We continue to crunch the numbers and look at the tea leaves to figure out who the best Plays and Faces for IDP fantasy football are from week to week.
Below are my educated guesses of players to Play and others to Fade for Week 3 of the NFL season. As we continue to get more data, we get a better idea of who to lean on throughout the season.
In the early going, play your studs. Don’t try to get too cute with it. But I am going to give you some players I think could have a better week than expected or might have a worse game than predicted.
Below are my early educated guesses of players to our IDP Plays And Fades: Week 3 (2024) of the NFL season.
Here we go!
Defensive Linemen:
Plays
- Keion White, DL Patriots at Jets
- White might be the biggest surprise of the season so far on the interior defensive line. The second-year pro has taken a huge jump this season. White has 11 tackles, four sacks, and a forced fumble through the first two games of the season.
- His 21.4% win rate on pass rush attempts has been fantastic. White is also third in the league with a 92.8% PFF grade on pass rushes. If you are in a true defensive IDP league, he is a must start at DT every week at this point.
- Dexter Lawrence, DL Giants at Browns
- For all the high-priced pass rushers and top draft picks on the Giants defense, it is the old stand-by Lawrence who has been the most productive. He has seven tackles, one sack and nine QB pressures. His 88.2 PFF pass rush grade is currently eighth among all defensive lineman in the NFL.
- Lawrence has the fourth-most QB pressures in the league, and the ninth-best pass-rush win rate at 25.5%.
- Trey Hendrickson, DE Bengals vs Commanders
- Hendricks has had solid numbers to start his season. He has six tackles, two sacks, with three QB hits, and seven QB pressures.
- But the advance metrics are even better. He has an overall PFF grade of 84.4 with a spectacular 29.2% win rate on pass rush attempts. That is second only to the Lions Aidan Hutchinson who has an incredible 41.2% pass rush win rate.
Fades
- Pat Jones II, DE Vikings vs Texans
- The production is currently better than the metrics. Jones is second in the league with four sacks in two games, but don’t get ahead of yourself. That matches his career high for a full season.
- His 9.5% pass rush win rate is very average. Jones also only has a 59.9 PFF pass rush grade so far this season, which ranks 141st among defensive lineman.
- Harold Landry, OLB/DE Titans vs Packers
- Landry has back-to-back double-digit sack seasons, and has already chalked up three sacks this season, but will that production continue?
- He has an abysmal 2.1% win rate on pass rush attempts this season. That ranks 223rd in the league. Only three players have a lower win rate at this point of the season who have a win rate above 0.0%.
- Preston Smith and Rashan Gary, DE Packers vs the Titans
- This duo was expected to bring it this season for the Packers. So far that has not been the case. While both players have played 100% of pash rush snaps this season, their win rate on pass rush attempts is 2.2 and 2.0, respectively.
- Smith and Gary have six tackles combined and one sack. Smith has zero QB pressures, while Gary has one. This could be a get right spot against the Titans, but I need to see it before I’m getting either of them in my lineups.
Linebackers
Plays
- Logan Wilson, LB Bengals vs Commanders
- Wilson has been all over the field on defense this season. Wilson has 12 tackles in each of the first two games. Washington QB Jaydon Daniels will be expected to scramble in this one, giving Wilson even more opportunities for tackles. He also has the top pass rush grade among inside linebackers at 83.3 per PFF.
- Wilson currently has the highest PFF grade of his career (87.4), which is currently fifth among middle linebackers this season. He has one of the highest snap counts in the league (129), and that should not change anytime soon with the Bengals struggling to run the football and control the clock.
- Bobby Wagner, LB Commanders at Bengals
- I just mentioned above that the Bengals have struggled to run the ball this season. They are currently ranked 30 out of 32 teams.
- Wagner has the best rush defense grade among LBs with a 90.9 PFF score. He should be able to stack up the Bengals run game and add IDP points to your starting lineup.
- Robert Spillane, LB Raiders vs Panthers
- The Panthers are a complete disaster to start the season. They have already benched QB Bryce Young after only two games, and are now starting Andy Dalton. That means running the football, which should give Spillane a chance to rack up some tackles.
- Spillane has 20 tackles already this season and an interception. Spillane is in the top 12 in run defense grade (79.1) and has the second-best pass rush grade for an off-the-ball LB with an 82.1 PFF grade.
Fades
- Jerome Baker, LB Seahawks vs Dolphins
- Baker is currently ranked 33rd among LBs against the run according to PFF with a 66.9 score. He has a 3.6% stop percentage against running plays this season, which ranks in the bottom 20% of the league for off-the-ball LBs.
- Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is out indefinitely after suffering a concussion last week. While this seems like the perfect time to play Baker against a team that needs to run the football, I look at it differently. I’m not sure the Dolphins can keep the offense on the field in this game. I’m not buying Baker’s ability against the run to add much to his nine tackles so far this season.
