Welcome, 4EYEDfans! I hope you all are staying safe! I know the Fantasy In Frames crew is preparing for football, and I hope you are as well!
Welcome to the 3rd installment of my new series, titled “IDP Impact,” where I will take you from division to division, highlighting the IDP relevant players for each team. A team-based approach focusing on the scheme, with attention to the offensive side of the ball, should help us identify my personal favorite IDP safe plays and deep dive targets.
For this second installment, we will head to the AFC SOUTH!
Tennessee Titans
The Titans had an incredible 2019 season but fell short in the AFC Championship. Despite the season-ending on a defensively sour note, there is optimism ahead for the Titans! They finished 2019 ranked 12th in Points allowed, but 21st in yards allowed, a real “bend but don’t break” defense. While the Titans were 12th against the run, they were a lowly 24th vs. the pass. While many attributes this to their overall failure to put constant pressure on the QB (25th in pressure%) per https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/opp.htm, they still finished 13th in sacks and 8th in int.
Heading into 2019, the Titans didn’t exactly make a huge splash in the FA pool. They brought in Vic Beasley to add to that pass rush at a pretty decent bargain. Beasley might not be trending in the right direction, but he does have a 15 sack season to his credit and was one of the more efficient pass rushers in the league last year. Beasley averaged 7fppg last year and was a decent DL3, and could replicate those same numbers under Vrabel.
While the Titans added Beasley to the mix, they did lose a pretty important piece to their success last year in Logan Ryan. Ryan set career highs last year in tackles (120), sacks (4.5), and FF (4). In fact, he is the only CB in the last decade to have at least 4 sacks, interceptions, and forced fumbles. Ryan played all over the field, and while his coverage grade rated 80th by PFF, the IDP format caters to highly targeted players. (114 target, #1 in NFL)
Heading into 2020, the Titans are optimistic that they will improve despite the loss of Logan Ryan. The secondary is one of the bright spots for this team. Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler on the outside, with Kenny Vaccaro and Kevin Byard at Safety, could wreak havoc on opposing passing games. As I have mentioned in previous articles, the CB position isn’t one that generally produces in most IDP formats, so I can’t recommend either Butler or Jackson. If there is one person in the secondary that I could see myself restoring, it would be Kevin Byard. He is always around the ball (9 pass defended/5 INT’s) and is a solid tackler. He averaged 9.5 fppg and is currently going outside of the top 36 and could return value.
While the secondary will serve as a strength, the benefactor of that will be my choice for IDP relevance on Tennessee, Jayon Brown.
Jayon Brown, entering his 4th year, is coming off, statistically, his best year. He played in 14 games, yet was among the top 24 in solo tackles, Combined tackles and passes defended by LB. Brown is in a position to even improve on the type of season he had in 2019. Barring injury, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish as a strong LB2 with the upside of an LB1. According to PFF, he grades out as an elite coverage LB, which helps me in determining his snap shares going forward. One also has to wonder that if the Titans take a little step back on their offensive efficiency if that will give Brown a few more opportunities.
Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts had quite the odd 2019. The forecast for the season was optimistic! They were coming off of a 2018 Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs, but felt the pieces were coming together! They had the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year and the AP Comeback Player of the year! They DID….until Andrew Luck decided to retire before the season started. Luckily for the Colts, they still have one of those players, and he is one hell of a player!
The 2020 Colts are looking to bounce back after that “odd” 2019 season than ended with a 7-9 season and a missed playoff berth. All is not lost tho. In the offseason, they made a massive trade with the 49ers to acquire DeForest Buckner. Buckner is a presence in the middle of that D-Line. He led all defensive tackles last year with 9.6 fppg and will be one of the few tackles drafted alongside the ever-popular defensive ends. Buckner isn’t the only new addition to the team, as they also acquired Xavier Rhodes and T.J Carrie to help bolster the secondary.
Overall, the defensive unit is looking to bounce back from, what they would consider, a disappointing season. They finished 16th overall in yards allowed while finishing 22nd against the pass. On a positive note, the Colts were successful last year against the run, finishing 7th. Buckner will not only help stuff the run in Indy’s 4-3 scheme, but his ability to get to the QB (28 sacks) will also ease some of the burdens the secondary faced in 2019.
I briefly mentioned a player earlier that should need no introduction, Darius Leonard! Quite possible that Leonard is the 1st player taken in an IDP league, and rightfully so! Let’s just start with the superlatives. In 28 games at the NFL level, Leonard has 7 INT, 284 Combined Tackles (182 solo), 15 PD’s, 6 FF’s, 2 FR’s, 12 Sacks, 19 TFL’s, and 1 Touchdown. He averaged 17 fppg last year in 13 games, and this year he adds Buckner up the middle to clear some space. While IDP drafting strategies may vary from person to person, and from league to league, there is no denying that Darius Leonard will most definitely be at the top of my list this year!
