IDP Impact in the AFC West
Welcome, 4EYEDfans! I hope you all are staying safe! I know the Fantasy In Frames crew is preparing for football, and I hope you are as well!
Welcome to the 4th installment of my new series, titled “IDP Impact,” where I will take you from division to division, highlighting the IDP relevant players for each team. A team-based approach focusing on the scheme, with attention to the offensive side of the ball, should help us identify my personal favorite IDP safe plays and deep dive targets.
For this installment, we will head to the AFC WEST!
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos enter 2020 poised to repeat and improve upon a successful 2019. The defense under HC Vic Fangio and DC Ed Donatell was ranked 10th in overall defense, 12th in yards allowed, 11th in passing yards allowed, 16th in rushing yards, and was 1st overall in Red Zone defense. The lone blemish on the season was the lack of turnovers, as they only forced 17 total, which was 26th overall.
The Broncos defensive line, going into this offseason, appeared to be a weakness. They lost Derek Wolfe, arguably Denver’s best d-lineman, to the Baltimore Ravens, but immediately replaced him with Jurrell Casey, the Pro Bowler from Tennessee. In addition to Casey, they also signed Christian Covington and drafted McTelvin Agim. Pair those additions with Mike Purcell and Shelby Harris, and you not only replace the loss of Derek Wolfe but actually provide much-needed depth at the position.
The secondary for the Broncos, in terms of IDP, is led by FS Justin Simmons (10.3 fppg) and SS Kareem Jackson (10.2 fppg). This is possibly the best safety tandem in the NFL, and both should be owned in IDP formats. The Broncos did lose, Chris Harris, to the rival Chargers, which is a big blow to the defense but doesn’t mean much in the IDP world. To help alleviate the loss of Harris, Denver is going to have to find someone who can take on those slot assignments. While it won’t be in the slot, the trade for A.J. Bouye could pay dividends for the defense as a whole if he can return to the 2018 form, where he was PFF’s 13th best coverage corner.
While the defensive line has improved its’ depth, and the secondary has 2 IDP stalwarts in Simmons and Jackson, its the LB’s who could provide the most value in IDP formats this year. Let’s begin with a nearly undrafted LB last year, who went on to be one of the top scorers. That is none other than Todd Davis. Davis displays great sideline to sideline speed and is one of the better run stoppers in the league. Coming off of back to back 110+ tackle seasons, Davis is currently an afterthought among LB’s, despite 134 tackles in only 14 games. If you’re going to wait on LB, which I encourage, Davis could return LB1 value with a late-round price tag.
It’s not just Todd Davis that could be a bargain on draft day. Bradley Chubb, coming off of a shortened 2019 season due to a torn ACL, was pacing 11.8 fppg before his season-ending surgery. In addition to Chubb, Von Miller is quickly becoming another value pick in IDP drafts. Coming off of his lowest sack total since his injury-shortened 2013 season, many are starting to write off Miller as a top tier fantasy contributor, but I believe we could see a rebound this year. The loss of Chubb last year really put a lot of attention back on Miller. This year, with a healthy Chubb, and Miller in the “best shape of career”, I believe a return to 14+ sack form is entirely plausible. If you’re like me, and most like loading up my Flex spots with LB, sit back and jump on Miller while others think last year is a sign of things to come.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers enter 2020 as one of the more desirable defensive units in fantasy drafts. Coming off of a season in which they finished ranked 14th in overall defense, they struggled against the run (18th in yards allowed), allowing 15 rushing TD’s (8th most). Despite their struggles on the ground, the pass defense was one of the better units in the league (5th fewest yards allowed).
The secondary was definitely a major strength for the defense, as mentioned above, despite a league-low 14 turnovers. The addition of Chris Harris Jr should definitely help the lack of turnovers (20 career Int, 6 career FF). Most likely lining up in the slot, Harris will no longer be a thorn in Keenan Allen’s side, yet he will continue to pester the likes of Hunter Renfroe, KJ Hamler, etc. On the outside will be Casey Heyward and Desmond King, but if either slack in coverage, don’t be surprised to see Harris lining up all over (99% of defensive snaps in 2019). If I am going to discuss the Chargers secondary, there truly is only 1 IDP worth mentioning…Derwin James. James, quite possibly the first DB taken in drafts, is coming off of a season in which he never really got to prove that his rookie season was no fluke! Coming off of a foot injury that limited him to 5 games last year, James is looking forward to 2020 to show that he is worthy of the hype. His 2018 All-Pro season was filled with promise! 105 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT, 4 TFL, and 13 PD. If you’re looking to invest early at DB, I think it’s safe to say that James should be at the top of your list.
Despite their struggles against the run, the front line is filled with intriguing IDP targets. Melvin Ingram is a legit DL #2 with the upside to be a DL #1 come season’s end. After playing 16 games in 4 straight seasons, he missed 3 games last year to a hamstring injury. With a full season, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him approach the double-digit sack totals. His 5 PD’s last year in 13 games was pacing a career year. On the other side of the line is my IDP target…Joey Bosa
Bosa played in all 16 games last year for just the second time in his career. After his 2017 season in which he set the league on fire with 12.5 sacks, 70 tackles, and 11 TFL, many wondered just how much better his 2018 season could be. It started off extremely well but ended with a foot injury that cost him the final 9 weeks of the season. Bosa, the 3rd overall pick, didn’t let it get him down and returned to the field in 2019 with something to prove. He proved that he definitely belongs in the DL#1 territory, tallying 11.5 sacks, 67 tackles, 1 FF, and 18 TFL. This season, his current ADP is as the #3 DL off the board, trailing his brother Nick, and with a definite chip on his shoulder to be the big dog in the Bosa house!
Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders (wow that sounds weird), are in an interesting position this year! To begin, their defense catapulted from the 32nd ranked D in 2018 to the 24th ranked defense in 2019. Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that a 24th overall finish is something to write home about, but progress is progress. The biggest improvement comes in the form of the rush defense, where they went from 30th in 2018 to 8th overall. This improvement had a lot to do with their strength up front in the rookie additions of Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby. Those two rookies combined for more sacks (14.5) than they had in 2018 (13). Speaking of Maxx Crosby, he is definitely one of the more intriguing IDP DL this year. Last year he averaged 9.8 fppg by totaling 10 sacks, 46 tackles (35 solos), 4 PD, and 16 TFL! Going into week 5, Crosby hadn’t seen a snap share above 60%, but from week 5 on, he never received less than 60%. In that time frame, from week 5-17, Mad Maxx was the 5th DL overall, via FantasyPros IDP scoring metrics. I love Crosby this year and would feel comfortable with you taking him to anchor your DL, but he will only cost you a DL2 selection!
While the Raiders made huge strides in the rush defense, the passing defense is going to want to improve upon the pass defense, which they ranked 25th in yards allowed. The group of defensive backs for Las Vegas isn’t made up of IDP relevant players, but the addition of Damarious Randall could be someone to pay attention to. He averaged 9.5 fppg with Cleveland last year before signing on with LV after Karl Joseph moved on. Not currently being drafted in most IDP leagues, he is one of the better ball-hawking safeties, hence why he played CB in Green Bay and has the chance to complement the tackles with some INT (16 career) and PD’s.
Good pass defense isn’t entirely on the backs of the secondary, the linebacking group will need to improve in that area if the Raiders want to compete this year. Tahir Whitehead, the Raiders’ leading tackler from 2018 is gone to Carolina, but despite leading the team in tackles, he only had 1 PD and was the worst graded LB in coverage for the Raiders. How do you improve an area of weakness? Go out and sign one of the leagues’ best coverage LB, Cory Littleton. Littleton was PFF’s 7th best coverage LB in 2019. Not only dangerous in coverage, Littleton a playmaker all over the field! He was 13th among LB in Solo Tackles, 8th in assisted tackles, had 9 PD’s, 3.5 sacks, and 5.5 TFL. Overall he averaged 14.5 fppg and should be one of the first LB selected in 2020.
Kansas City Chiefs
The defending Super Bowl Champs are ready to roll in 2020! In a state of such confusion and unknown, returning 91% of your starters gives you quite the advantage! The only key loss to the defense is Reggie Ragland and Kendall Fuller, who played a combined 26 games last year. Steve Spagnuolo has really turned this defense from a porous sieve that was terrible against the run, into a true defensive force! From weeks 1-4, the Chiefs allowed an average of 474 total yards, and 23 points a game. From that point on, their defense only allowed more than 400 total yards TWICE! While I would say their turnaround could be contributed to a full belief in Spags’ system, there were obviously some integral players.
The Chiefs were wise to re-sign, maybe, the most impactful player on that defensive unit! Chris Jones. Jones is coming off of a season in which he averaged 8.5 fppg over 13 games. In those games, he had 9 sacks, 9.5 TFL, 4 PD’s, and most importantly just wreaked havoc on opposing QB. While nose tackle isn’t exactly the most hyped position to draft IDP DL from, Jones is one of the few options after the edge rushers are all picked clean. Speaking of edge rushers, Frank Clark is another intriguing option for IDP relevance. Frank Clark was the big offseason trade for the Chiefs entering the 2019 season and had lofty expectations. Coming off of a season in 2018 in which he registered double-digit sacks and was smack in the middle of the DL2 discussion, Clark was ready to take over for the losses of Dee Ford and Justin Houston. Clarks’ 9.4 fppg was just behind the league leaders at the position, and he should be in a position to replicate those numbers, and to be honest, with the turmoil and lack of OTA’s, it wouldn’t shock me to see this defensive unit jump out early against offensive units just trying to click.
The final piece to the Chiefs’ puzzle roams the middle of the field like an angry HoneyBadger. He also controls the defense and makes sure his teammates control their space, similar to how a Landlord would control his tenants. This is none other than Tyrann Mathieu. While he still honors the HoneyBadger nickname, he feels that he shaking that moniker and taking on the leadership role, as well as the Landlord nickname, is the desired goal. There is no denying that he has earned the self-appointed nickname, and hopes it catches on around the league. Mathieu was 3rd among safeties last year in passes defended (12), along with 2 sacks (9th among all DB’s), and the 3rd most INT’s (3). Last year Mathieu average 9.7 ppg, which is pretty amazing for a guy who isn’t known to rack up triple-digit tackles. While the IDP landscape at DB is littered with high tackle volume, the Landlord might just be the one paying the rent with your DB2 spot this year.
