Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!
My Week 10 DFS Playbook included three of the top ten scorers on DraftKings for Week 9 including top scorer JSN at less than 3% ownership. Let’s stay on this heater in my DraftKings DFS Playbook for Week 10!
Each week, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.
When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.
My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups.
Let’s dive into Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook: Week 10
Broncos @ Chiefs (KC-9.5) O/U 41.5
Kareem Hunt has 414 yards in 5 games for the #Chiefs
— Price Carter (@priceacarter) November 7, 2024
If he averages 66 yards in the remaining 9 games (hard to do with Pacheco coming back) he could be the first Chief to rush for 1000 yards since….
2017 Kareem Hunt #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/hGeVqGqmr6
MME: Kareem Hunt $5.6k
- Sutton’s fantasy value has skyrocketed over the past month
- He’s had consecutive 100 yards receiving games
- He’s 9th among WRs in targets and 11th in expected fantasy points
- Sutton is the 24th most expensive WR on this DK slate
- KC is a tough matchup and probably will be a loss for the Broncos
- This could be good news for Sutton who’s scoring over Dener’s last five games 8.7 ppg in Broncos losses and 20.8 ppg in Broncos wins
Cash: Kareem Hunt $6.6k
- Volume is king in cash games for DFS
- Hunt’s averaging 24 rush attempts per game over his last four (at least 21 rush attempts in each)
- 21.7 pts or more on DK in 3/4
- If you expect KC to win like I do, that’s great news for No 1 RBs vs Denver (In Denver losses Kenneth Walker 23/103/2 TDs, J.K. Dobbins 25/96/TD, Derrick Henry 23/106/2 TDs)
Steelers @ Commanders (WSH-2.5) O/U 45.5
Anticipating open windows, and layering in throws.
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) November 8, 2024
2 reasons why Jayden Daniels is already looking more advanced as a rookie 🫡@DariusJButler | @gregcosell | @NFLMatchup pic.twitter.com/1B3o2mssft
MME Van Jefferson $3.6k
- The Commanders traded for Marcus Lattemore this week and you can expect him to shadow Terry McLaurin on the snaps he’s on the field vs Washington
- Giving an opportunity to Steelers secondary pass catching options
- Pat Friermuth is also a good option with Washington allowing a TD to TEs in 3/5
- I like Van Jefferson with his recent volume
- He’s seen 8 targets in two games with Russell Wilson (3 Red Zone Targets) compared to 13 targets (2 Red Zone Targets) in six games with Justin Fields
- Scoring 19.7 pts with Wilson compared to 14.2 with Fields despite playing four less games
Cash: Jayden Daniels $7.5k
- 19.9 DK pts or more in his last six games (excluding the Carolina game he was knocked out on his first drive)
- Daniels is averaging 8.11 ppg with just his legs this season
- Anthony Richardson in Week 4 rushed for 24 yards on four carries and completed 3/4 pass attempts for 71 yards in just 12 plays. Richardson in those 12 plays led the Colts to a TD drive and to the Pittsburgh 6-yard line on his second drive before exiting the game with an injury
Vikings @ Jags (MIN-4.5) O/U 46.5
Justin Jefferson really said “oh lovely” when he realized he was facing single coverage 😭 pic.twitter.com/zOCUy59lPG
— Jason Harmon (@_jason_777) November 6, 2024
MME: Parker Washington $3.9K
- Vikings rank 32nd on DK vs WRs
- With the loss of Christian Kirk two weeks ago Parker Washington has played over 70% of snaps in both games (his previous high this season was 35%)
- Washington has 3+ receptions and 40+ yards in each of those games
- 10 of Washington’s 14 targets this season have come in the last two games without Kirk and both of his highest fantasy scoring performances on DK
