Welcome, 4EYEDfans! I hope you all are staying safe! I know the Fantasy In Frames crew is preparing for football, and I hope you are as well!
Welcome to the 5th installment of my new series, titled “IDP Impact,” where I will take you from division to division, highlighting the IDP relevant players for each team. A team-based approach focusing on the scheme, with attention to the offensive side of the ball, should help us identify my personal favorite IDP safe plays and deep dive targets.
For this installment, we will head to the NFC NORTH!
Detroit Lions
They say “Hope Springs Eternal”! This phrase seems to be spoken a lot in July and August in Detroit, to only be shot down by November. Will this year be different? Will the “new-look” Lions defense improve from last year? There are a million questions, and it is always fun to have “HOPE”. Matt Patricia and Paul Pasqualoni enter 2020 optimistic, most likely because, on the defensive side of the ball, there is nowhere else to go but up. The defensive unit as a whole, finished 26th in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, 21st in rushing yards and dead last in passing yards allowed.
The Lions have made wholesale changes across the defense. The defensive line added Danny Shelton via FA, who averaged 5.5 fppg with New England in 2019. The remaining pieces of the defensive line comprise of Trey Flowers and a mix and match group who will hopefully improve the sack totals from last year that ranked 31st in the NFL.
The next line of defense, the linebackers, haven’t exactly made significant improvements from 2019. Gone is Devon Kennard, and in his place is Jamie Collins, the ex-Patriot LB that should have no problem becoming comfortable in Patricia’s defense. Last year, Collins averaged 12.1 fppg, and could be in a position to contribute if the Lions’ quick scoring offense keeps the defense on the field. At a position as valuable as LB, yet so deep, Collins could be somebody to pay attention to late, but given the Lions’ lack of blitzes in comparison to the Patriots (18% v 37%), Collins isn’t likely to replicate the 7 sacks from last season.
When you are dead last in the league in passing yards allowed, there’s pretty much only room to grow, if we are staying with the “hope” theme of this breakdown. If I am hopeful for one thing, that would be Tracy Walker! Walker was a stud last year, and with the loss of Darius Slay, will be needed again to take that next step. On a per-game basis, Walker was at or near the top in Solo Tackles (82), and passes defended (8). Missing time last year due to minor injuries could drop him in drafts, be ready to pounce.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers enter 2020 on the heels of an amazing season on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Aaron and Aaron were both very impressive, en route to a 13-3 finish and a disappointing Conference Championship loss to the 49ers. While the offense was a surprise with the apparent lack of weapons for Rodgers, the defense made a very surprising turnaround. While the turnaround was very obvious in the points allowed department, where they went from 22nd in 2018 to 9th in 2019, it might have been aided by a little smoke and mirrors. The total yardage and yards allowed on the ground and in the air were nearly identical to the 2018 totals. “So what changed”. Turnovers! They went from 29th in the league all the way to 7th. While I think that personnel improvement can lead to an increase in turnovers, the likelihood of a repeat of such drastic improvement is pretty low. Kevin King (CB) actually had almost as many INT in 2019 as the whole team in 2018. King, who averaged an excellent 10.2 fppg is due for some regression, as most of his value was tied to the INT. Considering he was 6th in the NFL in Int/target, if teams continue to attack him (24.2% target rate), there could be sneaky value if he falls drastically. Considering that CB’s aren’t the typical IDP targets, he could slip through the cracks.
While the improvements on defense primarily stemmed from the turnover quotient working in their favor, the play at linebacker was a definite positive. This year, they go into the season losing, arguably, their best LB in Blake Martinez. Martinez is coming off of a magnificent season in which he tallied 155 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF, 2 PD, and 5 TFL. While filling the void of Martinez is not a likely task, the addition of Christian Kirksey from Cleveland should help lessen the blow. Kirksey, when healthy, has proven to be a disruptor in the middle. In 2017, his last healthy season, he piled up 138 tackles, 5 PD, 6 TFL, and 3.5 sacks. After back to back injury-riddled seasons, Kirksey might just slip enough to allow you the opportunity to grab him super late and return an upside LB2 value.
The Packers are definitely in a good situation at the LB position. In addition to Kirksey, Za’Darius Smith is coming off of a very nice year (10.3 fppg) in which he put together 13.5 sacks and 17 TFL. While the tackle totals might be a little low (55 combined), if your league rewards TFL and sacks heavier than tackles, Smith could be a great value later in drafts.
Chicago Bears
The Monsters of the Midway are primed and ready to repeat, and potentially improve upon, a great 2019 season on the defensive side of the ball. I am very fortunate to be able to compose an article on the Bears without having to remember the 2019 season on the offensive side. The Bears had the NFL’s 4th ranked defense in 2019, and have a true opportunity to be the best defense in the NFL in 2020! That might not be a bold statement, considering they were 4th last year, but I truly believe they could return to 2018 form, which saw them be absolutely dominant as the NFL’s #1 defense. Chuck Pagano, the Bears’ DC, is ready to put the players in the best opportunity to utilize their talents.
The secondary was good last year. They finished 9th in passing yards allowed and 4th in passing TD’s allowed. How can the Bears improve? To start, with the loss of Ha Ha Clinton Dix, Pagano plans to move Eddie Jackson back to FS, his more logical position to highlight his talents. Jackson, who was really in the Strong Safety position for the majority of the 2019 season, looks to get back to his 2018 production, where his ball-hawking ability translated to 6 INT, 2 TD, 15 PD’s, in only 14 games! While this improvement would be increasingly important for the Bears defense as a whole, it would be a risky pick from an IDP standpoint to try and strike while the turnover iron is hot.
