Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!
Each week, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.
When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.
My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups. Good luck this week!
Let’s dive into Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook: Week 15
Ravens @ Giants (BAL—16) O/U 42.5
“Only one team allows more rushing yardage after missed tackles than the New York Giants. And almost no one gains more yardage after missed tackles than Derrick Henry."
— Ravens Nation 𝙇𝙄𝙑𝙀 (@LIVERavenNation) December 13, 2024
– Sports Illustrated pic.twitter.com/7RcPJkAA1l
MME: Daniel Bellinger $2.8k
- Bellinger saw a huge increase in playing time last week with Theo Johnson placed on IR
- Before last week Bellinger’s highest snap share was 32%, with his highest target total and receptions for a game being one
- Last week he played 80% of snaps, saw 7 targets, catching 5 passes, and finished as TE12 for the week
- This week he faces a Ravens defense that allows the 10th most receptions and 5th most receiving yards per game to TEs
Cash: Derrick Henry $8.3k
- Henry’s price tag seems steep considering he’s only eclipsed 100 rushing yards once in his last four games, and hasn’t scored 20+ points in a game in that span
- The Giants in recent weeks lost their best LB and their best run defender in Dexter Lawrence
- With the Ravens coming off their bye this is Henry’s first game with Baltimore in the month of December
- Historically, December is when Henry feasts, among months in the NFL season December is the month Henry has his highest YPC, most touchdowns, and rushing yards
- Not exactly breaking news that tackling a player Henry’s size in the cold is not fun
Jets @ Jags (NYJ-3.5) O/U 40.5
Davante Adams in 7 games with the #Jets:
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) December 13, 2024
🏈 453 yards
🏈 11.3 yards per catch
🏈 3 TDs
🏈 23 1st downs
What have you thought about his performance so far, & would you want him back❓ pic.twitter.com/nqBojy9uzy
MME: Aaron Rodgers $5.4K
- Jags rank 31st against the pass on DK
- They’re dead last in DVOA vs Pass, 16th vs run
- Translation it’s easier to throw on Jax than it is to run
- Rodgers is coming off his 1st 300+ passing game in nearly 3 years
- He’s scored 15 pts or more in 7 of his last 8 games
- His highest point total in that stretch was last week
- Last week Breece Hall didn’t play and the Jets are looking like they’re getting ready to shut down Hall for the season
- Meaning the passing game again will be the focal point of this offense this week
- Both of his star WRs, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams are better vs man than zone
- Jags run man defense at one of the highest rates in the NFL
Cash: Davante Adams $6.9k
- As I mentioned above Adams excels vs man defense
- His target rate goes from 24% vs zone to 34% vs man
- He’s seen 54 targets in his last five games, with 11 or more in 4/5
- The Jags allow the sixth most receptions per game to WRs and the fourth most receiving yards
Cowboys @ Panthers (CAR-3) O/U 43.5
Adam Thielen lulling the defense to sleep lol pic.twitter.com/FIbU9cb8Mn
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) December 11, 2024
MME: Rico Dowdle $6.1k
- Rico Dowdle since Week 13 among all NFL running backs (min 20% of carries):
- 40 attempts (4th)
- 243 rushing yards (1st)
- 6.1 yards per carry (6th)
- 183 yards after contact (1st)
- 10 forced missed tackles (4th)
- 9 carries of 10+ yards (1st)
- This week he faces a Panthers D who’s dead last vs the run
- Carolina allows nearly 20 more rushing yards per game to RBs than any team in the NFL
Cash: Adam Thielen $5.4k
- For the record I love playing Dowdle and Thielen in cash or multi entry, they’re two of the best values on DraftKings this week
- Thielen entered last week having scored 20+ fantasy pts in 9 of his 21 starts with Bryce Young at QB
