The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Oakland Raiders.
In year two of Gruden’s regime, the Raiders took a small step towards NFL legitimacy. Although the 2019 Raiders were nothing to cheer about, the team still exceeded expectations with a 7-9 record, while also playing in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. In terms of how the Raiders improved in 2019, a lot of this success is attributed to a more disciplined football team—nothing outside of what you would expect of a John Gruden team. Between 2018 and 2019, the team reduced offensive turnovers by approximately 29%, for which a lot of this improvement is attributed to a higher emphasis on the run game and increased passing efficiency. In terms of the former, the Raiders increased their rushing attempts by 12.9%, whereby the team saw increased numbers in touchdowns, yards per game, and yards per carry. In turn, this shift in offensive ideology improved the team’s 3rd down conversion percentage, the rate of touchdowns scored in the redzone, and Derek Carr’s touchdown to interception ratio. But of all the improvements in 2019, perhaps none gave Raiders fans more optimism than the re-emergence of Derek Carr.
In a matter of four seasons, Derek Carr descended from the early career success that had many analysts thinking he was a budding star in the making, to now the mediocre quarterback who more closely resembles the once-favorite sweater that now sits in the back corner of your closet. In other words, Derek Carr is not a player on most fantasy draft boards. Per figure 1 below, Derek Carr’s draft stock decreased in value over the last month by a rate of 22%, for which the Raiders QB on average is available between rounds 14 and 15. In super flex formats, it is undeniable that the Raiders signal-caller is valuable on all rosters. The question is though, is Carr worth the draft stock at the end of standard leagues? And further, does Is Carr A Starting-Caliber Fantasy Football Quarterback?
Reasons for Pessimism
On the surface, the answer to this question is “absolutely not”. Although Carr ranked 8th in the league in passing yards and 2nd in terms of completion percentage (when filtering out QBs with insignificant minutes), the optimism in terms of his overall season performance is overshadowed by the disheartening story the data presents. From an average depth of target (aDOT) perspective, Carr ranked at the bottom of the league with 7.1 yards per attempt. The latter also suggests that league leading 70.37% completion rating is perhaps overinflated by short yardage completions. And with only one game with 300+ yards passing and one game with 3+ TDs, the volatility of Carr’s fantasy value week-to-week provides more risk than most fantasy football owners want to assume.
Another risk linked to Carr’s low valuation in fantasy leagues is in relation to the Raiders mediocre offensive line. In 2019, the Raiders ranked 18th and 15th in pass blocking and run blocking efficiency, respectively (per PFF). Of course, re-signing Ritchie Incognito will help the Raiders maintain some level of continuity in the trenches. That said, despite signing Eric Kush and drafting John Simpson in the 4th round of the NFL draft, this weakness still remains a concern. Ranking 26th in the league in terms of average time to throw, 29th in terms of average time in the pocket, and 36th in terms of average time to sack, this Raiders offensive line is a massive concern when evaluating the fantasy potential of Derek Carr.
Reasons for Optimism
Despite the above, when looking at the number of drop-backs when not under pressure, Derek Carr actually ranked 5th in the league in terms of yardage and 9th in the league in terms of Adjusted Completion Percentage (ADJ%). Of the latter, the only QBs with similar yardage included Winston, Prescott, Goff, and Brady. And in terms of ADJ%, the only starting QBs with similar stats included Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins.
Another sign of optimism is Carr’s efficiency deep down the field, despite having a low volume of attempts. Although Carr’s proclivity to short yardage passes overshadowed the efficiency he exhibited deep down the field, Carr actually ranked 13th in terms of Adjusted Completion Percentage on deep passing downs (when only looking at QBs with 10+ games played). Carr also ranked 16th in terms of passer rating on deep passes, which was only 1.4% behind Kyler Murray and 4.4% behind Jameis Winston. Not to mention, Carr’s highest QB efficiency came in 30+ yard passes down the left side of the field.
In the same breath as above, the Raiders prioritized bringing in more receivers this offseason to re-invigorate this offense with much needed speed down field. Hunter Renfrow showed signs of optimism in 2019 with the 8th highest cushion rating and the 9th highest separation rating on his total routes ran. Renfrow also averaged analogous yards per route ran numbers to Courtland Sutton. Of course, the emergence of Darren Waller and the addition of Tyrell Williams also added to the offense, too. That said, the Raiders improved their personnel in 2020 from a speed perspective by adding Henry Ruggs III through the NFL draft, along with Nelson Agholor and Zay Jones through free agency. From a separation and cushion per route ran standpoint, Agholor and Jones both provided high end value in this category. Not to mention, Henry Ruggs III provides elite down field speed and efficiency that has the potential to stretch the field. Although the Raiders target allocation is unclear, it is apparent that the front office prioritized adding targets to this offense who can increase the team’s deep ball efficiency.
The Verdict:
Is Carr a starting-caliber fantasy football quarterback?
The answer is complicated. Based on the facts above, Carr is a fringe starter with lower end top 15 potential (as shown last season at QB16). Although some of Carr’s stats are overinflated and there is some week-to-week volatility, Carr is a streamable player based on favourable matchups. To the last point, the Raiders have an easier schedule from a quarterback matchup stand point (playing teams like the Jets, Panthers, and Colts). Although it is not advisable to draft Carr as a starter, there are not many better bench options at his ADP who have fringe starting ability week-to-week based on matchups. That said, should the Raiders receiving core take the next step forward and the offensive line improves upon last year, Carr has the potential to take the next step if this translate into more touchdowns.
