Welcome, 4EYEDfans! I hope you all are staying safe! I know the Fantasy In Frames crew is preparing for football, and I hope you are as well!
This is the 2nd installment of my new series, titled “IDP Impact“, where I will take you from division to division, highlighting the IDP relevant players for each team. A team-based approach focusing on the scheme, with attention to the offensive side of the ball, should help us identify my personal favorite IDP safe plays and deep dive targets.
For this second installment, we will head to the AFC NORTH!
Cleveland Browns
The Browns enter 2020 with an optimistic outlook after a lackluster 2019, on both sides of the ball. While mentioning Cleveland’s lackluster seasons seems like a pretty common situation, the voices have quieted a little heading into 2020. First of all, the Browns have a new Defensive Coordinator! Joe Woods, who had spent 8 years in Minnesota with new Browns’ coach Kevin Stefanski, takes the reins this year with hopes of a return to dominance. A return to dominance that Browns’ fans have been waiting on for nearly a decade. While Woods is a welcome addition, the Browns did have a significant subtraction. Joe Schobert left for Jacksonville. Last year, Schobert was 1st on the Browns in Tackles (Solo and Assist), Interceptions, and 2nd in passes defensed. The defense must get over that loss before they can truly turn the corner, but there are reasons for hope!
In 2019, under Steve Wilks, the Browns ranked 20th in Points Allowed and 22nd in yards allowed. While the season as a whole appeared bleak, there were areas of optimism! The pass defense was ranked 7th, allowing an average of 216 yards per game. The secondary was, and is, a work in progress. Denzel Ward kept opposing quarterbacks to a 44.9% completion percentage when throwing into his coverage — the best mark among cornerbacks in 2019, per PFF. In the world of IDP, being a shutdown corner that QB’s don’t want to throw at, isn’t exactly helpful. Joe Woods inherits an already good secondary, and with his background as a DB/passing game coordinator, could turn it into one of the more feared units in the NFL. Karl Joseph, coming over from Oakland, appears to be in a position of IDP relevance. His 6.5 fantasy ppg last year had him as a low-end DB3, and in the right system, like I think Woods will have in Cleveland, Joseph is one to keep an eye on.
While the passing game was definitely something to be optimistic about, the run defense was about as bad as you could imagine. The Browns allowed an embarrassing 144.7 yards per game (30th overall). Wilks had changed the defensive scheme last year into a hybrid 4-2-5 alignment, that left too many holes, as well as an undersized unit to successfully stop the run. This year, Woods is going back to the basics, and utilizing a core 4-3 with the focus on stopping the run, and benefiting from a secondary that can give the edge rushers time to get to the QB.
Last year, the Browns blitzed 221 times (7th in NFL), yet were 20th in sacks. The inefficiency is an area of focus that Woods wants to improve upon, and the key to being successful is my IDP Target: Myles Garrett
Obviously, after last year, the first thing that pops into our heads when speaking of Garrett is the helmet incident against Pittsburgh. With that lapse of judgment behind him, Myles can focus on 2020 and give us that elite production from the edge that we all expect him to have. Currently going off the board as the 6th DL in ADP, the upside and solid floor is all the belief I need to invest heavily. The key to his success this year will be Woods’ approach at having Garrett moving to a 5/6 technique, a la J.J. Watt! Garrett was already on pace for a career season with 10 sacks, 2 FF, and nearly 30 tackles in only 10 games! Invest Invest Invest
Cincinnati Bengals
In case you weren’t paying attention, the Bengals had a pretty significant offseason! For starters, you may have heard they drafted a guy named Joe Burrow. What you may not have heard is that they actually went out and spent nearly $140M in upgrading a team that ranked 29th overall in defense. Now, just because you spend money, doesn’t necessarily guarantee marked improvement, but considering they were 29th in yards allowed, and dead last against the run, there really isn’t much room to do worse!
Defensive Coordinator Lou Anarumo has ditched the 4-3 defense that the Marvin Lewis regime had in place for as long as we all can remember. Enter the new 3-4 hybrid defense and the newest members of the defense, and we have optimism in Cincy!
The first key piece to the defense turning around was to upgrade the secondary, and that they did! Trae Waynes was brought in from Minnesota and immediately improves a CB group that was blamed pretty heavily for the NFL worst 7.4 Net Yards per attempt. In addition to Waynes, they also brought in Vonn Bell to help at Safety. Speaking of safety, one of my favorite players at SS this year is Shawn Williams. Williams currently has and ADP per MFL of 21st among DB’s, but presents sneaky upside. Last year, Williams logged the most snaps of his career and turned those 1,024 into 114 tackles (career-high). Playing across multiple positions definitely helped his stock last year, and I think the improvements on the DL should help put him in some creative positions to make plays! It was just 2018 when Williams has 100+ tackles and 5 INT.
Speaking of DL improvement, D.J. Reader might be the biggest addition not named Joe Burrow. Reader comes from Houston, where he was an absolute disruptor on the line. In that 3-4 hybrid D that Cincinnati is going to scheme around, the combo of Reader, Geto Atkins, Sam Hubbard, and Carlos Dunlap make for a very dangerous line! The other key player on the Bengals that I like at his current ADP is Carlos Dunlap. Currently going at pick 21, Dunlap is capable of returning top 12 value this year. For starters, Reader is going to clog up the middle, allowing Dunlap to do what he does best, rush the passer. But don’t be mistaken, Dunlap can do it all! He had the 2nd most tackles in his career last year with 63, had 9 sacks, and 8 passes defensed….in only 14 games!