- Thielen again scored 20+ pts with Young last week (2nd consecutive week)
- His last two games
- 21 targets
- 17 receptions
- 201 receiving yards
- 46.1 pts scored on DK
- Thielen’s seen 7 or more targets in 13 of the 22 games with Young
- Guaranteed volume vs a bad secondary
- Cowboys allow the 8th most receptions to WRs
- Over their last 3 games Dallas has allowed 27 receptions for 448 yards and 3 scores on 36 targets to opposing teams #1 WRs
Commanders @ Saints (WSH-7.5) O/U 43.5
"Brian Robinson Week" … This time it counts. pic.twitter.com/fIKZRCkYx4
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 11, 2024
MME: Juwan Johnson $3.4K
- Saints placed their TE Taysom Hill on IR two weeks ago
- Johnson in his first game without Hill finished as TE3
- He saw 5 targets, caught 4 passes for 50 yds and a TD
- Johnson’s seen 12 targets his last two games
Cash: Brian Robinson $6.2k
- Robinson rushed for 103 yards on 16 carries and a TD, his 4 RZ (highest total since week 8) in his last game Week 13
- A game Washington was without Austin Ekeler
- Robinson enters this week rested off a bye, without Ekeler again
- Facing a Saints D allowing the 4th most fantasy pts to opposing RBs
- No team allows more ypc to opposing RBs than the Saints (5.3)
- Robinson averages 4.6 ypc on the season
Bengals @ Titans (CIN-5) O/U 46.5
Tight Ends:
— Scott Schlegel (@ImScottSchlegel) December 12, 2024
Tier 1: Kelce, Gray, David Njoku, Juwan Johnson, Trey McBride
Upgrades: Njoku, Ferguson, Chig Okonkwo, Noah Fant
Downgrades: Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Mike Gesicki, Dalton Kincaid pic.twitter.com/AGvRqMC1qS
MME: Chig Okonkwo $2.9k
- This play is all about upside when you consider the Bengals issues with TEs and Okonkwo’s surge in targets recently
- The Bengals allow the 5th most receptions (5.92) and 4th most receiving yards (64.38) per game to opposing TEs
- Okonkwo’s seen 4+ targets in six of his last eight games
Cash: Joe Burrow $7.3k
- Burrow’s been utter worldly this season with 33 passing touchdowns to just 6 interceptions
- His last five games
- 18 passing touchdowns
- 342 passing ypg
- 30.54 ppg on DraftKings
- Statically the Titans look like a decent defense against the pass, but remember they play in the AFC South, faced Malik Willis and Tyler Huntley instead of Tua and Love, plus played three rookie QBs this season
- But they’ve still been torched by top level QBs this season
- Daniels 206 passing yards 3 TDs
- Allen 323 passing yards 2 TDs
- Goff 3 TDs on 15 attempts
Chiefs @ Browns (KC-4) O/U 43.5
Xavier Worthy is quietly heating up 🔥 pic.twitter.com/yW1WKZsl2t
— Drue Tranquill Burner (@alyssatranquill) December 14, 2024
MME: Xavier Worthy $5.1k
- After only seeing 15 targets over his first four game this season
- Worthy’s seen 24 targets over his last four games and 3 rush attempts
- He’s caught four or more passes for 40 or more receiving yards in four straight
- Worthy’s yet to have a monster game, but this week’s matchup is a great chance for his breakout performance
- Cleveland’s allowed the third most passing plays of 20+ yards (48) and the fifth most passing plays of 40+ yards (9)
- In just their last five games the Browns three receptions of 65 yards or more to Quentin Johnston, MVS, and Marvin Mims
Cash: Jordan Akins $2.7k
- For the record any of the Browns passing game is a good value for cash this week
- I like Winston, Jeudy, and Moore this week as well
- Adkins is only a viable option if Njoku misses the game Sunday with the Chiefs
- Njoku was still not practicing as of Thursday, leaving his status in serious doubt
- The Chiefs are one of the worst defenses in the NFL vs TEs allowing 6.62 receptions and 78 yards per game to opposing TEs this season
- Cleveland is going to throw the ball with Winston at QB, in the games started by Winston they’re averaging 41.6 pass attempts per game and throwing it on 65% of their offensive plays
Dolphins @ Texans (HOU-3) O/U 46.5
Tyreek Hill is HEATING UP!
