this week and could be low owned with so many expensive backs having great matchups
- He’s scored a rushing TD in three of his last four
- Averaging 17.25 ppg in that span
- RBs facing the Seahawks have scored a TD in three straight games
Cash: JSN $6.0k
- Hard to understand this price tag
- Vikings allow the most receptions and receiving yards per game to opposing WRs
- JSN over his last six games
- 52 targets
- 42 receptions
- 101 receiving yards per game
- 4 TDs
- 22.4 ppg on DraftKings
- Smash play?!
Patriots @ Bills (BUF-14) O/U 46.5
A WAR model I’ve been working on currently identifies Josh Allen as the most valuable player this year pic.twitter.com/Wlr3AsJuI7
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) December 20, 2024
MME: Josh Allen $8.7k
- Allen is on a heater
- Hit 3x his salary in four straight
- His last 3 games
- 7 passing TDs
- 6 rushing TDs
- 42.5 ppg on DK
Cash: Austin Hooper $3.1k
- Hooper’s seen 4 or more targets in 7/8
- Caught 3 or more passes in 7/8
- Caught a TD pass in 2/3
- Facing a NE defense who ranks bottom 14th in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns allowed to opposing TEs
Jaguars @ Raiders (LV-2) O/U 40.5
It's Brenton Strange szn. (shout out Penn State) pic.twitter.com/juDK0q4510
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 19, 2024
MME: Ameer Abdullah $4.6k
- PPR cheat core
- Abdullah over his last 6
- 23 targets
- 21 receptions
- Takeaway the two games McCormick was featured heavily in Raiders backfield
- 19 targets/18 receptions in those four games
- Jags allow 5th most receptions and the 3rd most yards to opposing RBs in the passing game
Cash: Brenton Strange $3.5k
- When playing 60% or more snaps this season he’s finished as a top-10 TE for the week in 4 of 5 games
- He saw 12 targets last week.
- Jones heading into last week was targeted TEs on 31% of his pass attempts this season
- Last week Jones targeted Strange on 26% of his pass attempts
- This week Strange plays the Raiders who allow the 4th most receptions and receiving yards to opposing TEs
49ers @ Dolphins (MIA-1) O/U 44.5
Most Yards After the Catch this Season:
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) December 20, 2024
🥇 Ja'Marr Chase – 688
🥈 De'Von Achane – 633
🥉 Khalil Shakir – 572 pic.twitter.com/SWZfPye8AL
MME: Brock Purdy $6.3k
- Last time we saw Brock Purdy start a game with a new RB making his first start against a tough defense, he went 20/25 for 325 yards and 2 TDs
- The 49ers are starting their fifth string RB this week
- I can’t imagine they rely on the run the way they normally do
- Dolphins were lit up by Aaron Rodgers two weeks ago
- It was Rodgers first and only 300+ yard performance in nearly three years
Cash: De’Von Achane $7.4K
- I wanted to suggest Malik Washington for this position but Achane is the safer play
- He’s scored 20+ points on DraftKings in seven of Tua’s eleven starts this season
- Jaylen Waddle looks doubtful for this game
- Last week with Waddle leaving the game early, Achane lined up as a reciever over 40% of the time
- He would go on to catch 7+ passes for the sixth time in games Tua starts
- Achane’s floor is probably 10 to 15 points on receiving alone
Thank you for reading Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook (Week 16)! You can keep the conversation going by following and interacting with him on Twitter/X @KeithFlemming
Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9 pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays. This week’s show is below!
The Daily Fix | Week 12 NFL DraftKings DFS Plays of The Week https://t.co/VhGdM5le7W
— Fantasy In Frames | Fantasy Football Content (@FantasyInFrames) November 23, 2024
