Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!
Each week, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.
When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.
My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups. Good luck this week!
Let’s dive into Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook: Week 14
Saints @ Giants (NO-5.5) O/U 40.5
Alvin Kamara is going to do nasty things to this Giants defense.
— ZirkClaus❄️ (@Zirksee) December 7, 2024
MME: Saints D $2.9k
- Six week ago the Giants lost their best offensive lineman Andrew Thomas
⁃ They’ve allowed 26 sacks in the six game since Thomas went on IR
⁃ Saints have 12 sacks over their last five games
⁃ NO’s opponents have only scored 52 points combined over their last 3 games
Cash: Alvin Kamara $8.0k
- The Giants lost Dexter Lawrence early in their Thanksgiving matchup with Dallas last week
⁃ The Giants went on to allow 122 rushing yards and a score to Rico Dowdle
⁃ Dowdle’s first 100 yard rushing game and rushing touchdown this season
⁃ NY’s allowed 155 rushing yards per game over their last 3 games
⁃ The Saints will be without Taysom Hill, meaning Kamara will see a majority of red zone snaps this week
⁃ Kamara among RBs ranks 1st in expected fantasy points, weighted opportunities, receptions, receiving yards, and target share
Browns @ Steelers (PIT-6.5) O/U 43.5
still thinking about @jerryjeudy's epic night 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/FYmvEHvfTO
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) December 5, 2024
MME: Jerry Jeudy $5.7k
- It’s a tough matchup with Jeudy facing Joey Porter Jr. when he’s lined up outside (around 65% of the time)
- But he scored 14.5 pts in a snow storm versus Pittsburgh just two weeks ago
- Jeudy’s last three games
⁃ 30 targets
⁃ 21 receptions
⁃ 462 receiving yards
⁃ 87.8 points on DK
Cash: Elijah Moore $4.8k
- one of the best values on DK this week in terms of volume
- Particularly with Tillman out again
- Moore’s last three games
⁃ 27 targets
⁃ 17 receptions
⁃ 45.9 points on DK
Falcons @ Vikings (MIN-5.5) O/U 45.5
Drake London stats in 2024:
— 𝙁𝙖𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙈𝙪𝙨𝙚 (@ATLFalconsMuse) December 6, 2024
•796 yards
•6 touchdowns (tied 8th)
•8 games with 6+ catches (tied 1st)
•8 games with 60+ receiving yards (tied 2nd)
•Only 2 drops all season#ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/mXNAqD9Wjk
MME: Drake London $6.4K
- this is a great play for cash or multi entries
- Vikings rank 32nd on DK vs WRs
- London saw over a 50% first read target share last week
- London has seen 37 targets over his last three games
Cash: TJ Hockenson $4.3k
- Hockenson has played 70% of snaps for the Vikings in consecutive games after only playing 48% or less in his first 3 games back from injury
- His target rate is up to 26%
- I have a feeling he’s going to have his 3rd game scoring 15 pts or more on DK in his last 5 this week
- Falcons overall are good versus TEs but they’ve allowed
⁃ 12 receptions in two games vs Cade Otton
⁃ 4 for 65 to Noah Fant
⁃ 7 for 71 to Jake Ferguson
Raiders @ Bucs (TB-6.5) O/U 46.5
Finally getting in the weeds on Brock Bowers and I am floored, we may never see a player like this again. So many people are going to screw up in the draft trying to find another one.