- Vikings D blitzes at one of the highest rates in the NFL meaning more underneath throws (benefits Washington)
- Mac Jones makes his first start for the Jags this week, he and Washington hooked up for 6 receptions in the preseason including a TD
Cash: Jutin Jefferson $8.8k
- Jax ranks 29th on DK vs WRs but it’s still hard to justify paying $8.8k for any player in DFS cash games
- Jefferson ranks 2nd among WRs in target share and is averaging 19.7 ppg this season
- But the reason I’m bullish about Jefferson despite his price tag is the Jags run man defense at one of the highest rates in the NFL
- Jefferson averages 3.13 fantasy pts per target vs man this season
Falcons @ Saints (ATL-3.5) O/U 47.5
Taysom Hill is a league winner yet again… pic.twitter.com/od6iNtLFUK
— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) November 5, 2024
MME: Taysom Hill $4.0k
- Hill’s seen 9 targets the last two weeks
- This week the Saints will be without Chris Olave and Cedric Wilson
- The last time Hill played the Falcons in Week 4 he scored two rushing TDs in the first half before exiting with an injury
- He’s scored double figures when facing the Falcons in 5/6
Cash: Bijan Robinson $7.7k
- 21.5 pts or more on DK in four straight
- 88 touches in that span
- Consecutive games with 7 receptions
- NO’s allowed 24 receptions to RBs over their last 6 games (6 to Atlanta in Week 4)
- RBs have scored 8 TDs vs NO in their last four games (Bijan’s scored 4 TDs in his last four games)
49ers @ Bucs (SF-6.5) O/U 48.5
Don't let the election distract you from the fact that CMC has returned to practice & is on par to play this Sunday vs the Bucs.
— FoN9ne (@FoN9ne) November 6, 2024
pic.twitter.com/JFcOtOoIlx
MME: CMC $8.0k
- CMC appears on track to make his 2024 debut this Sunday (pivot to Jauan Jennings if he doesn’t play)
- TB’s allowed 16 receptions and 5 TDs to opposing RBs in their last 3 games (Two 100-yard rushers in that span)
- Last season CMC scored 20 pts or more in 15/21 games and 25+pts in 8/21 games
Cash: Cade Otton $5.5k
- Otton in his last two games without Evans or Godwin has seen 21 targets for 158 yards and 3 scores
- 31 targets over his last three games
- 71.8 pts scored on DK in that span with at least 21 pts in each
- SF’s allowed 21 receptions to TEs in their last three games
Bills @ Colts (BUF-4.5) O/U 47.5
Khalil Shakir has the most unique WR role right now. And it works very well for him. pic.twitter.com/6ST0FWuaer
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) November 5, 2024
MME: Khalil Shakir 6.0k
- Keon Coleman has been ruled out for this game and Amari Cooper is questionable
- Opening the door for Shakir to see a heavier target volume
- He’s seen 24 targets over his last three games
- Shakir’s scored 10.2 pts or more on DK in 7/8 games despite only scoring two TDs this season
- Indy ranks 24th vs WRs on DK
Cash: Josh Downs $6.2k
- Joe Flacco is slated to make his 5th start of the season for Indy
- Downs numbers in the four previous Flacco starts
- 39 targets (at least 9 in each)
- 30 receptions (at least 6 in each)
- 277 receiving yards (at least 60 in each)
- 17.4 ppg on DK (at least 12 in each)
Patriots @ Bears (CHI-6.5) O/U 39.5
The BEST RB Matchups for Week 10:
— Chris O'Brien (@17gamepace) November 8, 2024
– Tyrone Tracy Jr. (CAR)
– D’andre Swift (NE)
– Aaron Jones (JAX)
– Kareem Hunt (DEN)
– Chuba Hubbard (NYG)
– Jonathan Taylor (BUF)
– Breece Hall (ARI)
– Alvin Kamara (ATL)
– Bijan Robinson (NO)
– Christian McCaffrey (TB)
– Saquon Barkley (DAL)
MME D’Andre Swift $6.5k
- NE ranks 28th on DK vs RBs