- Denzel Perryman, LB Chargers at Steelers
- Perryman has 12 tackles and one sack this season, but he has a terrible missed tackle rate of 36.4% with a defensive run grade of 38.4 PFF grade, which ranks 71st among LBs.
- Daiyan Henley leads the Chargers’ LBs in snap share with 83 total snaps. Perryman has 61 snaps, while rookie Junior Colson has 42 snaps. I believe Colson, who injured his hamstring last week, will slowly eat into Perryman’s snap share as the season continues if he can stay healthy.
- Drue Tranquill, LB Chiefs at Falcons
- When the Chiefs let Willie Gay walk in the offseason and extended Tranquill this felt like a jolt to his IDP value. Through two weeks this season, that hasn’t seemed to be the case. Nick Bolton is still the man for the Chiefs, but Leo Chenal is making a case for earning more playing time over Tranquill.
- Chenal has been much more active and has so far earned the fourth-best PFF grade this season for LBs with an 87.5 grade on 80 snaps. Tranquil has a 46.6 PFF grade on 118 snaps. This is not the trend I want to see as a Tranquill owner.
Defensive Backs
Plays
- Alontae Taylor, CB Saints vs Eagles
- Taylor was one of the breakout IDP stars in Week 1 after he chalked up three sacks from the slot CB position against the Panthers to go along with six tackles and a pass defensed. He didn’t slow down in Week 2 adding nine tackles, eight solo, against the Cowboys.
- Taylor has played 97 out of 112 defensive snaps as the slot CB or in the box. That is the type of usage that screams “Play Me!” in IDP leagues. Taylor has the second-highest CB pass rush grade per PFF in the league at 91.7. Hopefully the Saints continue to keep using him coming off the edge from the secondary.
- DeShon Elliot, S Steelers vs Chargers
- Elliot has been the fourth-best rated safety according to PFF with an 88.7 grade. He has 13 tackles, two pass breakups, and an interception this season.
- Elliot has 25 box snaps and 41 slot CB snaps this season. He has slid back to free safety deep coverage on 22 snaps. It’s clear so far this season that the Steelers like playing him near the line of scrimmage. He currently has the third-best run defense grade among safeties and the fourth-best pass grade.
- Nick Cross, S Colts vs Bears
- This one is interesting. Cross has not been great this year analytically, but he has been off the charts as far as IDP production. Julian Blackmon missed last week with an injured shoulder, and is in doubt again. Usually a player that plays mostly free safety snaps isn’t great for fantasy, but the Colts have been downright awful against the run this season. They are dead last with over 237 yards allowed per game, and now the biggest run stuffer, DeForest Buckner has been put on IR.
- Cross leads the NFL with 29 tackles despite only playing 47 snaps in the box and 71 at free safety. The people in front of Cross aren’t getting better, in fact the injuries are making them worse. The flood of production from Cross could keep up in the coming weeks. Cross currently is the fourth best safety against the run according to PFF with a score of 81.2, and the Colts need all the help they can get against the run these days.
Fades
- C.J. Gardner-Johnson, S Eagles at Saints
- Gardner-Johnson came back to the Eagles hoping to regain the form from earlier in his career. But it has not been pretty so far. Despite playing 45% of his snaps at slot CB or in the box, he has only 11 tackles on the season and is the worst ranked safety out of 67 in the league against the run according to PFF.
- The Eagles secondary was an issue last year and it looks like it could be a problem yet again. If Gardner-Johnson doesn’t improve his play there are some highly drafted younger players waiting in the wings to cut into his playing time.
- Jeremy Chinn, S Commanders at Bengals
- Chinn was on my fades list going into Week 1 of the season. I said this, “Chinn needs to prove he can come back after a super disappointing season in Carolina last year. I’m not burying him yet, but I’m cautious.” Well it might be time to think about burying Chinn now.
- Chinn has four tackles and a fumble recovery, thank goodness, in two games this season. He is currently ranked in the bottom quarter of every defensive metric PFF grades for safeties. Chinn has 71 snaps in the box or at slot CB compared with 35 plays in deep coverage, but he has failed to do anything with that usage.
- Jordan Fuller, S Panthers at Raiders
- I’m not sure how many people were still holding out some hope for Fuller as an IDP asset this season, but the first two games of the season aren’t a ringing endorsement. Fuller has played 84 of 129 snaps at free safety. On top of that he is currently ranked 77 out of 78 safeties with a PFF grade of 41.4.
- The Panthers look like an utter disaster, meaning teams should route them, get up early and run the ball. This does not bode well for any type of IDP production from Fuller this season. He is basically droppable in most leagues.
