After a largely uneventful first couple of years in the NFL, Ronald Jones is quietly having a stellar season, silencing the pre-season doubters. But is this production sustainable?
With Fournette injured and rookie Keshawn Vaughn failing to make an impact, third-year running back Ronald Jones has been making the most of his opportunity so far this year. After the first six weeks of the season, Jones has the 5th most rushing yards in the league and ranks 8th in rushing attempts. He has now reached 472 yards from 97 attempts, equating to a healthy 4.9 yards per carry, and currently stands as the RB14 as we approach week 7. This compares to a finish of RB26 in 2019, a year in which he saw more than 15 carries just twice, compared to four times in 2020 – including last week when he saw a career-high 23 carries.
After Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy’s moves to Tampa, a number of fantasy managers (myself included) saw this backfield as a bit of a mess. With seemingly so many mouths to feed, several off-season moves to bring in fresh faces, and a coach in Bruce Arians who has been known to punish players who make mistakes, it seemed like a running back room to avoid for fantasy. But Jones has been the one to step up, accounting for over 60% of the teams rushing attempts so far.
And there has also been a marked improvement in production in recent weeks with coaching staff clearly trusting him to handle the bulk of work. Over the last three games, Jones has rushed 60 times for a total 330 yards and two touchdowns. And last week against a porous Packers defense, Jones finished as the RB4, amassing 121 total yards and two touchdowns.
Tom Brady’s move to Tampa Bay and his eagerness to throw the running back has aided Jones’ production, seeing a noticeable uptick in receiving work. So far this year Jones has recorded 17 receptions on 25 targets, compared to just five receptions and six targets at the same point last season. Jones has also benefitted from Tampa Bay’s move away from the pass-heavy Jameis Winston experience. So far this year the Buccaneers have rushed on 40.1% of their plays, ranking 20th in the league. In comparison, last season the Bucs rushed on just 37.7% of their plays, the 7th fewest in the league.
And there’s a good chance this coming week could be another successful outing. Jones and the rest of the Buccaneers face the Las Vegas Raiders, who are allowing an average 26.6 points to running backs this year, the third-most in the NFL.
The big question, whether Jones can remain the workhorse back, remains to be seen but a couple of factors appear to be in Jones’ favor. Firstly, Fournette has long had injury issues and there is no guarantee he will remain healthy for the rest of the year. Secondly, and most importantly, Jones has exceeded expectations in this offense and there is little reason to move away from him given how well he has played. For now, we can feel fairly safe rolling with Ronald Jones, particularly this coming Sunday.
Breaking news: The Packers still can’t stop the run
An additional nugget of fantasy information for you…although Jones has clearly improved as a runner, it is worth noting just how poor Green Bay have been against running backs this year – and fantasy managers should look to exploit this matchup in the coming weeks. The Packers have allowed a weekly average of 31.4 points to running backs this year, the most in the league. And this is not an outlier. Last year, the Packers ranked 9th in the league, surrendering an average 23.7 points to running backs. So with the Texans, Vikings, 49ers, and Jaguars all facing Green Bay in the next four weeks, look out for the likes of David Johnson, Dalvin Cook, and James Robinson to excel.