Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!
My apologies for missing last week! I was in Vegas with my father and a few of my best friends. I’m going to make up for missing last week by providing more information than normal on each of my plays. I hope it pays off!
Each week, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.
When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.
My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups.
Let’s dive into Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook: Week 12
Bucs @ Giants (TB-6) O/U 41.5
Buccaneers “situational” running back, Bucky Irving. pic.twitter.com/kydrRtuMGJ
— JC Cornell (@CornellNFL) November 20, 2024
MME: Tyrone Tracy $6.0k
- Coming off of back to back games playing 72% or snaps or more with a healthy Devin Singletary.
- In those last two games he saw 6 RZ touches, he’d seen a combined 4 his previous 8 games
- This season in the 5 games Tracy’s seen at least 15 touches (a number he’s hit 3 games in a row)
- He’s averaging 16.6 ppg and scored a TD in 3/5
- Bucs allow the 3rd most receptions per game and the most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (Tracy played WR in college before converting to an RB)
Cash: Bucky Irving $5.3k
- TB has faced a top 8 rush defense in 6 of their 10 games. 2 of the other 4 were against ATL, who isn’t a terrible rush defense by any means.
- Bucky Irving vs NON top 8 rush defenses
- Vs ATL: 9 att, 44 yds
- Vs NO: 14 att, 81 yds
- Vs ATL: 9 att, 44 yds (again lol)
- Vs WAS: 9 att, 62 yds
- The Giants are one of the WORST rush defenses (28th DVOA vs Run) in the entire league. This season, they’ve allowed
- The HIGHEST ypc (5.15) to RB
- The MOST 20+ yd rushes in the entire NFL
- 9 different RBs to have 8+ att and 4.7+ ypc
Chiefs @ Panthers (KC-10.5) O/U 42.5
Fire up your Kareem Hunt https://t.co/fW3MUda55B
— Jason Moore (@jasonffl) November 22, 2024
MME: Ja’Tavion Sanders $3.4k
- KC is 32nd on DK vs TEs
- KC allows the most receptions (6.5) and receiving yds (74.30) to TEs
- Sanders played 69% or more of the Panthers offensive snaps and ran routes on 66% or more of the team’s passing plays in five of their last six games
- He’s finished top-15 at the position four of his last five games
- Sanders scored 9.9 pts or more during this stretch against NO, ATL, and Wash who all ranked in the middle of the league in fantasy pts allowed to TEs, he scored 8.8 pts versus the Giants stingiest defense vs TEs in his last game played
Cash: Kareem Hunt $5.7k
- Pacheco will not come off IR meaning another week of Hunt as the alpha back in KC
- 14 carries or more in 7 straight
- 17 pts or more on DK in 4/7
- Car ranks 32nd on DK vs RBs
- Car allows a league worse 133 yards per game and 1.4 TDs per game to opposing RBs
Cowboys @ Commanders (WSH-10.5) O/U 45.5
"Inside the 10 yard line, Brian Robinson has 15 carries… that's the 5th most in the NFL… keep in mind he's only played 7.5 games."
— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) November 22, 2024
Brian Robinson Jr. is a Top-10 RB this week taking on the Dallas Cowboys 🚀 pic.twitter.com/XcZMOj67M1
MME: Luke Schoonmaker $2.6k
- Jake Ferguson has been ruled out this week
- Schoonmaker is coming off a game where his 10 targets nearly equaled his 11 targets he previously had seen for the season entering last week’s game
- Schoonmaker is averaging more receiving yards per game in his two career starts than any of Jake Ferguson’s three seasons with the Cowboys
Cash: Brian Robinson $5.6k
- Dallas allows the 2nd most rushing yards per game in the NFL
- The Cowboys have allowed 8 rushing TDs in their last four games
- Robinsons scored double digit pts in 7/8 games played this season
- He’s seen multiple RZ carries in every game he’s played this season
Patriots @ Dolphins (MIA-7.5) O/U 46.5
This remains one of my favorite Drake Maye throws.
— Pats Buzz (@PatsBuzz) November 23, 2024
Absolute laser beam. 🎯pic.twitter.com/07FkwPI1vZ
MME: Drake Maye $5.5k
- Maye’s scored 18.7 pts or more in 4 of his 5 full games played
- He’s averaging 5.1 pts per game with his legs
- The Dolphins allow 4th fewest rushing yds per game to QBs, but Anthony Richardson rushed for 56 yds against Miami earlier this season
- Drake Maye is averaging 238 passing yards and 40 rushing yards per game in his five full starts this season.
