IDP Impact in the NFC East

Welcome, 4EYEDfans!  I hope you all are staying safe!  I know the Fantasy In Frames crew is preparing for football, and I hope you are as well!

Welcome to the 8th installment of my new series, titled “IDP Impact,” where I will take you from division to division, highlighting the IDP relevant players for each team.  A team-based approach focusing on the scheme, with attention to the offensive side of the ball, should help us identify my personal favorite IDP safe plays and deep dive targets.

For this installment, we will head to the NFC EAST!

Dallas Cowboys

The 2020 Dallas Cowboys definitely will have a new look.  First, they brought in Mike McCarthy to replace Jason Garret.  On defense, they say goodbye to Rod Marinelli, and hello to Mike Nolan.  In addition to Nolan, the defensive changes also include John Fassel as the new ST coach and Jim Tomsula as the D-line coach.  These changes are important, not to just bring a new philosophy, but also because of the impact that the shortened season could have on the adaptation of the new defensive terminology.

The defensive line will see some new faces in previous 1st round picks, Dontari Poe and Gerald McCoy.  Both are big and physical presences upfront, designed to stop the run, and even improve upon the 11th overall finish from 2019.  While neither are true IDP targets, the hope is that they allow DeMarcus Lawrence to get back to 2018 form (11.7 fppg) where he finished among the leaders at DL.  Lawrence is one of my main bounceback candidates for 2020.  Last year, he was 2nd in the NFL in “win rate”, which is a better determinant of ones’ ability vs just looking at the total number of sacks.  While his win rate was elite, his sack total (5.5) was the lowest of his career when playing in 10 games or more.  On the other hand, his ability to get to the QB effectively led to others having inflated numbers, look at Robert Quinn!  One final reason to believe in the Lawrence bounceback is to recognize that he was playing with multiple injuries (neck, knee, etc) which led to him only playing in 62% of the snaps.  Let’s look at Mike Nolans’ high-pressure philosophy, and I think a 12 sack season isn’t out of the question!

While the D-line is seeing some heavy turnover, the LB core is returning the majority of their players, albeit returning from injury.  The two targets I am focusing on in Dallas are IDP studs!

• Leighton Vander Esch-The good news out of Cowboys camp is that Vander Esch is back and healthy after a scary neck injury in 2019.  Just 1 year removed from a 2018 season that resulted in 140 tackles (102 solo) and 2 INT, resulting in 11.2 fppg, he was off to a blistering start (10+ tackles in 3 of 7 starts).  Fully healthy, it is safe to assume that LVE will deliver on another 100+ tackles and double-digit PD’s.
• Jaylon Smith-In 2018, Smith and Vander Esch were proving to the NFL that they were one of, if not the top LB duos in football.  Fast forward to 2019 and the Vander Esch absence paved the way for Smith to tally 140+ tackles and a Pro-Bowl caliber season.  Getting LVE back is paramount for this defense to succeed, but it will most likely take some of the tackle volume from Smith, but don’t’ think that he will not be IDP worthy!  This year could be very different for Smith, as there are potential scheme changes that could benefit Jaylon’s skill set.  https://twitter.com/SlaterNFL/status/1252667187019554819?s=20  Read here for more information on the possible changes.  Most importantly to his success will be the ability to rush the passer.  Nolan has historically been a lot more blitz-happy than Marinelli. If Smith moves to the outside, don’t expect 120+ tackles, but do expect a sack total probably doubling!  His 13.8 fppg last year, in my opinion, is the ceiling if all LB are healthy.

The secondary for the Cowboys will see the addition of Ha Ha Clinton Dix to join Xavier Woods at safety.  Woods can carry some stand-along value at DB after he registered 8.5 fppg last season with 70+ tackles, 2 INT, 5PD, and 1 FF.