— Max Toscano (@maxtoscano1) December 6, 2024
He might be the Aaron Donald of Tight Ends with how he plays at his size. pic.twitter.com/MJdzJ29kyV
MME: Brock Bowers $6.5k
- Last 3 games
⁃ 40 targets
⁃ 27 receptions (2 carries)
⁃ 294 receiving yards 2 TDs - This week he faces a Bucs D who’s 27th vs TEs on DK
- Bucs allow 5.5 receptions to TEs
- At 12.12 YPR (highest in NFL)
Cash: Bucky Irving $6.6k
- make sure Irving is a full go for this game but if he is I’m still rolling with him
- Four weeks ago 10 touches 6.4 pts on DK
- Three weeks ago 16 touches 17.7 pts
- Two weeks ago 18 touches 27.1 pts
- Last week 28 touches 30.3 pts
- Raiders allow over 5 receptions to RBs per game/Irving 22 receptions over his last 5
- Irving among RBs
⁃ 6th yards per touch
⁃ 3rd in juke rate
⁃ 11th evading tackles
⁃ 12th breakaway run rate
⁃ 3rd yards created per touch
⁃ 17th in rushing yds despite being 38th opportunity share and 28th in carries
Panthers @ Eagles (PHI-13.5) O/U 45.5
🚨🚨THIS IS INSANE🚨🚨
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 2, 2024
ADAM THIELEN WITH ONE OF THE BEST CATCHES YOU WILL EVER SEE.
😱😱😱😱😱😱
HOW THE HELL DID HE DO THIS. pic.twitter.com/whfjTduy6o
MME: Adam Thielen $5.3k
- Thielen is coming off a monster game scoring 23.9 pts on DK
- He played 71% of snaps, a week after playing 61% in his return from IR
- He was playing 90% of snaps before the injury
- Thielen’s now scored 20+ pts on 9 of 21 games with Bryce Young at QB
Cash: Saquon Barkley $9.0k
- In his last 7 games
⁃ 8 TDs
⁃ 6 games of 100+ rushing yds
⁃ 1,017 rushing yards total in that span - 36 pts or more on DK in 3 of his last 4
- Facing a Car D that ranks dead last on DK vs RBs
- They allow the must rushing yds per game to opposing RBs by almost 20 yds
- At the 5th highest YPA 4.89
- And the most TDs per game 1.25
Jags @ Titans (TEN-3.5) O/U 40.5
I’m all the way back in on Will Levis*pic.twitter.com/Jlacequ4Ci
— Dylan Holt (@DylanHolt_) December 2, 2024
MME: Will Levis $5.0k
- I can’t believe I’m saying this but I like Levis in multi entry and cash game DFS lineups this week
- He’s scored 16 points or more on DK in four straight and 5 of his last 6 starts overall
- Facing a Jags defense who’s awful versus the pass
- Jax allows the most passing yards per game, most passing touchdowns per game, most passing plays of 20+ yards (56), most passing plays of 40+ yards (10), and the highest opposing passer rating by nearly ten points
Cash: Calvin Ridley $5.7k
- Jax allows over 13 receptions for 185 yards per game to opposing WRs
- Remember the stat above about Jax and their knack for giving up huge passing plays
- Ridley ranks 1st in air yards, 3rd air yards share, 4th in target depth, and 3rd in deep targets
- They also run man defense at the highest rate in the NFL
- Ridley’s target rate is 29.9% vs man, 18.9% vs zone
Jets @ Dolphins (MIA-6) O/U 44.5
📊 Tua Tagovailoa has been named the QB with the best touch and timing in the NFL by @espn
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) December 4, 2024
"[Tua] delivers the ball with both pace and touch… Tua Tagovailoa has completed 77.3% of his throws and been off target only 8.9% of the time. Both are the best in the league." #GoFins pic.twitter.com/qwmfHN1Leo
MME: Tyreek Hill $7.1k
- Sauce Gardner has been ruled out of this game
- Jets play man defense at a very high rate
- Hill’s targeted 7% more when facing man compared to zone
- It took Hill and Tua to get back on the same page after Tua returned five games ago
- But over his last 3 games, Hill’s seen 23 targets and scored 19.1 points or more on DK in 2/3
- Hill’s scored a TD in three of his last four
Cash: Tua Tagovaiola $6.3k
- Speaking Tua, he feels like one of the best values on the board this week, especially with Sauce out
- Tua’s last three games
⁃ 9 passing touchdowns
⁃ 970 passing yards
⁃ 83.8 points scored on DK (27.9 ppg)
⁃ 40.6 pass attempts per game, with two of the three games being Miami wins by double digit points
Seahawks @ Cardinals (ARI-2.5) O/U 44.5
Through the wins and the losses, there is one player on the #AZCardinals offense that continues to show up every single game.