- QBs with 230+ passing and 40+ rushing yards/game in a season in NFL history:
- Josh Allen
- Lamar Jackson
- Jalen Hurts
- Cam Newton
- Kyler Murray
- Mike Vick
- Randall Cunningham
Cash: De’Von Achane $7.5k
- Achane with Tua is a cheat code in DFS
- He’s played in 6 games that Tua started this season
- He’s averaging 23.6 ppg in those games
- Achane has 37 receptions in the six games started by Tua, compared to 9 receptions in the four games he’s played without Tua
- 13.10 ppg receiving on DK in games Tua starts
- He’s also averaging 13.8 rush attempts per game in Tua starts with 13 RZ carries
- The Dolphins opponent the Patriots are one of 9 teams in the NFL who’s allowed 1400 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs this season
Titans @ Texans (HOU-8) O/U 40.5
Nico Collins has an elite matchup against the Titans' zone coverage
— PFF HOU Texans (@PFF_Texans) November 22, 2024
Collins has been one of the most productive WRs against zone, ranking 1st in yards per route run. Meanwhile, Tennessee runs zone coverage at the 8th highest rate in the NFL pic.twitter.com/KDjUT6RyUJ
MME: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $4.1k
- 5 TDs in his last six games
- Since the Titans traded Hopkins in Week 8, Westbrook’s played 90% of snaps or more in each game
- He’s facing a Texans D that just allowed Cooper Rush to throw for 350 passing yards
- The Texans vs WRs ranks 11th in yards allowed per, 7th in yards per reception, and is tied with the Ravens for the most TDs per game allowed to opposing WRs (1.45 per)
Cash: Nico Collins $7.6k
- He’s averaging more ppg this season than ARSB and Jefferson but their $500 and $700 more on DK this week
- Collins in his return last week only played 47% of the snaps, but still saw 7 targets in a game the Texans controlled throughout
- If not for a holding call he would have had a 77 yard touchdown reception on his first play back
- The Texans are back at home where Collins has been sensational this year
- He’s ran 82 routes at home this season, seen 27 targets, caught 22 passes, for 364 yards and 3 scores
- This includes the Buffalo game where he ran 5 routes before being injured but still caught 2 passes for 78 yards and a score
- The Titans are a good secondary, but so was Chicago, the team the Texans played week 2 where Collins caught 8 passes for 135 yards and a score
- The Titans just put lockdown corner Sneed on IR
Lions @ Colts (DET-7.5) O/U 49.5
Is Anthony Richardson worth a second look?
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) November 23, 2024
Over the las decade only Allen, Mahomes and vintage Watson had more top-5 finishes. pic.twitter.com/5hSGrFJt9H
MME: Anthony Richardson $5.6k
- Last week Richardson regained the Colts starting QB job
- He scored a season high 29.1 pts on DK in his first game back at the helm
- Accounting for 300 total yards and 3 scores (2 on the ground)
- The Lions run man defense at one of the highest rates in the NFL
- Giving QBs the opportunity to run more with defenders backs turned to the QB
- This season QBs you wouldn’t consider “running QBs” have had a lot of success on the ground
- Baker 34 rushing yds TD
- Sam Darnold 39 rushing yds
- Mason Rudolph 29 rushing yds TD
- Kyler and Geno combined for 83 yds rushing
- Richardson has rushed for 274 yards and 3 TDs this season
Cash: Josh Downs $6.2k
- Josh Downs ranks 18th in total targets in the NFL this season
- He is 12th in YAC & Receptions. He averages 0.55 fantasy points per route run which is 13th
- He is ranked 1st in route win rate vs man coverage which Detroit runs man coverage 43% of the time
- Per PFF he has the 2nd best WR/CB matchup for Week 12
- Much has been made about how Flacco is better for Down’s value in fantasy, but in AK15’s last two starts Downs has scored 44.6 pts on DK, caught 9 passes for 193 yds and 2 scores
Vikings @ Bears (MIN-3.5) O/U 39.5
Rome Odunze saw an uptick in usage under the new OC last week. I’m intrigued. https://t.co/OkHq0Z2XvD
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 22, 2024
MME T.J. Hockenson $4.2k
- Hockenson has yet to exceed 50% of offensive snaps since he season debut three weeks ago
- Josh Oliver missing this game could change that (he’s yet to practice this week)
- Week 9:
- Oliver: 41
- Hockenson: 33
- Week 10:
- Oliver: 57
- Hockenson: 39
- Week 11:
- Oliver: 41
- Hockenson: 35
- With Oliver out of the mix, Hockenson said himself that he wouldn’t be surprised to see his workload increase on Sunday.
- Hockenson will face a Chicago defense that allows 5 receptions a game to opposing TE’s. Against the Bears last season, Hockenson exceeded this line in 2/2 games, averaging 5.5 receptions per game.
