IDP Impact in the NFC West

Welcome, 4EYEDfans!  I hope you all are staying safe!  I know the Fantasy In Frames crew is preparing for football, and I hope you are as well!

Welcome to the 7th installment of my new series, titled “IDP Impact,” where I will take you from division to division, highlighting the IDP relevant players for each team.  A team-based approach focusing on the scheme, with attention to the offensive side of the ball, should help us identify my personal favorite IDP safe plays and deep dive targets.

For this installment, we will head to the NFC WEST!

 

Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals this year should be one of the most dynamic, high-flying, and exciting teams to watch in the NFL, let alone the NFC West.  They went out this offseason and acquired DeAndre Hopkins via trade with the Houston Texans, and matched that exciting trade with an amazing draft and FA period on defense.  Vance Joseph enters his 2nd year as Defensive Coordinator. Last year, Joseph and the Cardinals finished 28th in overall defense, 31st in passing, and 24th in rushing.  Needless to say, there is plenty of growth needed to turn this defense into a top unit.  So what have they done in the draft and via FA to address these needs?

The 2020 NFL draft was a victorious one for Arizona in my opinion.  They traded away their 2nd round pick in the Hopkins trade but used their 1st rounder on one of the most diverse players in the draft, Isaiah Simmons.  Simmons is definitely an IDP target of mine, not only in dynasty formats.  You can read more about why I think Simmons has IDP upside here.  In addition to the Simmons pick, Evan Weaver is a capable LB out of Cal that led the FBS in tackles per game and is the only LB since 2000 to record 3- 20+ tackle games.  Playing time will be an issue with Hicks locked up until 2023, but if there is a vacancy or role to fill, Weaver is ready and capable to jump right in.

Free agency was an area of attention this offseason.  With the holes in the defense, the Cardinals looked to fill those with key pieces.  The only IDP relevant acquisition was De’Vondre Campbell.  Campbell comes over from the Falcons after his best season to date!  Tallying 129 tackles (75 solo), 2 sacks, 3 FF, and 5 PD, Campbell was the real asset to the Falcons defense, despite limiting Deion Jones’ upside last year.  Will Campbell have the same effect on the Arizona linebackers?

So who am I targeting this year in Arizona?

• Chandler Jones–Jones, last year, was one of the most productive LB in the NFL last year.  He averaged 13.8 fppg, had 19 sacks, 8 FF, 11 TFL, 5 PD, and 3 FR!  While replication of those numbers will very difficult, there is good reason to believe in the floor, since he has totaled double-digit sack and TFL the past 5 years.
• Jordan Hicks–The Cardinals took a mighty big risk in signing Hicks to a pretty substantial contract (20M guaranteed), but it definitely panned out last year.  For only the 2nd time in his career, Hicks played all 16 games.  After missing time in 2017 and 2018, Hicks played all 16 last year and capitalized, to the tune of 150 tackles (4th in the NFL).  In addition to the eye-popping tackle totals, he also added 3 INT, 6 PD, and 1.5 sacks, which led to the 2nd most IDP points in 2019 (15.4 pFFG).   Most likely to lose some tackles with the addition of both Campbell and Simmons, Hicks is still an LB1 in 2020.
• Budda Baker–If not for Logan Ryan, Budda Baker would have been the #1 DB in IDP scoring last season.  Led all DB in tackles (147 combined, 104 solo), and was top 5 in TFL.  Baker averaged 13.8 fppg, and is likely to repeat as a true DB1, but again, with the addition of Simmons, and his multi-position potential, I am not looking at Baker replicating the extremely high tackle ratios.  I do have him as one of the first DB off the board tho!

 

Los Angeles Rams

 

The 2020 Rams will have some new looks for sure!  The new stadium will most definitely be something to make the “fans” happy (if they are allowed in).  The other “new” thing, that fans might not be so happy about is the player at ILB.  Cory Littleton left via FA to the Las Vegas Raiders.  Littleton, an undrafted rookie in 2016 has turned himself into one of the best IDP LB in the NFL.  The Rams will definitely miss his services and are hard-pressed to replace him.

