IDP Rookies to Watch: NFC Edition

Welcome, #4EYEDfans, to the first installment of IDP In Frames! This week, we will take a look at the landscape of the NFC when it comes to IDP. More specifically, we will take a look at the NFC rookies in a position to make an impact in 2020!

 

The landscape of fantasy football is ever-changing, especially the IDP segment. Each year, a new draft class comes in and injects some new blood into the league. Just as the offensive side gets some shiny new toys to play with, the defensive side of the ball is blessed with the same rewards. This year was no different! Well, this draft was completely different, since it was during the quarantine period and was all done electronically, but that had no impact on the talent.  

 

When forecasting for success, there are a few key factors that will outline a rookie’s potential for immediate success vs. a more “long-term” approach.  

 

1. Playing time: Captain Obvious speaks again. If you can stay on the field, the likelihood of success goes hand in hand. While some players can return dividends with splash plays in limited samples, if I am going to invest in a rookie on the defensive side of the ball, I am going for snap share/playing time.
2. Scheme: This is a little more difficult to project, providing the ever-changing landscape and coaching carousel. Hypothetically speaking, if a prototypical edge rusher goes to a blitz-heavy scheme, there would seem to be a fit.
3. Talent: Looks like Captain Obvious is trying to make a recurring role in this article. While there are players every year that underwhelm the pundits when it comes to athletic ability, yet put up dazzling numbers, a forecast or projection is typically easier when there are underlying metrics to help support the argument.  

 

While these indicators are great tools to utilize, given the strange situation with the COVID-19 and lack of OTAs, I wonder if the rookies on the defensive side of the ball will have a more difficult time adjusting to the defensive schemes.  

 

Immediate Options

 

Isaiah Simmons-LB-Arizona Cardinals

Let’s begin by saying that it is challenging to project what position Simmons may play for Ari is going to be a chore.  Last year, Simmons played 40% of his snaps at Slot Cornerback, 26.1% at Safety, 20% at OLB, and 11% at ILB (per @ESPNCFB).  I don’t know if there is a more versatile player coming into the league?  While I wouldn’t expect Simmons to play CB at the NFL level, I do believe that he will be comfortable matching up against slot corners, RB’s, and will line up in multiple different positions over the field.

The Cardinals blitzed the 3rd most times last year, but only had a 20% Hurry Rate. Simmons’ speed (4.39 40-time) and ability to get to the QB (8 sacks in ’19) should help with those percentages.  In addition to the pass rush, his tackling ability (104 Total Tackles) and pass coverage isn’t anything to shake a stick at (3INT). The 2019 Dick Butkus Award winner ranked in the top 10 in the ACC in Tackles, TFL, Sacks, and Ints.   This “Swiss-Army” style of defensive player will fit in with the Cardinals D that could be one of the more exciting defenses to monitor this season. Currently being taken at LB 54 in IDP redraft leagues, but 18th in dynasty shows that while this season may not produce LB1/LB2 numbers, the sky’s the limit for Simmons!

 

Xavier McKinney-S-New York Giants

The Giants brought in new DC Patrick Graham, and along with a new DC comes a handful of defensive upgrades via FA and the Draft.  The most notable defensive upgrade is the Safety out of Alabama, Xavier McKinney.  McKinney was 2nd in the SEC in solo tackles, 1st in Forced Fumbles, and top 10 in Total Tackles and Interceptions.  I believe that McKinney can step into that Free Safety role for NY immediately and contribute out of the gate.  The Giants were pretty poor across the board last year (25th Total Yards Allowed, 28th in Pass Yds Allowed, 26th in TD’s scored against, and 20th in Rush Yds allowed), and therefore the focus on the defensive side of the ball was an offseason priority.  The acquisitions of Bradberry at CB, Martinez at ILB, and a full season of Leonard Williams,  and the addition of McKinney should improve their defense across the board.

Replacing the role of Antoine Bethea in the Giants secondary most likely means that there will be plenty of plays coming his way.  The Giants faced the 5th most offensive plays, and even with the improved defense, they should still be in the top 10 when it comes to opportunities.  I believe McKinney’s ability to always be around the ball makes him an intriguing “watch and see” type of player in a redraft IDP league.  Currently, not in the top 36 of redraft leagues, I think McKinney’s ability to play both at the line of scrimmage as well as in coverage, there should be plenty of tackles, as well as the impact, or splash, plays. Dynasty drafts are seeing McKinney being drafted around DB15, which I think could turn into an absolute steal!

Chase Young-Edge-Washinton Redskins

What are the criteria needed to project a positive outcome and IDP friendly rookie projection?