- The easiest way to attack a very good Bears pass defense is with a team’s TE
Cash: Rome Odunze $4.8k
- Odunze in his first start with new OC in Thomas Brown saw his second highest target total of the season (10)
- His first game that him Allen and Moore played where he was targeted the most of the 3
- It was also just the second game since week 3 that he played more than 80% of the snaps
- This week he faces a Vikings D that against opposing WRs
- 2nd most receptions per game 14.10
- 3rd most yards per game 184.4
- 8th most receiving TDs per game 1.10
Broncos @ Raiders (DEN-6) O/U 41.5
Every Bo Nix pass attempt of 20+ air yards as a Denver Bronco.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2024
Giddy up https://t.co/SCXH5kAmPv pic.twitter.com/TnC6YyOvNr
MME: Bo Nix $6.3k
- Nix is currently projected to be the 11th most owned QB and I have no idea why it’s that low
- Nix has 3x’d his DK price in 5/7 games
- The reason I’m so bullish on Nix for a second consecutive week is the way Nix plays vs teams with a good pass rush and how he plays agonist teams with a bad pass rush
- His PFF grade with a clean pocket 88
- His PFF grade under pressure 40
- Last week vs the Falcons who ranked 32nd in pass rush he scored 31.8 pts
- The Raiders rank 24th in pass rush and he scored 23.1 pts against them in their first matchup Week 5
Cash: Brock Bowers 6.3k
- No one was higher on Brock Bowers heading into this season than me
- I called him a generational talent in Feb
- In March I said he could be the number 1 TE in fantasy this season before knowing his landing spot
- When many panicked as the Raiders selected Bowers, I kept pumping him up and drafting him in best ball and redraft leagues
- Even I didn’t expect Bowers to be this good
- Bowers stats since the trade of Davante Adams (6 games)
- 75 Targets
- 50 Receptions
- 19.83 ppg on DK
- Bowers caught 8 passes on 12 targets for 97 yards and a score in his first matchup with Denver
- Scoring 23.7 pts on DK (his highest scoring week before his 34 point performance last week)
49ers @ Packers (GB-5.5) O/U 44.5
Jauan Jennings in 3 games as a starter this season:
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 21, 2024
Week 3: 46.5 fantasy points, WR1 overall
Week 10: 16.3 fantasy points, WR16 overall
Week 11: 25.1 fantasy points, WR7 overall pic.twitter.com/913oe51cXb
MME and Cash: Jauan Jennings $5.6k
- It might seem insane that I’m recommending one player from this game for both cash/multi entries and that player’s a pass catcher playing with a backup QB
- Fair enough, but I don’t love any Packers players because it’s so hard to predict which GB player is going to score the most fantasy pts week to week
- Jennings on the other hand is the clear cut number one target in the 49ers passing game since Aiyuk went on IR for the remainder of the year
- In the three games Jennings has played without Aiyuk he’s seeing a 41.3% first read target share (only Nabers is ahead of him and above 40%)
- Jennings has seen at least 11 targets in all 3 of the games mentioned above
- Scored 16.3 pts or more on DK in those games (90.6 pts combined)
- Per PFF he has the 3rd best WR/CB matchup this week
Cardinals @ Seahawks (ARI-1) O/U 47.5
Not sure if JSN should even consider stringing two straight massive performances together.
— Fantasy Points (@FantasyPts) November 22, 2024
I don't know if social media can handle that.. 👀 @Fantasy_Guru @DrakeFantasy pic.twitter.com/Z66S8qx64J
MME: Marvin Harrison Jr. $6.1k
- They’re predicting significant rain for this game, I would pivot off Harrison Jr if that occurs but still feel good playing JSN
- Seattle runs man defense at one of the highest rates in the NFL
- Harrison Jr is a man eater
- Harrison Vs Man
- 44.4% target rate
- Top-10 in win rate
- 15th in fantasy pts per target
- Seattle enters this game with a banged up secondary
Cash: JSN $6.3k
- last two games
- 24 targets
- 17 receptions
- 290 yards
- 2 TDs
- In all of fantasy since week 8 among WRs
- WR1 in receiving yds per
- WR2 in receptions per
- WR4 in targets per
- WR1 in fantasy ppg
- He’s the 12th most expensive player on the slate
- Facing a Cards D who allows the 10th most receptions per game to opposing WRs
- Arizona is a pass defense who allows a lot of receptions but doesn’t give up a ton of big plays
- JSN’s ADOT is considerably lower in games Metcalf plays, Metcalf will play this week
Thank you for reading Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook (Week 12)! You can keep the conversation going by following and interacting with him on Twitter/X @KeithFlemming
Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9 pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays. This week’s show is below!
The Daily Fix | Week 12 NFL DraftKings DFS Plays of The Week https://t.co/VhGdM5le7W
— Fantasy In Frames | Fantasy Football Content (@FantasyInFrames) November 23, 2024