New Defensive Coordinator, Brandon Staley will look to improve upon a defense that ranked 17th overall, 12th vs the run, and 19th vs the pass.  Staley will have a much easier time improving the passing game numbers with a full season of Jalen Ramsey.  Acquired in a trade with Jacksonville last year in week 7.  Ramsey is a legit shut-down corner, and like most shut down cornerbacks, he won’t see enough action to warrant IDP consideration.  Opposite of him is Troy Hill, who took over for an injured Aquib Talib, and responded with a career season.  Like Ramsey, he doesn’t warrant IDP consideration.  While the Cornerbacks in LA wont receive much IDP consideration, the safeties in their secondary are both gold!!!

• John Johnson III-The 3rd round pick out of B.C. is looking to bounce back from an injury-shortened 2019!  Johnson took the league by storm in 2018, registering 119 tackles (82 solo), with 11 PD and 4 INT’s.  2019 started off with the same momentum until a shoulder injury cost him the season. Through 5 games, JJIII already 51 tackles (24 solo) and 2 INT.  This year, with a full season of Jalen Ramsey, I fully expect the Rams to allow JJIII the freedom to roam!  With a healthy season, I would fully expect the 12.2 fppg average to be the new norm and should be a solid DB1 investment.
• Taylor Rapp– Rapp is one of the up and coming stars at the Safety position.  Last year, he totaled 100 tackles as a rookie in a little over 75% of the snaps. PFF grades him out as an exceptional tackler and has shown he can defend the pass with his 8 PD and 2 INT.  His ability to play all over the field has me investing early in this IDP.  I would look for him to repeat similar numbers to last year where he averaged 10.2 fppg, putting him firmly into the DB1/DB2 conversation.

As you can tell, the Rams safeties are locked and loaded for IDP dominance this season, but they are not the only relevant players going into 2020.  There is a former DPOY, that would warrant your fantasy consideration:

Aaron Donald–Donald will be drafted as one of the top picks this year in IDP formats.  It’s pretty amazing that a 12.5 sack, 48 tackle, 20 TFL, and 2 FF season is a letdown by his standards (10.3 fppg). Just a year removed from his 20.5 sack season with 25 TFL, the floor has dropped just a little by all accounts.  Needless to say, I still think he is the most dominant DL in the NFL.   That being said, the supporting cast isn’t what it once was, leaving him to be double and triple-teamed at an even higher rate, if that is possible.  Don’t mistake this as a reason to not draft Donald!  Invest Invest Invest

 

Seattle Seahawks

Defensive Coordinator Ken Norton Jr is primed and ready to return the Seahawks to defensive prominence!  Once regarded as the most feared defensive unit in the game, the FA losses and moves over the past few seasons have taken away a lot of the key pieces.   Ranked 22nd in the NFL in 2019 (27th v pass/22nd v run), the Seahawks knew they had to do something to change their fortune.

How can you immediately change a teams’ defense?  You go out and trade for one of the league’s most dominant and feared players!  Jamal Adams is the answer to the aforementioned question!  The Seahawks gave up a lot to acquire the former 6th overall pick (2-1st rounders, a 3rd rounder, and Bradley McDougal), but in return will get a player who is PFF’s #2 Tackling Safety, 2nd in Pass Rush among Safeties, and 7th in Coverage!  Real football ability aside, he is also one of, if not the best DB to target in your IDP drafts!  Averaging 14 fppg over the past 2 years, Adams has never had less than 60 solo tackles in his career.  This biggest aspect to pay attention to is the role and scheme that he will have in Seattle vs New York.  If we just put Adams into the Bradley McDougal role, there could be a good reason to drop Adams just a few spots in your overall rankings.  McDougal’s .5 sack, 1 TFL, and 2 QB hits is the most troubling.  While Seattle may allow Adams a little more pass-rushing flexibility, it’s hard to see a complete scheme change.  At the end of the day, you have an incredible Safety in a new situation that, ability alone, should be a legit DB1.

