The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the New England Patriots.
What does James White have to do to earn some respect around here, win a Super Bowl all by himself?!
Wait……
With the departure of passing-catching back Dion Lewis two seasons ago, James White has led this backfield in receptions, targets, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points per game in 0.5 PPR and full PPR scoring. Why? Probably because Tom Brady didn’t have many consistent receiving options in the passing game, therefore, dumped the ball off to his possession options like Julian Edelman and the aforementioned James White. But, let’s face it that was the past and it’s a whole new situation in Foxborough. Tom Brady is OUT. Cam Newton is IN. And the receiving options are…well the same. Ok, so just the quarterback position is new in New England. Everything else on offense is pretty much exactly as it was last season.
However, out of doing our due diligence, with the presence of Sony Michel, Lamar Miller, Damian Harris, and Rex Burkhead in the running back room, we MUST ask ourselves if James White is the running back we should trust from a fantasy standpoint in New England?
Reasons For Optimism
What makes a receiving back a viable option in fantasy? I’ll tell you. It’s game script. The more a team is in passing situations the more they will utilize their receiving options. Duh. Running backs who grind out those “tough yards” are essentially useless in games where the team is dealing with a negative game script, i.e. when one’s team is playing from behind and therefore needs to throw the ball more often to have a chance at scoring and evening things up. In 2019, the Patriots rarely saw themselves in situations in which they had a negative game script. I mean there was a reason why Sony Michel had 247 rushing attempts. That reason being the Patriots defense was one of the more elite units in all of football, thus the team never had to play catch up throwing the ball that often. That is until later on in the season, which is where you saw the bulk of James White’s fantasy production come from.
So what’s different in 2020? COVID-19. COVID-19 opt-out players to be specific. On that elite defense, safety Patrick Chung and linebacker Dont’a Hightower chose not to play in 2020. Those two losses combined with the free agency departures of linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins, and all of a sudden that elite defensive unit in New England is looking quite fragile. So fragile, in fact, that the Patriots might be in a position where they find themselves trailing against a good chunk of their opponents this season. I wonder whose skillset that favors at running back on the Patriots? That’s right, it would be James White’s.
That all being said there IS a new QB in New England with a different skill set than Tom Brady, referring of course to Cam Newton. What makes me think Newton will lean on White heavily in the passing game as Tom Brady did? In 2019, in two games played Newton had an average depth of target of 9.5 yards and that was with a bum shoulder. In 2018, in 14 games played he had an average depth of target of 7.6 yards. In 2017, in 16 games played he had an average depth of target of 8.9 yards. You would have to go back to 2016 to see Cam Newton have an average depth of target throwing the ball more than 10 yards downfield. The past three seasons James White has averaged 6.65 yards per target. It APPEARS that James White is in Cam Newton’s wheelhouse as it were when it comes to looking for targets downfield. So let me get this straight, there is a quarterback in New England who doesn’t throw the ball that far on a team whose elite defense got picked apart this offseason who just happens to have a pass-catching running back on their roster who was only behind Christian McCaffery and Alvin Kamara in terms of receiving yards at the running back position, and you might think that James White is NOT “the guy” in New England?! Give me a break.
Reasons For Pessimism
Bill. Belichick. Always. Messes. Up. Your. Plans. In. Fantasy. Football.
Answering The Question
Is James White is the running back we should trust from a fantasy standpoint in New England?
Yes, he is in 0.5 PPR and PPR formats. In non-PPR you want the volume back whether that’s Sony Michel, Damian Harris, Rex Burk……you know what? On second thought, the only running back you want is James White in 0.5 PPR or full PPR formats. Any other back and any other format just stay clear of this backfield.