 

Philadelphia Eagles 

 

The Philadelphia Eagles and DC Jim Schwartz might have one of their best defensive units in the past few years.  It has been pretty predictable over the career of Jim Schwartz that his run defense will rank in the top 10, and his pass defense will rank in the bottom 10.  What does this mean for fantasy players?  Well, it typically means that the tackles will be spread around to everyone and most likely there won’t’ be an elite option at any position.  Last year, the leading tackler was the FS (Malcolm Jenkins), and nobody had over 100 tackles.  While this may seem like all doom and gloom, there are some intriguing IDP targets for 2020!

The defensive line may be one of the finest units in the NFL.  Fletcher Cox is an absolute beast, and one of the most dominant interior lineman in the NFL.  2019 was not the most kind to Cox, failing to record only 3.5 sacks and the lowest tackle per game season of his career.  If the Eagles are going to be dominant this year, they need Cox to get back to 2018 production, where he averaged 8.6 fppg on the heels of 10 sacks, 46 tackles and 12 tackles for a loss.

While Fletcher Cox might not have had the year that many were hoping for, Bradon Graham definitely picked up the slack!  Graham averaged 8.7 fppg over the 16 games played last year.  His 8.5 sacks, 50 tackles, and 15 TFL led the team among lineman.  The addition of Javon Hargrave will definitely help to stop the run and could free up Graham and Cox a little more than last year.  On the other end of the line is Derek Barnett, who Fletcher Cox fully supports, yet doesn’t have any IDP appeal.

The LB core is definitely one that would appear to be a weakness on paper, and will most likely demonstrate on the field as well.  The only player with any IDP appeal at all is Nathan Gerry.  Gerry was 2nd on the team in tackles last year despite only playing in 61% of the snaps.  While his true value will come as the Eagles’ only 3-down linebacker, the Eagles fans can’t be happy to have them as their #1.  With an increase in snaps, Gerry will need to clean up the missed tackles (15%) if he wants to stay on the field.

The Eagles did address the secondary in a true football manner, regardless of IDP appeal.  Darius Slay gives them a true shutdown corner, and as we have learned, a shut-down corner isn’t an IDP target that I am aiming for.

 

Washington Football Team

 

Wow, the first article that I had to write Washington Football Team.  Now that we got that out of the way, let’s take a look at the defense for the Red….er, I mean WFT.  This will be the beginning of a brand new regime for Washington, beginning with the hire of Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio.  Last year they were the 27th ranked defense (18th vs the pass/ 31st v the run), and there is optimism on the horizon.  For a team that is +30000 to win the Super Bowl, there are definitely some intriguing IDP targets!

Let’s start with the front 7, which will be one of the most exciting units in all of football!

• Montez Sweat-By all accounts, I think it is safe to see Sweat as a player to watch for 2020.   In his first year in the league, he registered 50 tackles, 7 sacks, and 8 TFL.  Not exactly world-shattering numbers, but good for 7.2 fppg in his rookie season.  The Del Rio defense will be a lot more blitz heavy than last year, which should lend to an uptick in Sweats’ sack totals.
• Johnathan Allen-A powerful force off of the edge in 2019 that averaged 8.6 fppg.  68 tackles and 6 sacks in 15 games last year after an 8 sack, 60 tackle season in 2018 gives me optimism for another step in production.  The biggest question will be the rotation that Del Rio uses.  The move to a 4-3 defense likely puts Allen as a DT, which would cap his upside quite a bit.
• Matthew Ioannidis-The dude is a monster and the rest of the league is starting to take notice!  You know who else is taking notice, the creators of Madden 21!  They have Ioannidis listed as the 2nd strongest player in the game with a 98 overall rating.  While that doesn’t necessarily translate into IDP relevance, it is indicative of the type of player that you’re going to get.  He generated 8.5 sacks last year from the middle of the line, and added in 64 tackles and 11 TfL for good measure.  Again, what can we expect from a switch to the 4-3?  I would guess similar production and a heavy share of the snaps.
• Chase Young-The most exciting piece to the 4-3 puzzle this year in my opinion.  You can read more about Chase Young here
• Ryan Kerrigan-Bounceback candidate for 2020.  Kerrigan hadn’t dipped below 9 sacks in the previous 5 years, but only played in 12 games in 2019.  All we have to do in rewind the clock to the 2018 season where Kerrigan had one of the highest “win-rates” per ESPN, in addition to ranking in the top 10 in Pass Rush Production, as measured by PFF.  The talent is there, now it’s time to see how he adopts the Del Rio defense.

