The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The K.C. Chiefs enter the 2020 season as the defending Super Bowl Champs. I realize that we all know this, but it just feels good to type! With the final pick of the 1st round in the 2020 NFL draft, the Chiefs shockingly select Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The pick was not shocking in regards to ability, but due to the sheer fact that Andy Reid has never selected an RB higher than pick 53 (McCoy in 2009) in his 20-year career. While many, including myself, were nothing short of impressed with Damien Williams last year when healthy, the pick of CEH was the writing on the wall that CEH was “eventually” going to be the lead dog.
July 29th, 2020 is a day that shook the fantasy world. Damien Williams elects to opt-out of the 2020 NFL season! I was on the clock when the news broke in the Razzbowl, sitting in the 3rd round, and without a second thought smashed the draft button for CEH. That would be the absolute last time that someone was able to grab him outside of the first 18 picks. From 2/1/20-7/29/20, according to the NFFC ADP, CEH was being drafted on average of pick 26. According to the same ADP from 7/29/20-8/14/20, his ADP now sits at 7!!! So, is Clyde Edwards-Helaire a 1st round pick??
The Upside:
CEH is entering the fold as the lead RB for an Andy Reid team, with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. I could pretty much leave the argument with only that small piece of information, but I will elaborate. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have had a top 10 offense in terms of efficiency. Why do I mention efficiency? If we use the last couple of years as a baseline, the Chiefs have averaged the 23rd most rushing attempts, yet have finished 23rd, 16th, and 10th in yardage. This is a product of Andy Reid’s playcalling, which Pro Football Focus ranks as tops in the league. While Reid’s playcalling is definitely more pass-happy than run-oriented, the rushing attack is able to maximize their attempts. The Chiefs have had finishes of 20th, 6th, and 1st in terms of yards per rushing attempt. This is extremely valuable when the reigns are being handed to the 1st year back who may not get the 250 carry workload of most 1st round picks. I am projecting CEH to take on the vacated rushing attempts of both Williams and LeSean McCoy (212). While predicting yards per attempt isn’t an exact science, even if we take the 2019 average (4.2), this gives CEH just under 900 yards. Many are saying that his diminutive stature can’t handle a heavy workload, but let me remind you that he had 215 carries last year in the SEC for over 1400 yards and 16 TDs. This isn’t your 3rd down receiving back!
So we have an RB that is expected to see just over 200 carries and under 1,000 yards? Why is he being taken as high as #1 overall in some drafts? Receptions! Receptions! Receptions! Last year at LSU CEH was 2nd among all RB’s with 55 receptions, 453 yards, and 1 TD in 15 total games. Now he enters into a Chiefs offense that has averaged a 17.8% target share to their RB over the past 6 years. Let’s be honest, when the Chiefs drafted him, it was his explosiveness and ability to make people miss in space that was worthy of the 1st round pick. I know that he won’t receive all of the targets, but he should get the lions’ share. Play along with me, if he just sees a 13% target share, that should work out to around 75 targets for 55-60 receptions. If he merely averages 8 yards per rec, that is another 440-480 yards. While these are speculative, it’s hard to imagine spending the draft capital on CEH if they didn’t plan on utilizing him in these ways.
The final piece to the upside puzzle…the TDs! You can’t have a 1st round pick with just over 1300 total yards and 55-60 receptions. If he were to just have those totals and score 0 TD’s, he would have finished as the RB23 in 2019 and the RB23 in 2018. That is a far cry from the 7th overall pick! Luckily for us, he is joining a team that has averaged 52 red zone rushing attempts since 2014 and has converted 21% of those into touchdowns, for a total of 11 per year. I realize that there will be situations that somebody else will vulture some away. Since I am using what I perceive to be his floor, I will do the same for the TD’s. Let’s give him 8 of the 11 scores. Now he goes from the RB23 to the RB12 in 2019 and the RB12 in 2018.
Reasons for concern:
As with any rookie entering the league, there can be a steep learning curve. Now let’s take into account this crazy COVID season with no pre-season games and limited interactions with the coaching staff, and we have even more turmoil. The Chiefs do have 2 other RB’s who know the system. Darwin Thompson was the pre-season darling last year, but never took advantage of any of his opportunities, as limited as they may have been (37/128/1). The other D. Williams didn’t do much with his limited opportunities (41/141/3). While it’s entirely possible that CEH takes the job from day 1 and never looks back, it is also in the range of outcomes that one of the aforementioned eats into his production. If you are investing a 1st round pick on RB, it is imperative that they have enough touches to warrant that pick, especially if he is going ahead of proven commodities.
Staying on the field is the key to CEH’s success, and effective pass blocking is key for rookie RB’s. Many will point to CEH’s pass-blocking grade via PFF in college, where he ranked 314 out of 349 FBS RB’s. An easy way to get in a coach’s doghouse is to allow your $500M QB to take unnecessary sacks and Andy Reid has shown that if you get in the doghouse, it takes a lot to get back out…looking at you McCoy.
The Verdict:
I am BUYING CEH as a first-round pick. Now, I will say that I am a little leery of the 7th overall pick, but if he can deliver on just the floor that I provided above, it wouldn’t be a huge gamble. But what about the concerns of his pass blocking? I put those behind me when I saw his pass block totals at LSU, and I take into account the limited usage the Chiefs RB’s have in pass blocking. They ranked 27th last year in RB pass blocking %.
Now, I used the floor in my projections earlier for CEH, but if you are taking him in the top 10, that means you are looking for upside, and that could be immense! Let’s take a look!
The last time Andy Reid had a rookie running back, taking over for the supposed starter, was in 2017, and that was Kareem Hunt. Hunt received 272 carries that year, which was the most carries since Jamaal Charles. If CEH shows the ability to take on a workload as heavy as he did at LSU, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get to 220 carries. Lets set that as his ceiling. Previously, I had set the yards per attempt at 4.2, which would be the lowest per attempt average of the previous 6 years for a Chiefs RB with at least 170 carries. With Mahomes under center, the average y/a for the rushing game is 4.6.
Finally, the target share of 13% that I used could easily be closer to the majority of the available targets. Under Mahomes, Chiefs RB’s average 16% of the target share, which would amount to 92 targets. With an optimistic catch rate of 75%, he would have 69 receptions. If the ypr stayed the same as above (8 ypr), we are looking at a league winning type of RB. Since TD’s are difficult to predict, I will only separate the ceiling and the floor by 25%, which would result in 10TD on the ground, and let’s give him 2TD receiving.
Let’s look at the potential ceiling: 220 car/1,012yds/10TD/69 rec/552 yds/2TD. These totals would amount to 262.9 points in 1/2 PPR settings…which would be the RB6 in 2018 and the RB6 in 2019……
