Should Aaron Jones Be A First Round Pick?

The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Green Bay Packers.

Somewhere between the end of the 2019 season and just after the NFL Scouting Combine in 2020 the fantasy football world just up and forgot everything that Aaron Jones was able to do just a season ago. Forgotten were the 18.1 fantasy pts/gm, the 19 touchdowns, and Top 10 or even 5 finishes in metrics that evaluate efficiency at the position. The ONLY thing people thought about concerning Aaron Jones post-NFL Combine was this quote from the head coach of the Green Bay Packers’ Matt Lefleur,

“Certainly, we’d like to play one more game than we did last season, and we’re going to need not only those two guys, but I do think we’re going to need a third guy to put into that mix moving forward.”

For the Aaron Jones truthers out there, that quote resonated in a very negative way. To make matter worse, what did the Packers end up doing in the NFL Draft?! That’s right, they drafted a running back by the name of A.J. Dillion out of Boston College throwing this fantasy backfield into disarray. Dillon, known for being a downhill runner and not so much a pass-catching option, with his 2nd round pedigree could very well lead this Packers backfield in 2021 with the potential departure of Aaron Jones in free agency.

For re-draft purposes in 2020 for most of the summer, Jones been relegated to a mid-second round ADP. In recent weeks, however, we’ve seen his draft stock rise to being an early second-round pick.

With all these mixed messages coming out of Green Bay as far as who the lead back is along with the rise up in ADP it’s time we answer the question once and for all which is Should Aaron Jones Be A First Round Pick?

Argument For

In 2019, when Matt LeFleur took over as head coach of the Packers he made it very clear he was going to emphasize a running back by committee approach. Now if you remember back then all the Aaron Jones truthers we were all screaming “FREE AARON JONES” and were appalled by the fact that he was going to split time with Jamaal Williams. However, what ended up happening in 2019? Oh, that’s right, Aaron Jones had 129 more rushing attempts than Williams, 977 more rushing yards on the season, 15 more carries from inside the 5-yard line, 9 more touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line, and averaged 8.9 fantasy points/gm more than Williams. What’s even more impressive is Jones’ work in the receiving game! He was second on the team in targets with 68 whereas Williams had 45, he had 474 receiving yards compared to Williams’ 253, he had an average depth of target of 2.36 yards compared to William’s -0.56, and Jones led the team in Yards After The Catch/Reception with 9.22 yards on average.

For 16 games this past season Aaron Jones WAS the Packers offense. Yet, going into 2020 we’re all of a sudden concerned about two one-trick ponies in A.J. Dillion and Jamaal Williams?! Give me a break.

Now in terms of whether he should be a first-round pick this season is concerned, when looking at the average draft position in 12-team 0.5 PPR drafts, running backs like Joe Mixon (12th) and Josh Jacobs (9th overall) are going ahead of Jones in most drafts. Now I ask you, are those two players on teams with good offensive lines? The answer is no, btw. Only Green Bay was ranked in the top-10 in run blocking last season. Were those two running backs listed in the top 10 in touchdowns scored from within the 5-yard line?  No, in fact, Aaron Jones was tied for first in that category with the next closest being Mixon at RB11. How about rushing attempts from within the 5-yard line. So, technically Mixon had just one more than Jones, but Jones was more efficient in that part of the field scoring 5 more touchdowns than Mixon. Surely, Mixon and Jacobs had more targets than Jones in the redzone, right?! Wrong. Aaron Jones was RB6 on the year with 12 while Mixon and Jacobs were RB16 and RB48 respectively.

Look I’m not saying Jones is leaps and bounds better athletes than Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon. All three of these running backs are elusive, all are playmakers, and all have the talent to be first-round picks, but which running back is in a better position to come close to repeating his 2019 performance given the state of the offensive line and their versatility on offense? The answer is Aaron Jones.

Argument Against

Volume is king in fantasy football and running backs with a clear-cut path to sole proprietorship of the rushing attempts on a team are running backs that you more than likely are drafting early in your fantasy football leagues. In terms of rushing attempts in 2019, running backs Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs finished as the RBs 5 and 12 with Jones being the RB15. In terms of offensive snaps on the field, Mixon finished the regular season with 313 while Jones only had 251. Even Josh Jacobs who played in three fewer games than Jones was on the field more than him. To put this in even more simple terms Mixon touched the ball 47.4%  out of all offensive snaps he was on the field and Josh Jacobs averaged 55.9%. Aaron Jones on the other hand only touched the ball on average 42% of the time. Yes, being efficient is important for a running back’s production on the football field, but so is having more opportunities to be on the field. The fact of the matter is that with all defensive adjustments that opposing defenses make each and every year there is no guarantee that a player’s efficiency will remain the same. However, what is more than likely to remain the same is the opportunity for touches for a running back from the simple fact that offensive schemes and tendencies rarely change from year to year. There’s just too much unpredictability in terms of usage in Green Bay to warrant having Jones in the Top 12 picks of drafts this year ahead of other running backs who are in a more secure position to have volume/opportunity on their side.

Answering The Question

Should Aaron Jones Be A First Round Pick?

No, he shouldn’t. Yes, he was fantastic as a playmaker all over the field both in the running or receiving game, but let’s not make the mistake of thinking that he’s in a situation to be a swiss army knife like Christian McCaffery is in Carolina. The fact of the matter is, for whatever, reason Green Bay’s coaching staff believes that multiple backs can generate an overall better rushing attack rather than relying on one running back. You just can’t rely on efficiency alone to get the job done. You need consistent volume as well. If the Packers hadn’t drafted A.J. Dillon and stuck with Jones and Williams, I would be singing to the high heavens that Jones deserves to be a first-round pick. That, however, isn’t the case. As a result, I actually believe his ADP is too high given the lack of apparent opportunities for touches in this backfield. You should take his potential lack of volume into account come draft day.