Seattle may not be blessed in regards to having the best defensive unit in football, but they are blessed in IDP talent.  We already touched on an elite DB in Jamal Adams, but let’s move to the LB core and dive into 2 IDP targets that you can’t overlook.

K.J. Wright–Coming off of one of his best seasons to date, Wright put together his 5th 100+ tackle season out of the past 6.  Entering 2019, after an injury-plagued 2018, Wright had 11 PD (career-high), 132 tackles (career-high), and 3 INT (career-high), resulting in 11.9 fppg.   The easy takeaway is to let your league-mates reach for 2019 production.  I would have to agree with that, but if he starts to fall, I wouldn’t have any problems grabbing him as my LB2.  My biggest concern this year is the 1:1 ratio of solo: assist tackles.

Bobby Wagner–You’re on the clock in the 1st round of your IDP draft and you don’t know who to pick!  I like to follow a tried and true method my parents taught me at an early age.  Keep It Simple Stupid (K.I.S.S.). Draft Bobby Wagner.  That isn’t to say that he should be the consensus 1st pick, but if you’re looking for a stable floor and one of the highest ceilings in the game, just K.I.S.S.! Since 2016, Wagner has had finishes of 4th, 6th, 4th, 1st, in fantasy points per game.  Last years’ 14.5 fppg were on the back of a league-high 159 tackles and 3 sacks.  In Wagners’ entire NFL career, he has never had less than 100 tackles and has never played less than 11 games.  Absolute IDP STUD!

 

San Fransisco 49ers

 

The NFC Champion 49ers are by and large, one of the best defenses in the NFL!  Robert Saleh had taken this team that finished 28th in overall defense in 2018 and transformed them into the 8th ranked defense in 2019!  The transformation wasn’t entire new personnel, even though the pieces helped.  It was a mindset and philosophy that permeated throughout the entire team!  Fast forward to 2020 and some things have changed but as a whole, there’s optimism.

The defensive line is going to miss DeForest Buckner.  That is obvious.  His 7.5 sacks, 2 FF, 62 tackles, and 14 Qb hits will be missed.  To help offset the loss, the 49ers addressed the vacancy by drafting Javon Kinlaw.  Kinlaw is a violent force from South Carolina that should immediately fill in the hole at DT.  Kinlaw will be a much better NFL DT than an IDP target.  On the other hand, his linemate is quickly becoming an IDP cornerstone!  The younger brother of Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa is a star in the making!  Bosa’s rookie season was enough to make anyone ecstatic! The 2019 AP Defensive Rookie of the Year is fresh off of a 9.5 sack, 2 FR, 47 tackle, 16 tackles for a loss and 25 QB hit season.  The loss of Buckner will undoubtedly impact Bosa’s production in 2020, to what extent is yet to be determined.  In most formats, he is likely to finish as a DL1, just a tier below his brother.  What a family!

As I mentioned earlier, the 49ers defense was one of the best units in all of football last year.  It wasn’t just the interior lineman spearheading that charge, the LB core was, and will be led by Fred Warner!  You want to talk about an athletic freak!  If you haven’t seen his martial arts display, check it out here.  No Seriously!  Check it out…I’ll wait.   Welcome Back.  If that doesn’t have you moving him up a few rounds, nothing will.  Honestly, you dont’ score points for flying knees or spinning heel kicks or punches (just ask Myles Garrett).  What you do score points for, is defensive production on the field, and Warner can back that up for sure.  In Warners’ two seasons with the 49ers, he has totaled 242 tackles(174 solo), 15 PD, and 10 TFL.  His 13.2 fppg last year firmly placed him in the LB1 conversation.

 

That wraps up this tour of the NFC WEST!  As always, if you have any questions or comments, please reach me directly on twitter @natemarcum.  Stay Safe!