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 13, 2024
Week 13 – 6 REC + 83 Yards + TD
Week 14 – 10 REC + 115 Yards + TD
4 Touchdowns in the last 5 weeks 🔥 pic.twitter.com/oH0Csn4HZ8
MME: Tyreek Hill $7.4k
- The cheetah in a dome for under $7.5k…. sign me up
- It took a few games after Tua’s return for him and Tyreek to get on the same page but they’re thriving now
- Hill’s scored a TD in 4/5
- His last two games
- 23 targets
- 16 receptions
- 198 yards 2 scores
- 51.4 pts scored on DK
- Hill is 8th in first read targets over the last month
- Texans are a pass funnel
- Allowing 6th most pts to WRs
Cash: Jonnu Smith $5.4K
- Smith’s last 4 games
- 34 targets
- 28 receptions
- 345 yards
- 92.5 dk pts (23.1 ppg)
- This is where stats can be misleading
- Texans across most metrics are one of the better teams vs TEs
- But if you look at their schedule they’ve played alot of teams who don’t throw to their TEs
- Just in recent weeks
- Evan Engram 7 receptions
- Chig Okonkwu 70 yard touchdown
- Cowboys TEs combined for 11 receptions for over 100 yards
- Sam Laporta 66 yards and a touchdown
Colts @ Broncos (Den-4.5) O/U 44.5
WR's with INSANE matchups this week:
— xEP Network | Projections & Analytics (@xEP_Network) December 13, 2024
For Yards:
Malik Nabers
Khalil Shakir
Davante Adams
Terry McLaurin
Jakobi Meyers
For Receptions:
Ladd McConkey
Garrett Wilson
Josh Downs
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Courtland Sutton pic.twitter.com/13iHP2TG4N
MME: DeVaughn Vele $4.2k
- Vele is coming off his worst game in a month where he caught only one pass on four targets
- But that was versus a Browns defense that runs a lot of man
- This week he faces a Colts defense that runs zone at one of the highest rates in the NFL
- Vele’s target rate goes up 6% vs zone compared to man, with his fantasy pts per target up .76 per target vs zone compared to man
- His target rate vs zone is higher than Courtland Sutton
- He scored 10+ points in his previous three games, all versus zone heavy teams, with only one touchdown
Cash: Josh Downs $5.1k
- The PPR king is on track to return this week
- Fantasy pts per route over .85 vs man and zone
- Target rate is over 24% over both as well
- Patrick Surtain rarely lines up the slot
- Downs lines up in the slot 72.6% of the time
- He’s seen 7+ targets in 7/9 games, 9+ in 6/9
- 14.2 pts or more on DK in 7/9 games, 19.4 pts or more in 4/9
Patriots @ Cardinals (ARI-6) O/U 46.5
Drake Maye is the 5th QB since 1950 with over 1,500 passing yards, more than ten passing touchdowns, and over 300 rushing yards through his first 8 career starts.