1.  Opportunity/Playing Time-Chase Young will enter the 2020 season and slot in immediately in the Edge/OLB position.  Washington has built a pretty impressive defense over the past few years with the drafting of Young, Montez Sweat, and Jonathan Allen.  In addition to the draft picks, they have signed Thomas Davis Sr, Kendall Fuller, and Landon Collins.
2. Scheme-The improving Redskins defense will take on the philosophies of new HC Ron Rivera and new DC, Jack Del Rio.  The first change on the defensive side of the ball is the switch to the 4-3 base vs the previous 3-4.  Del Rio brings with him a solid history of quality defensive teams and 3 separate stints as DC.  His 1st go-round as DC was in Carolina in 2002.  Taking that 28th ranked defense from the previous year, he immediately guided them to a top 2 finish.  Coincidentally enough, he had joined them the year they selected a certain DE, Julius Peppers.  Peppers, like Young, was the 2nd overall pick in the draft, and contributed immediately (35Tackles, 5FF, 12sacks).  Del Rio then went to Denver 10 years later, and also had a pretty gifted OLB named Von Miller.  Miller also put up some pretty impressive numbers that year. (64 total tackles, 11 sacks, 29 QB hits)  It’s safe to say that Young could be in a position to carry the torch of elite edge rushers at Del Rio’s disposal.
3. Talent-This goes without saying.  The 2nd overall pick in the draft, and widely considered, the best talent in the 2020 class!  Coming off of a Jr year in which he led the NCAA in sacks (16.5), Forced Fumbles (7), and Tackles for loss (21).  At 6’4”/235, he has the blend of size, speed, and system designed to make an immediate impact.

 

Situations to Watch

Yetur Gross-Matos-Edge-Carolina Panthers

When Gross-Matos fell to the Carolina Panthers at pick 38, their draft card couldn’t have been turned in any faster.  The 6’5″ 265lb defensive end out of Penn State racked up 94 tackles, 17 sacks, 34.5 tackles for loss, and 2 forced fumbles in just 24 games over 2 years.  The Panthers, under new HC Matt Rhule and DC Phil Snow, are returning the 4-3 scheme that they had run during the majority of Ron Rivera’s tenure in Carolina.  While Snow believes that there will be multiple sets, false fronts, and whatever is best suited to fit his personnel.  It wouldn’t shock me at all to even see him run with a 3-3-5 scheme to mimic his days at Baylor.  You can read more here.

While I truly believe that Gross-Matos has the physical tools to make an immediate impact, it will entirely come down to playing time and opportunity with Carolina.  While the switch from 3-4 to 4-3 will take a toll on their sack totals (2nd in the NFL last year), I think it fits the personnel.  They drafted Derrick Brown in the 1st, followed by Gross-Matos and Jeremy Chinn in the 2nd.  These moves should help considerably this year, especially considering they face the combo of Mahomes, Brees, Brady, Ryan, Kyler, Stafford, Cousins, and Rodgers a combined 11 times!   Will Gross-Matos find enough playing time this year with Weatherly at the LDE and Kawaan Short at the RDE?  If Snow is creative and can get Gross-Matos snaps, he has the ability to produce.

Jeremy Chinn-SS-Carolina Panthers

As I mentioned in the write-up for Gross-Matos, the Panthers used all 7 of their draft picks on the defense, and maybe none of them have a higher IDP outlook than Chinn.  Jeremy Chinn is a 2nd round pick (64th overall) with a nasty demeanor and the size to back it up.  At 6’3”, 220lbs, he has the size to be a physical presence, yet he has the athletic ability (4.45 40/41″ vertical and 11’6” broad jump) to roam the field, indicative of his 4 INT’s last year.  His blend of size and speed captured the eyes of the Panthers, especially coming from an FCS school, but it might have been his bloodline that made them confident in turning in the card on the safety out of Southern Illinois.  His uncle is Steve Atwater, the Broncos Hall of Fame safety!

Playing time is the only thing holding me back from making Chinn an immediate rookie to watch.  As I have mentioned with other rookies, the lack of OTA’s and team growth stunts my projections, but I think Chinn has the ability and situation to produce massive numbers.  After a consensus All American season in 2019, Chinn was invited to the Senior Bowl, where he really turned some heads.  Let’s not forget that Chinn is also going to potentially slot into that SS role with Carolina, where just last year, Eric Reid tallied 130 tackles and 4 sacks.  I am also a little more than intrigued to see what type of role Snow might have for Chinn this year.  Go Salukis

 

Thank you all for reading, as this wraps up my coverage of my IDP In Frames: NFC Rookie Edition. I hope you enjoyed it, and am always here at @natemarcum to answer all questions.