— Andy Kwong 🏈 (@akwong31) December 1, 2024
11 games:
73 catches
781 receiving yards
1 rushing TD
Trey McBride#Birdgang pic.twitter.com/IuUapxG9A9
MME: JSN $6.3k
- JSN outgained DK in last 3
- DK was WR28 (7-70-0), WR35 (4-59-0) & WR38 (4-66-0)
- In Wk 12 vs ARI, JSN had 25% target share
- Catching 6-of-7 for 77 & a TD
Cash: Trey McBride $6.1k
- 27 targets the last two weeks
- 49.9 pts scored on DK despite not scoring a TD
- Vs Seattle two weeks ago 12 catches for 133 yards
Bills @ Rams (BUF-3.5) O/U 49.5
I've criticized Rams RB Kyren Williams' explosiveness this season.
— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) December 4, 2024
However, his ability to create and make something out of nothing – especially behind the LOS is underrated.
Many RBs take this outside. Williams cuts back while maintaining speed and picks up 10 yards. pic.twitter.com/wu1jh8vpRK
MME: Khalil Shakir $5.9k
- Rams run zone on defense at a top-5 rate in the NFL
- Shakir man/zone splits
⁃ Target rate 13%/31.7%
⁃ Target separation 1.57/3.02 - Shakir’s last 5 games
⁃ 45 targets
⁃ 33 receptions
Cash: Kyren Williams $7.3k
- Buffalo allows the 3rd most YPA in the NFL at 4.9 YPC
- In what is a must win for the Rams
- The easiest way for them to win this game is to lean on Kyren, keep Buffalo’s offense off the field, and slow down Buffalo’s great pass rush
Bears @ 49ers (SF-4) O/U 43.5
Caleb Williams’ rookie pace:
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) November 29, 2024
3,700 passing yards
20 passing TD’s
7 INT’s
The only other QB’s in NFL HISTORY to post 3,700+ passing yards, 20+ passing TD’s, & 10 or fewer INT’s as a rookie:
⁃ Justin Herbert
⁃ CJ Stroud
Telling on yourself if you call this man “a bust.” pic.twitter.com/OFbtQtULeV
MME: Isaac Guerendo $5.4K
- CMC and Mason both placed on IR this week
- It’s Guerendo time in SF
- Guerendo leads the 49ers backfield in YPC at 5.9 per rush attempt
- In the two games this season with 10+ carries his stat line is 24 carries for 184 yards and a touchdown
- SF is also in a must win situation and the easiest way to move the ball on the Bears is thru your run game
Cash: Caleb Williams $5.6k
- Caleb Williams since Thomas Brown took over play calling duties 3 weeks ago
⁃ 5th on DK among QBs in ppg
⁃ 5 TDs/0 INTs
⁃ 39 pass attempts per game
⁃ 827 passing yards (275.6 per)
⁃ Biggest thing for me is the 142 rushing yards (nearly 5 points per game on DK with his legs) - Bears will be without Roschon Johnson and potentially D’Andre Swift, meaning they will rely on Williams even more this week
- 49ers have been ravaged by injuries on defense, they only started 3 players on defense who started last years Super Bowl, on a team that returned all 11 starters, and one of them (Fred Warner), is playing with a dislocated ankle
Thank you for reading Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook (Week 14)! You can keep the conversation going by following and interacting with him on Twitter/X @KeithFlemming
Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9 pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays. This week’s show is below!
The Daily Fix | Week 12 NFL DraftKings DFS Plays of The Week https://t.co/VhGdM5le7W
— Fantasy In Frames | Fantasy Football Content (@FantasyInFrames) November 23, 2024