— Foxborough Fellas Podcast (@FoxFellasPod) December 13, 2024
Can you guess the four others? pic.twitter.com/Uun0tb9hgA
MME: Drake Maye $5.6k
- Maye’s scored 20 points or more in two of his last three games
- He’s averaging 5.45 ppg in rushing alone over his last six games
- Arizona overall has been good at preventing opposing QBs from running on them
- But early in the season Josh Allen rushed for 39 yards and 2 TDs and Jayden Daniels rushed for 47 yards 1 TD
Cash: Trey McBride $6.0k
- McBride’s seen a ridiculous 41 targets over his last three games
- 31 receptions and 63.9 points scored on DK in that span
- The Pats statistically are a good defense versus TEs
- But several good TEs have had good fantasy performances against them
- Kittle 4/45 TD
- Jonnu Smith (2 gms) 15/149 TD
Bills @ Lions (DET-2.5) O/U 54.5
Week 14 first-read target share leaders per @FantasyPtsData
— Jacob Wayne (@wayne_bets) December 12, 2024
Calvin Ridley – 57.1%
Jordan Addison – 52.9%
Puka Nacua – 52%
Ja'Marr Chase – 50%
Brian Thomas Jr. – 47.4%
D.J. Moore – 44.4%
Amari Cooper – 44%
Adam Thielen – 40.9%
Dontayvion Wicks – 40%
A.J. Brown – 40% pic.twitter.com/neFfk8hXff
MME: Amari Cooper $5.3k
- Copper’s coming off a game where he saw more targets (14), than he did in his first four games with the Bills (13)
- He’s playing a Lions defense that runs man defense at one of the highest rates in the league
- Cooper has a 27.8% target rate vs man defense this season
- But the last two seasons his target rate versus man was over 30%
- The Lions allow the 6th most passing plays of 20+ yards this season and the 10th most passing plays of 40+ yards
Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs $7.5k or David Montgomery $7.0k
- Either Lions RB is a great play this week
- Per PFF the Lions have the biggest advantage in terms of offensive line versus defensive line this week
- It’s one of the largest advantages I can remember at 80%
- Only six teams allow more yards per carry to opposing RBs than the Bills (4.7 ypc)
- The Lions have 34 or more rush attempts in seven straight games
Bucs @ Chargers (LAC-3) O/U 45.5
The Buccaneers use the most zone coverage and the highest rate over Cover 3.
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) December 13, 2024
👀Quentin Johnston leads the team in fantasy points per route against zone but is fourth on the Chargers in expected fantasy points per route via @FantasyPtsData.
↔️Against Cover 3, Johnston has okay… pic.twitter.com/dOd3x2ayg3
MME: Quentin Johnston $5.0k
- Bucs run Cover 3 (43%) of the time (5th most)
- QJ averages 2.93 Yards Per Route Run versus Cover 3, among WRs that’s 11th best in the NFL
- 24 targets his last four games
- TD in four of his last six
Cash: Rachaad White $5.8k
- Bucky Irving is questionable and coming off a game where he played his lowest snap % of the season (14.5%)
- The Chargers allow the 8th most receptions per game to opposing RBs
- Irving among RBs, ranks 7th in receiving yards, 6th in receptions, and third in route participation
- White’s scored 8 TDs in his last seven games
Steelers @ Eagles (PHI-5.5) O/U 43.5
Saquon Barkley on being 483 rushing yards away from breaking the all-time single-season record set by Eric Dickerson
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) December 13, 2024
”I know that he has the record. It’s been there for 40 years. Obviously I’ve heard the talk. I know the number. The mindset is don’t be scared of it. Embrace it.… pic.twitter.com/xhneDNDw6i
MME: Saquon Barkley $8.6k
- Barkley appears to have one of his toughest matchups of the season versus Pittsburgh this week
- But per PFF the Eagles o-line has the 2nd biggest advantage versus the Steelers d-line, of any o-line versus d-line for Week 15
- Last week Barkley eclipsed 100 rushing yards for the fourth straight game (averaging 158 rushing ypg in that span)
- Last week was also his fourth straight game with 20+ rush attempts
- I expect Barkley to be low owned due to his price and Pittsburgh ranking 10th on DK vs RBs
Cash: Grant Calcaterra $3.5k
- With Goedert placed on IR, Calcaterra is another lower priced TE with a real opportunity in Week 15
- He’s scored 8.5 pts or more in four of his five games this season without Goedert playing
- The Steelers allow the 4th most targets to TEs at 8.31 per and the 7th most receptions at 5.77 per game
- In the Steelers last three games, excluding their Thursday night snow game vs Cleveland, TEs have been targeted 33 times, catching 25 passes in those three games.
Thank you for reading Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook (Week 15)! You can keep the conversation going by following and interacting with him on Twitter/X @KeithFlemming
Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9 pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays. This week’s show is below!
The Daily Fix | Week 12 NFL DraftKings DFS Plays of The Week https://t.co/VhGdM5le7W
— Fantasy In Frames | Fantasy Football Content (@FantasyInFrames) November 23, 2024
