The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the New Orleans Saints.
What do Lance Moore, Robert Meacham, Kenny Stills, Willie Snead, Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn all have in comment? They each finished as top-40 WR on a fantasy points per game basis as the second wide receiver in a Drew Brees offense. Since joining the Saints in 2007, Brees has produced two (or more) top-40 fantasy football WRs in a season eight times. Marques Colston and Lance Moore achieved this three times (2008, 2011 and 2012).
In 2016, Brandin Cooks and then-rookie Michael Thomas each finished in the top 10! This year, Michael Thomas lines up alongside veteran EMMANUEL SANDERS, whose current ADP is WR41.
Could Emmanual Sanders be this year’s 2016 Michael Thomas and finish as a top-10 wide receiver alongside 2020 Michael Thomas? Did I sufficiently confuse you? Will these questions never end? Bueller?
The Downside
Since Michael Thomas’s rookie year in 2016 and the arrival of pass-catching running back Alvin Kamara in 2017, no Saints wideout has finished better than WR34 in half point per reception leagues (Ted Ginn in 2017). Kamara has averaged over 100 targets per season. Only Christian McCaffery has averaged more targets at RB over that time. For perspective, only 30 wide receivers saw 100+ targets in 2019. Head Coach Sean Payton effectively uses Kamara as a starting RB and second wide receiver. This means that Sanders is fighting for targets not just from Michael Thomas, the other wide receivers and Jared Cook at tight end, but from one of the most dynamic running backs. Will Brees have enough passes to go around?
Sanders also has yet to run a route in the Saints offense. With a truncated offseason, free agents generally may suffer from less practice with their new teams. This isn’t Emmanuel’s first rodeo with learning a new offense. That said, it is hard to underestimate the value of continuity this year, particularly for a Super Bowl contender like the Saints. It’s possible that Sanders will be slow to pick up the offense and build a rapport with Drew Brees. But if he’s a quick study…watch out!
The Upside
Sanders is a significant upgrade at wide receiver for Brees. Last year, Sanders caught 88.0% of catchable targets, his “true catch rate”. That was 12th best in the league. Sanders may not be Michael Thomas, whose true catch rate was a league-best 94.9%, but he’s no slouch.
Sanders also has a much better opportunity to be on the field with the Saints offense. Last year, Sanders had to adapt mid-season from the Broncos’ to the 49ers’ playcalling. According to Mike Fabiano of NFL.com, the Saints had at three or more wide receivers on the field almost 60% of the time, whereas the Broncos and 49ers favored more running backs and tight ends in their formations. The Saints offensive scheme should result in more targets for Sanders.
As I previously wrote, Sanders historically has seen valuable targets. According to Airyards.com, his average depth of target (aDOT) was 11.80 yards in Pittsburgh, 12.00 in Denver and 11.20 in San Francisco. By comparison, Michael Thomas has a career aDOT of 8.40 yards. Offensive coordinators have consistently used Sanders to run middle-to-deep routes. Plus, Sanders has never had a quarterback as accurate as Drew Brees.
Answering The Question
Could Emmanuel Sanders finish as a top-10 wide receiver as the second wideout in New Orleans?
Absolutely, but it seems more likely he’ll finish as a top-30 WR. The combination of Thomas and Sanders is the best wide receiver tandem that Brees has had since Cooks and Thomas in 2016. Sanders is an efficient receiver who gives Brees a middle-deep ball threat that should yield fantasy gold. But Super Kamar-io will remain the second passing option in New Orleans. It’s hard to see a clear path to a top-10 finish for Sanders with Thomas and Kamara on the field. But you aren’t drafting Sanders to be anything more than a bench player in the 8th/9th round. As long as Sean Payton and Drew Brees are running the offense, Sanders will have huge upside and is worth a stash on your bench.