In all fairness, the front 7 for the Bears this year is where all the IDP gold is buried! The defensive line returns Akiem Hicks, while it may not be an IDP player to address, his involvement and presence will benefit the guys I’m looking to target.
- Danny Trevathan-Missed 7 games last year due to an elbow injury, but the Bears seem to think he should recover fine considering they just signed him to a 3-year extension. When on the field, Trevathan is a solid contributor across the board. In 9 games last year, he averaged 11.5 fppg. Currently an afterthought in most drafts, he could return LB3 value if healthy.
- Robert Quinn–The prize of the offseason for the Bears. (sorry Nick Foles). Quinn is coming off of one of the more impressive seasons in 2019. He averaged 9.3 fppg, recorded 10.5 sacks (most since 2013) in only 14 games. He is very similar to Hicks in that while he might not have the IDP relevant numbers at LB, his presence will only elevate the others around him.
- Roquan Smith–Smith is the player to own out of all the Bears LB’s when it comes to the most stable floor and high upside! Smith’s 12.6 fppg last year resulted in an LB2 finish on a per-game basis, but there is an LB1 upside. If not for a torn pectoral muscle, the production last year would have been better, I believe. The addition of Quinn and the health of Hicks and Trevathan should help considerably.
- Khalil Mack–While Smith is the LB to own for stability, I think Mack is the LB who is in line for the biggest improvement from 2019. Offensive lines were keying on Mack and really hindered his efficiency in getting to the QB. Mack was 7th in QB hurries last year, while only recording 8.5 sacks (lowest since rookie season). I expect a return to double-digit sack totals and a return to IDP relevance. If you’re lucky and your league gives multiple position eligibility to Mack, like our 4-Eyed Championship does, you could have an elite level DL taken as a late-round LB. KNOW YOUR LEAGUE POSITION AND SCORING SETTINGS!
Minnesota Vikings
The final destination on our tour of the NFC North is the home of the Purple People Eaters, Minneapolis, Minnesota. Last year, the Vikings improved upon a very good year defensively in 2018 and turned in a top 5 production in 2019. The passing defense was top 5 in yards allowed as well as leading the league in fewest passing TD allowed. The rushing D wasn’t quite as dominant as the pass D, but an overall 15th finish in both yards and TD allowed was all they needed to go 10-6, earn a playoff berth, and reach the divisional series vs the 49ers.
The defense was more than dominant between the 20’s, resulting in a top 2 finish in red zone percentage. If you can’t get into the RZ, it is increasingly difficult to score TD’s against this defense. While the defense has been one of the more dominant and consistent units over the past few years, there have been some changes that could impact this years’ team. First, Xavier Rhodes, as suspected, has been signed by the Colts. In another cost-saving move, Everson Griffin wasn’t resigned, as was Trae Waynes and Stephen Weatherly. These moves on the defensive side are pretty impactful, but the loss of Stephon Diggs is going to put the most pressure on the defense to perform. So what can we expect from the Vikings in regards to IDP?
First, let’s take a look at some of the changes with the Vikings’ coaching personnel. Mike Zimmer, while being the Head Coach, will have a huge say when it comes to the defense. In addition to Zimmer, the Vikings plan on using a brain-trust of Adam Zimmer and Andre Patterson as Co-Defensive coordinators. The hiring of Dom Capers simply adds to an already impressive group. Capers, who is known for his 3-4 blitz schemes, has given Zimmer some ideas about switching up the scheme a little, but I wouldn’t’ assume a full transition to a 3-4.
Who am I looking at on the defensive side in regards to IDP? Let’s start with the most abundant position in IDP formats, the LB. Eric Kendricks, MLB, enters his 6th year with Minnesota on the heels of his best season to date. He tallied 110 tackles (70 solo), 2 FF, and had 12 Passes defended. With the above discussion of the switch to a potential 3-4 scheme at times, I have to wonder how his role would be affected. Currently being drafted as the LB 22, there is a potential upside if the offense happens to take a step back with the loss of Diggs. It’s also fair to point out the fact that with the loss of key players on the defense, Kendricks will be asked to make more plays than ever before. One worth keeping an eye on!
While the linebackers traditionally are the players worth owning in IDP, every so often there is an impact DL that is too good to pass up and worth the early-round investment. That player is none other than Danielle Hunter! Hunter is one of, if not the top DL taken in 2020 drafts! What isn’t to like? Back to back 14.5 sacks seasons with over 70 tackles each season, and a combined 36 tackles for loss! If you want to watch just how disruptive he can be, click here. Hunter’s three forced fumbles are just the icing on the cake. Seeing as how he has averaged almost a full point per game more than the next closest DL at 12.2 fppg, you will need to invest early if you want to secure his talents. My personal draft strategy when it comes to IDP is to take one of these game-changing DL first because after the elite 2 or 3 are gone, the drop off is steep.
Finally, the secondary for the Vikings suffered the most turnover from 2019, but one constant also happens to be a top 15 DB in IDP over the past few years, Harrison Smith! Smith, who averaged 11.7 fppg last year, has really made his hay on the big play! In 2019, Smith had 85 tackles, 3 INT, 11 PD, 3 FF, 2 FR, 1 sack, and 4 TFL. While he may not have the huge tackle numbers, his presence is felt all over the field, and should be drafted accordingly. Currently being drafted as a top 10 DB, if he happens to underproduce in the big play categories, a DB2 type season is possible. But as mentioned before, with the heavy turnover felt in the secondary, he may be asked to help out more over the top.
That is all for this week folks! Stay safe out there and as always, if you have any comments or questions, you can reach me @natemarcum on twitter. Also, check out the 4th and frames podcast where we go over the NFC North by clicking here!