Now that I have pretty much every one of the Washington front seven listed as targets, let’s take a look at the remaining piece to this IDP breakdown.  Landon Collins.  

Collins led the team in tackles in his first year with Washington (117) and finished the season as a DB1 scoring 12.2 fppg.  Coming over from the Giants, he has only had 1 season in which he hasn’t eclipsed the 100 tackle plateau.  I fully expect the team to utilize Collins to his potential by playing up in the box and taking advantage of his big play-big hitting ability.  One of the most stable and consistent DB options available.  Invest early

 

New York Giants

 

New Coach Joe Judge is bringing in Patrick Graham to help turnaround a defense that was ranked 30th last year overall, with a 28th ranked defense vs the pass and 20th vs the run.  What kind of defense Graham will utilize is the biggest question.  When asked if they will run a 4-3, he said “yes”, when asked if it would be a 3-4, he had the same answer.  The defensive variety could benefit a few of the players, who never seemed to be utilized to their full potential.

The defensive line, regardless of the formation, is one that is not stacked with IDP relevant players.  Leonard Williams, who was brought over from the Jets, is a big presence in the middle, but not one who fantasy drafters will look at.  Dalvin Tomlinson and Dexter Lawrence are both afterthoughts in drafts but could help open up some lanes for the linebackers and edge rushers.

Marcus Golden is one of the linebackers that could benefit greatly from a blitz-heavy, multi-schemed approach.  Golden is coming off of a year in which he had 10 sacks, 72 tackles, and 13 TFL.  While the 72 tackles were a career-high, the 1:1 (solo to assist total) leave a little to be desired. I believe that last year is most likely his ceiling, seeing as how he played in 83% of the snaps last year.  Lorenzo Carter is another LB if given the proper situation, could improve upon his 2019 season.  Last year, Carter was asked to play multiple positions, which may explain why, despite playing more games in 2019 vs 2018, his overall numbers didn’t improve drastically.

The LB who will be tasked with keeping the unit’s head above water this year is Blake Martinez.  The 5th year player out of Stanford was the marquee signing of the offseason for the G-Men.  Coming off of his 3rd straight 144+ tackle season, Martinez is in line to see significant work as has been the norm while in GB.  Martinez played the 9th most snaps of any ILB last year (1,024) and the 5th most in 2018 (1,050).  A true 3-down back that grades out as an excellent tackler, and is above average in coverage.  His 13.9 fppg was good for the top 10 among LB and should see a comparable role and output in 2020.

Finally, the player who could benefit the most from the switch to Graham’s defensive scheme is S Jabrill Peppers.  Peppers, entering his 2nd year with the Giants, was a key piece in the trade for Odell Beckham Jr from the Browns.  Expected to play the primary SS role with New York, his run-stopping and big-play ability are best suited for the Cover-1 that Graham has utilized in the past.  In just 11 games, he put up similar numbers to what he totaled in 16 games in 2018.  Averaging 11.8 fppg, his 76 tackles were just 3 shy of the 79 he totaled in 2019.  While the 3 FF is not an easy stat to assume, the presence in the box and his ability to get to the ball carrier could provide for a very stable floor and a potential elite DB1 upside.  Alongside Peppers will be Xavier McKinney.  McKinney is one of my favorite dynasty DB’s entering 2020.  He has the chance to make an impact in 2020!  I have already written about McKinney in my rookies to target article, which you can read here. 

 

 

That wraps up my series!  I have taken you around the NFL and hopefully provided you with some IDP Targets!  I hope if you are reading this that you are as excited about the upcoming IDP season as I am!  If you have any questions or comments, you can reach me @natemarcum on twitter, or here at Fantasy In Frames.