- Over their last five games NE allowed to opposing RBs 788 yards and six touchdowns at 5.1 yards per carry
- Bears rookie QB enters this week battling an ankle injury and he’s been sacked 12 times in the last three Bears games
- I expect the Bears to lean on the run game in a must win game
Cash: Hunter Henry $3.9k
- Henry is a No 1 WR playing TE
- In his last two full games played with Drake Maye at QB he’s seen 17 targets, caught 15 passes, for 158 receiving yards
- He’s been TE11/TE7/TE6 in the three full games played with Maye
- The Bears are a really good pass defense but their one weakness versus the pass is TEs
- In just the last 3 weeks Zach Ertz caught 7 passes for 77 yards and Evan Engram caught 10 passes for 102 yards
Titans @ Chargers (LAC-8) O/U 37.5
Justin Herbert currently has an INT/attempt ratio of 0.4% 🎯
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) November 7, 2024
The only player to have a better ratio in a season is Aaron Rodgers in 2018, when he set the NFL record of 0.3% pic.twitter.com/3yUcUmTaUy
MME: J.K. Dobbins $7.2k
- The Titans run defense is good overall but they’ve allowed 7 TDs to RBs in their last three games
- Dobbins has scored 16.8 pts or more in 3/4 after a tough two game stretch where he scored a combined 17.6 pts
- Dobbins volume has been significant and consistent with 14 rush attempts or more in seven straight games
- He’s averaging 22 touches over game over his last four
Cash: Justin Herbert $5.2k
- 20.43 ppg over his last 3 games
- 7th most ppg among QBs on the main slate during that span
- He’s the 21st most expensive QB on this main slate this week
- Herbert has doubled his passing yards per game in the four games since the bye (284 yards per game)
- He’s thrown 5 passing touchdowns at 303 passing yards per game and 20 rushing yards per game over his last three games
- Chargers throwing at the highest rate in the NFL on 1st down since Week 6
Eagles @ Cowboys (PHI-7) O/U 41.5
RB success rate through Week 9: pic.twitter.com/6KabLdj5g9
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) November 4, 2024
MME: Rico Dowdle $6.2k
- Dowdle’s quietly put together four straight double-digit games on DK (16.25 ppg in that span)
- It’s Dowdle’s passing upside that intrigues me this week
- He’s caught five or more passes in 2/3 and scored a receiving TD in 3/4
- Cooper Rush is starting at QB for Dallas this week
- Backup QBs typically throw more to TEs and RBs
- Dowdle played a season high 72% of snaps last week while Zeke was serving his one game suspension for disciplinary reasons
- It’s unclear with Zeke cleared to play this week if he’ll resume his normal snap count at RB
Cash: Saquan Barkley $8.2k
- 443 rushing yards in his last three games
- 3 TDs in that span
- Elite RBs have feasted on the Cowboys Run Defense this season
- Kamara 47 pts
- Henry 33.4 pts
- Montgomery/Gibbs 33.4 pts
- Bijan 21.5 pts
Jets @ Cardinals (ARI-1) O/U 46.5
Garrett Wilson over the last four weeks:
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 6, 2024
✈️ 27 receptions
✈️ 371 yards
✈️ 3 TDs
✈️ 84.1 fantasy points
The WR1 over this stretch pic.twitter.com/T6mWeWjVnX
MME: Aaron Rodgers $5.7k
- 17.3 pts or more on DK in 3/4
- Multiple passing TDs in 6/8
- Arizona blitzes at the 4th highest rate in the NFL
- Rodgers vs the blitz last week 8/12 for 100 yards and two TDs
Cash: Garrett Wilson $7.2k
- 27.7 pts or more on DK in 3/5
- Wilson’s stats in his three games since Davante Adams joined the team
- 27 targets
- 19 receptions
- 264 receiving yards
- 2 TDs
- 62.4 pts on DK
Thank you for reading Keith’s 2024 DraftKings NFL DFS Playbook (Week 10)! You can keep the conversation going by following and interacting with him on Twitter/X @KeithFlemming