Baltimore Ravens
When evaluating the Ravens, the only thing that comes to mind is SCARY! Let’s take a look at a defense that ranked 3rd last year in points allowed, 4th in Yards, 6th against the Pass, 5th against the run, led the league in Blitz % (11%higher than #2) and only allowed 15 TD’s all season. THEY ARE GOING TO BE BETTER THIS YEAR!
While it’s hard to imagine a situation where a defense ranked so high among all valuations could get better, but there is a compelling case!
Exhibit A: OFFSEASON MOVES! The Ravens weren’t complacent this offseason. They recognized that despite being 5th in rushing yards against, they allowed a below-average 4.4 ypc. So what did they do to address the issue? They went out and signed Derek Wolfe and traded for Calais Campbell.
Wolfe, an 8-year veteran, is coming off, arguably, his best season with the Broncos. It’s also hard to say his best season when it was cut short to only 12 games, but in those 12 games, he racked up 7 sacks, 34 tackles, and was dominant against the run.
Just adding a player like Wolfe would have been enough to think the Ravens have a chance to improve upon last year, but Baltimore traded their 5th round pick to Jacksonville for Calais Campbell. This move wasn’t even just a good “on the field” move, it was just as good “off the field”. Campbell was the NFL’s “Walter Payton Man of the Year” in 2019. While this article isn’t about the humanitarian, it does bode well for his locker room presence, which always benefits the defense as a whole. Campbell’s presence on the field was obvious. He averaged 8.5 ppg, 6.5 sacks, 2FF, 56 tackles and 1 TD. Another strong presence up front that is a more than capable run stopper.
Exhibit B: 2020 Draft. The Ravens absolutely crushed the 2020 draft! Most importantly, they shored up a general weakness at LB! The fact that there is a weakness at LB is something that hasn’t been said in regards to Baltimore for more than a decade and a half. Obviously the great Ray Lewis manned the middle of the field en route to Canton. His successor, CJ Mosley, filled in admirably for another 7 years at a Pro Bowl level. The next in line is one of my favorite IDP players that can be had as my LB3. That is Patrick Queen!
Patrick Queen, the Ravens’ 1st round pick (28th) is a steal! Coming off a Jr season at LSU that resulted in 85 total tackles, 12 TFL, 3 sacks, and an INT. Don “Wink” Martindale has stated that he is pretty confident in turning over the Mike position to Queen, despite having not met him in person since the draft. The “Mike” is responsible for calling plays and must be on the field for the majority of the downs, which is always ideal for IDP scoring. In redraft leagues, I can see Queen finishing as a top 12 LB, but there is no doubt that he is a dynasty stud!
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are doing their best impression of the Steel Curtain defense of the ’70s as of late! The Steelers finished 2019 6th in Points Allowed, 5th in Yards Allowed, and 1st in Turnovers! Keith Butler’s defense definitely overcame some serious offensive woes. The Steelers’ offense was ranked 32nd in the number of plays, which as a result, forced their defensive unit on the field more than anyone would prefer. Granted, with more time on the field, there are more opportunities for IDP scoring, but positive game scripts are definitely preferred for the defense.
The Steelers didn’t lose much personnel from 2019, only Javon Hargrove (NT), but the return of Stephon Tuitt and the trade for Chris Wormley more than makes us for the loss. With the picks that they had in the 2020 draft, the Steelers mostly addressed the offensive side of the ball after failing to impress last year, and thus, missing the playoffs. The obvious and apparent reason for the poor offensive production is directly tied to the loss of Ben Roethlisberger. With a healthy Big Ben and James Connor, the Steelers look to get back to the playoffs, and most importantly, improve upon the 289 total points they scored last year.
As a unit, the Steelers produced a fair share of IDP relevant players at each position. T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Devin Bush, Bud Dupree, and Minkah Fitzpatrick all finished near the top of the scoring at their respective positions. So what does an improved offense mean for the IDP scoring for the Steelers? Most likely it means that the total numbers should regress some as a result of less opportunity. That is not to say that they can’t be productive, but I do believe that there will be some reaching for players based on last years’ numbers, most likely the takeaway numbers.
So if everyone is likely to regress, who is a draft-day bargain? That person would be Stephon Tuitt
Drafted in the 2nd round of 2014, Tuitt had the makings of a dynamic playmaker on the edge! Fast forward to last year when his season was cut short due to a torn pectoral, and we saw what everyone was waiting for! In only 6 games, Tuitt has 18 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks, 6 TFL, and averaged 9.3 fppg. Considering he has Cameron Heyward on the other end, TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, and Devin Bush at LB, the offense shouldn’t be able to slow them all down. Considering the Steelers blitzed 36% of the time last year and led the NFL in sacks, keeping the offense guessing isn’t going to be tough.
While my endorsement is not one based on elite upside, I do believe there is room for marked improvement, considering he is basically undrafted as we speak. If Tuitt can play a full season, which hasn’t been seen yet, I do believe there is profit to be had!!
That wraps up the IDP Impact In The AFC North. As always, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me @natemarcum on Twitter.
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