Is Carson Wentz Getting Too Overvalued?
The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question, from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season, is the Philadelphia Eagles.
In a year that saw Carson Wentz lose the majority of his receiving options on offense, with the exception of Zach Ertz, he was able to bounce back from a mid-season performance that had him averaging 14.9 fantasy points/game to an end quarter of the season performance averaging 19.4 fantasy points/game with a group of receivers I guarantee you have never heard of before and probably do not even remember their names now. To put that in real football terms he went from averaging 36.1 passing attempts & 207.9 passing yards per game from weeks 5-13 to averaging 43.4 attempts & 299.8 passing yards per game during the last quarter of the season. Again, he did this with backups of backups at the receiving position. Needless to say what he did reminded us all of just how elite of a player Wentz is at the position.
However, as with every offseason, players that finish strong at ANY position immediately get praised with otherworldly hype and, ultimately, a rise in draft value entering the following season. The question, therefore, we must answer at this point in the offseason is if Carson Wentz is starting to become too overvalued?
Valued Too High
Currently going as the QB11 with a 7th round ADP in 0.5 PPR 12-team league, according to FantasyPros, Wentz finds himself surrounded by the company of the likes of Brandin Cooks, John Brown, Marvin Jones, James White, and Jordan Howard. Now, typically speaking when seeing quarterbacks surrounded by a cluster of players that could be considered the RB1 or WR1 for their respective teams I need to recommend drafting those players ahead of their ADP quarterback counterparts just based on value alone. Remember, you shouldn’t be relying on your quarterback to help you win fantasy football championships, but rather the collection of skill position players you have on your rosters which, throughout the season when navigating bye weeks, are critical to you having sustained success. Combine that stance with the fact that Wentz, in the past three seasons, is only averaging playing 13.3 games per year and I’d say you would be paying up too much for his current 7th round value.
Valued Just Right
In 2017, his would-be MVP season had he not gotten hurt, Wentz was on a ridiculous pace of averaging 22.2 fantasy points per game. Think about that team. His primary receiving options in Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery, and Nelson Agholar were all averaging over double-digit fantasy points/game and he had a dual-threat backfield when combined were averaging as a unit 15.3 fantasy points per game. In other words, that entire Eagles starting offense was clicking from a fantasy standpoint with Wentz being the overall beneficiary, from a fantasy standpoint, of their success. Jump to 2019. Carson Wentz ended the season averaging 19.4 fantasy points per/game, his lead running back was averaging 12.1 fantasy points/game, his tight end was averaging 11.4 fantasy points/game, and his primary wide receivers, granted only played in 13 games combined, were both when healthy averaging over 10 fantasy points/game. With all of those weapons coming back to the team in 2020, how could you NOT be excited for Wentz’s upside and thus drafting him at his current value?! To get a potential Top 4 or 5, overall, quarterback at the same point in the draft when you are potentially drafting your 4th or 5th wide receiver or running back makes all the sense in the world. Your RB/WR 4 or 5 is likely to see the field in, what, 1 or 2 games MAX in a season?! Whereas an elite quarterback is played 15 out of 16 weeks? Give me an elite quarterback at that price all DAY!
Answering The Question
“Is Carson Wentz is starting to become too overvalued?”
Hmmm I could have a Top 4 or 5 OVERALL QB or an RB/WR 4 or 5 at his current ADP…..decisions….decisions.
For where he is going I would say the answer is NO, in that he is not being too overvalued. At this point in the draft to get an elite “set it and forget” player inserted into your lineup for the majority of the season is a no brainer. Yes, I understand the injury concerns that come along with Wentz, but at the end of the day unless your name is Will Fuller you shouldn’t be banking on players getting injured. AND even if he got you 13 games in 2020 he probably helped get you into the fantasy playoffs. AND being the shrewd drafter that you are you probably were able to snag a second QB in the later rounds of your draft OR off of the waiver wire during the season just in case something were to happen to Wentz. Either way you can’t go wrong drafting him in the 7th round or later.