Houston Texans
Entering the 2020 season, the Texans are an enigma. Some would consider 2019 a success, seeing as they won the division, and lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champs. While others see that final game against the Chiefs as a blown opportunity and a good jumping-off point in regards to upgrading a defense that squandered a 28 point lead. I tend to lean towards the latter. Fast forward to the offseason, and all I can do is scratch my head in wonder? Do the Texans address the defense? No, they put more pressure on the defense by trading away arguably the best WR in the league (DeAndre Hopkins) and then trading away draft capital for Brandon Cooks.
There may be positives tho in all of this. If the offense takes a step back, theoretically, the defense will be on the field more, leading to more opportunity for IDP relevance. So who benefits from this, and most importantly, who is worth your valuable draft capital? Let’s start with the obvious, yet the riskiest pick across the IDP landscape. J.J Watt! From 2011 to 2015, there might not have been a better player over that stretch. He compiled 74.5 sacks, 132 TFL, 45 PD’s, 371 tackles, and 15 Forced Fumbles. Needless to say, he was an IDP stud. As you notice, I use the term “was,” but it hurts me to do so. Watt has missed 32 games over the past four years to multiple injuries but still can be a game-changer if healthy. (see 2018 when he led the league in FF and was 2nd in sacks with 16.5). If you decide to invest in Watt, maybe the ADP this year will have his extensive injury risk baked in a little more than usual, but I think that I will most likely avoid at his current cost.
While Watt may provide the high risk-high reward upside, I like to focus more on the low risk-high upside type plays. That player for Houston is none other than Benardrick McKinney. Ironically, I use injuries to downgrade Watt, yet McKinney is recovering from off-season ankle surgery, and he is my “safe” play. What gives? Let’s first start with the surgery. It was the arthroscopic variety, which lends to the speedier and more reliable recovery. Let’s also look at last year, and assume that the ankle had a lot to do with his lower than normal defensive grade via PFF.
Let’s take a more in-depth look at why McKinney is capable of being a sleepy steal later in drafts. Over the past four years, he has averaged 107 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 7 TFL, and 4 PD’s. While I can understand the case being made for his teammate Zach Cunningham to be the preferred choice, I think McKinney offers the higher ceiling.
Jacksonville Jaguars
To use the phrase, “How the mighty have fallen” might be a bit excessive, it can pretty much sum up the Jacksonville Jaguars. It wasn’t but three years ago that Sacksonville was a thing! If Jags fans had any clue that following that devastating 24-20 loss to the Patriots in 2017, Jacksonville would have a combined 11 wins in 2018 and 2019, there would be disbelief.
Fast forward to the 2020 season, and I believe we are in for phase 1 of the rebuilding process happening in Florida. The rebuilding began with a teardown of the infrastructure of, what once was, the most defense in the league. The 2017 AFC South Champions were led by Pro-Bowl corners Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Along the defensive line were three more Pro Bowlers; Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue, and Malik Jackson. It is that kind of dominance that the city of Jacksonville was expecting for years to come. That expectation was quickly laid to rest, as the Jags moved A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey in exchange for draft picks. Calais Campbell was the next domino to fall via a trade to Baltimore. And the final piece, Yannick Ngakoue, is bound to be traded at some point this year. If he isn’t and plays this year in Jacksonville, he is one to monitor, coming off of a 2019 season that resulted in 10 ppg, which was top 10 among DL.
It’s not all gloom and doom for the Jags, they are returning veteran linebacker Myles Jack, albeit in a new role this year. Jack will be moving from his traditional MLB role this year to make way for a shiny new toy for Todd Wash (defensive coordinator) and co. Also returning is the 7th overall pick in 2019, Josh Allen. Allen is most definitely a player to watch this year. Coming off of a rookie season in which he was 2nd among all rookies in QB pressures, and had accumulated a rookie franchise record, 10.5 sacks, all the while only playing in 60% of the team snaps. With the Ngakoue situation in the air, I fully expect Allen to improve upon his 8 fppg in 2019 and be someone to target in 2020.
I mentioned a shiny new toy for Todd Wash and the Jags defense, that would be none other than Joe Schobert! Last year, he led all MLB with 14.6 fantasy ppg. Taking over the middle of the field, once occupied by Myles Jack, Schobert should have passes funneled his way and will be vital in slowing down the run, an area of concern (28th in rush yds allowed). For the past three years, Schobert has been an LB1 and will continue to be one of the first LB off the board in 2020.
I will be very intrigued to see who wins in the battle of Todd Wash and Doug Marrone when it comes to the defensive scheme. Many pundits are predicting a switch to the 3-4 scheme, which is probably best suited to fit the athletic profile of the team, but Todd Wash says the rumors are untrue, and they will stay with their base 4-3. Pay attention as the season unfolds!
